Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[matejpi]

Can we please stop talking about robotaxy and FSD in this thread? This debate has been going for several days (and pages) and its not going anywhere (IMHO)...

Thank you.

 

[MarcusMaximus]

TSLA
FB
APPL

Hmm, one CEO each from the good/neutral/evil categories.

 

[SteveG3]

News of Tesla Raising Production? Hurry, time for another note!

3 Key Thoughts by Adam Jonas:

1. We do not expect Tesla production to surpass an anal run-rate of 500k until late 2020. The Bloomberg article, citing the leaked email to Tesla employees from its Automotive President Jerome Guillen, suggested "several" parts of the China assembly line are in already in place. TSLA said in their 1Q19 shareholder letter "Vehicle production will be significantly higher than deliveries" and "If our Gigafactory Shanghai is able to reach volume production early in Q4 this year, we may be able to produce as many as 500,000 vehicles globally in 2019."

2. We expect China to account for less than 200k units of delivery toTesla through 2022. While we anticipate significant pent-up demand for Tesla ́s locally produced vehicles in the PRC, longer-term we expect the Chinese EV market to remain highly competitive and see Tesla ́s China volume peaking at 254k units in 2024, before falling to the 160k to 170k range by 2030.

3. We suspect both bulls and bears to use the near term boost in newsflow/sentiment to sell the stock. Clearly the debate around demand for Tesla ́s products has become less one-sided in recent weeks and appears to be in a fluid situation. That said, we believe the conviction, passion and time horizon of the prevailing bear case in the market may take several more months or quarters to break.

tl;dr back off Jerome, setting your narrative is our turf

 

[MarcusMaximus]

Can we please stop talking about robotaxy and FSD in this thread? This debate has been going for several days (and pages) and its not going anywhere (IMHO)...

Thank you.

In fairness, it is, according to both ARK and Elon Musk, the single most important point in valuing the company.

 

[Todesbuckler]

Just wondering, what are other people holding besides Tesla?

My 2nd/3rd biggest is Amazon and Google...

OT:

I'm also holding:
ING (dutch bank)
Square
Niu Technologies (Electric Scooter premium brand)

Would be happy to discuss Niu Technologies, see my post: What other tech stock to consider?

 

[KarenRei]

Heh heh. Naw. We’ll keep our order for our Eplus. But the model Y is looking really good now.

Glad to see the Chademo adapter available. This will open up routes to Prince George and the Kootenays for BC model 3 owners.

Just like all of the people (*cough*) saying that Tesla wouldn't be building the trans-Canada highway any time soon, only to see construction start just a couple months later. The discussion now shifts to "no Superchargers in central BC". Which of course there probably will be somewhere between late this year and the middle of next year, due to the high adoption rate in BC (expansion follows sales / expected sales)

As I've written many times: the number of Superchargers has doubled in the past two years alone. A person owns a new car for an average of, what, five years? Choosing a car by betting against Supercharger expansion is a really, really dumb idea.

(And yes, now in the meantime there's the CHAdeMO adapter... another thing that I recall people saying would never come, despite regular news about it being in progress).

There is just no reason for this stock not to be skyrocketing right now. Should hit 300 by the end of September. Don't get it....

What the hell do I know?

Deliveries is just half the picture. Need to prove that it can be done with good margins and reasonable SG&A. Don't expect $300 without a solid Q2 report (the markets still seem very pessimistic about the Q2 report - if I remember right, the current expectation is a ~$80M non-GAAP loss / ~$300M GAAP loss - and I wouldn't be surprised if the whisper number is even lower).

 

[Fermi Paradox]

Because I have not seen it being posted here, yet (apologies if I missed it):

"Xinmin Evening News reports today China Quality Certification Center, Shanghai Market Inspection Bureau & Shanghai Free Trade Experiment Zone jointly signs an agreement, allowing foreign automakers in the zone to make cars first b4 being certified later, a favorable policy 4 #Tesla. Since Tesla is the only automaker located in the zone, this new policy is viewed to help #GF3 quickly ramp up production without any potential delay resulting from the usual lengthy certification process." RayTesla️ on Twitter

So to recap how China is pushing Tesla's local production:
1) Tesla secured the first wholly-owned factory for an Auto OEM
2) Tesla partnering with a local bank to offer 0% interest car loans
3) Shanghai is building an industrial park next to GF3 solely to supply Tesla parts
4) The government modified a regulation that simplifies the certification process for Tesla cars

Someone in this forum posted their hypothesis that the Chinese government might use Tesla to push the innovation and quality of the local EV OEMs. This would make them more competitive in the global market and increase the probability of fully replacing the German OEMs in the future. Given the above bullet points, this seems like a sound explanation to me.

Excited to see GF3 being ramped up this fast.

 

[MTL_HABS1909]

You really can’t make this stuff up. I’m now convinced more than ever that BMW won’t make it.... Hans Zimmer is composing BMW's electric cars - RouteNote Blog

 

[KarenRei]

NB You haven't lost anything, unless you sold.

If you're in options, you can easily lose money without selling. Options have time value.

 

[EVNow]

Can we please stop talking about robotaxy and FSD in this thread? This debate has been going for several days (and pages) and its not going anywhere (IMHO)...

Thank you.

Two important things to Tesla are
- FSD
- Batteries
or so EM says.

 

[kbM3]

That line re 500k is old news, put out while Model Y production guidance was for late 2020. I wouldn’t expect any Model Ys in 2019.

fwiw, I suspect the 500k mention in the newsletter was just to give Elon some cover in the midst of the SEC requesting that he be held in contempt for his earlier 500k tweet.

I do agree 2019 seems aggressive.

As far as I recall, Elon has only discussed volume production for late 2020, but then later that it might be sooner at Fremont.

Does anyone recall a date for initial production?

 

[ZeApelido]

I would just like to note that my Tesla car and this thread have entirely sucked the grey matter out of my skull. I had to drive my wife's dinosaur car to Target. When I came out of the store, I realized I left the car running, lights on, and completely unlocked.

But maybe there still is hope for me, I did manage to put it into (P)ark!

 

[VValleyEV]

That's exactly what we did. We bought the M3 for Fsd but never intend to rent it out. The M3 Fsd is a hedge against our inability to safely drive due to advancing age. I only want the car to be able to transport us safely where we want to go. You have your world to make money whereas mine is to enjoy life and the freedom to come and go completely as I wish. Please recognize that my view is likely shared by millions of retired people who can afford new Teslas. We also drove over 45K miles last year because of Tesla as driving is fun again. I think that if people are honest most would admit that their car purchases have not been based on TCO but upon emotion and intangibles. I can admit that I never considered TCO in a car purchase including my P85 but I have been honest when asked if the savings offset the price and said no way. As an investor I hope you are correct on acceptance of Fsd Nd regulatory approval. However I am skeptical.

With apologies to Arlo Guthrie:

I don’t wanna rent out my car,
I just wanna make it home from the bar.

 

[NicoV]

So obvious Jonas pulls figures out of his a$$.

PRC, longer-term we expect the Chinese EV market to remain highly competitive and see Tesla ́s China volume peaking at 254k units in 2024, before falling to the 160k to 170k range by 2030.

These numbers are very accurate, don’t you see the 3 digits accuracy?

 

[ZeApelido]

I do agree 2019 seems aggressive.

As far as I recall, Elon has only discussed volume production for late 2020, but then later that it might be sooner at Fremont.

Does anyone recall a date for initial production?

He's flubbing the entire thing. He's trying to avoid Osborning the X and 3 sales.

Look at when "pencils" down was for the 3, vs initial production date. 1 year. Reveal to initial production was 15 months.

1) They already have started creating space for the Y at Fremont
2) Elon being "indecisive" about Y production location was a ruse
3) Shared parts with 3 (especially battery pack) should make ramp up faster
4) The Model Y will absolutely take away from 3&X sales. And that's okay as long as it takes away sales without delay. If people knew the Y was coming in say 6 months, 3 and X sales right now would get hurt. They really need to limit the time between when people know about Y and when it will be available.

Why on Earth would Musk reveal the Y this year only to have production to start almost 2 years later? Why on Earth would the Reveal - to - Production time be longer than the 3? Meanwhile he was totally downplaying the Y at the reveal. If it wasn't coming until end of 2020, wouldn't it make sense to reveal the Y in early 2020?

And it explains why they are so secretive.

 

[traxila]

Deliveries is just half the picture. Need to prove that it can be done with good margins and reasonable SG&A. Don't expect $300 without a solid Q2 report (the markets still seem very pessimistic about the Q2 report - if I remember right, the current expectation is a ~$80M non-GAAP loss / ~$300M GAAP loss - and I wouldn't be surprised if the whisper number is even lower).

I hear that. But the 'efficient market' and the 'smart money' are supposed to have a basic grasp of what it means to be a disruptive hyper-growth company that is in the process of obliterating its competition on an innovation level while grappling with the problems of improving margins and efficiencies as it scales production at an unheard of level.

Perhaps people here were too optimistic at 350, but TSLA seems plenty cheap right now and what the bears still have to throw at TSLA as their bear thesis is lack of demand, oh and my favorite, China, the country where Tesla as a foreign car company is the first to 100% own its factory that is being constructed at, once again, a record pace, China is a problem for Tesla, the country where very likely 150K plus cars will be produced and delivered in 2020.

Yeah, I hear that. Still think this is cheap cheap cheap until 300. Then it is just cheap.

 

[jerry33]

As I've written many times: the number of Superchargers has doubled in the past two years alone. A person owns a new car for an average of, what, five years? Choosing a car by betting against Supercharger expansion is a really, really dumb idea.

(And yes, now in the meantime there's the CHAdeMO adapter... another thing that I recall people saying would never come, despite regular news about it being in progress).

But this is just the same discussion that happens every single time Tesla doesn't immediately have whatever it is that's wanted. It's been going on for as long as I've been in the forum and it will almost assuredly continue long after I'm gone.

 

[Krugerrand]

News of Tesla Raising Production? Hurry, time for another note!

3 Key Thoughts by Adam Jonas:

1. We do not expect Tesla production to surpass an anal run-rate of 500k until late 2020. The Bloomberg article, citing the leaked email to Tesla employees from its Automotive President Jerome Guillen, suggested "several" parts of the China assembly line are in already in place. TSLA said in their 1Q19 shareholder letter "Vehicle production will be significantly higher than deliveries" and "If our Gigafactory Shanghai is able to reach volume production early in Q4 this year, we may be able to produce as many as 500,000 vehicles globally in 2019."

2. We expect China to account for less than 200k units of delivery toTesla through 2022. While we anticipate significant pent-up demand for Tesla ́s locally produced vehicles in the PRC, longer-term we expect the Chinese EV market to remain highly competitive and see Tesla ́s China volume peaking at 254k units in 2024, before falling to the 160k to 170k range by 2030.

3. We suspect both bulls and bears to use the near term boost in newsflow/sentiment to sell the stock. Clearly the debate around demand for Tesla ́s products has become less one-sided in recent weeks and appears to be in a fluid situation. That said, we believe the conviction, passion and time horizon of the prevailing bear case in the market may take several more months or quarters to break.

*******!

 

[EVNow]

The Model Y will absolutely take away from 3&X sales. And that's okay as long as it takes away sales without delay. If people knew the Y was coming in say 6 months, 3 and X sales right now would get hurt. They really need to limit the time between when people know about Y and when it will be available.

They should do a refresh of S&X just before Y configuration starts. Make S&X more modern & luxurious compared to 3&Y.

Ofcourse one big draw of X are the falcon wings. Y won't have them.

 

[M3Rider]

He's flubbing the entire thing. He's trying to avoid Osborning the X and 3 sales.

Look at when "pencils" down was for the 3, vs initial production date. 1 year. Reveal to initial production was 15 months.

1) They already have started creating space for the Y at Fremont
2) Elon being "indecisive" about Y production location was a ruse
3) Shared parts with 3 (especially battery pack) should make ramp up faster
4) The Model Y will absolutely take away from 3&X sales. And that's okay as long as it takes away sales without delay. If people knew the Y was coming in say 6 months, 3 and X sales right now would get hurt. They really need to limit the time between when people know about Y and when it will be available.

Why on Earth would Musk reveal the Y this year only to have production to start almost 2 years later? Why on Earth would the Reveal - to - Production time be longer than the 3? Meanwhile he was totally downplaying the Y at the reveal. If it wasn't coming until end of 2020, wouldn't it make sense to reveal the Y in early 2020?

And it explains why they are so secretive.

Because no cells for Y, please re-listen the podcast Hot: Elon Musk Interview On "Ride The Lightning" Podcast — A Tesla Geek's Dream | CleanTechnica
and stop speculating about Y coming out this year.

There was also a statement that reveal was not made super-exciting and the Y was downplayed on purpose.