This is different from tulips as a FSD car is revenue generating. The "value" of the car depends on the expected revenue, maintenance costs, car life span and interest rate. On top of that supply of the car. If the demand for robot taxi exceeds the number of Tesla cars there is, the price would rise significantly, until Tesla ramps up production to balance it out.
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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
- Start date
This is different from tulips as a FSD car is revenue generating. The "value" of the car depends on the expected revenue, maintenance costs, car life span and interest rate. On top of that supply of the car. If the demand for robot taxi exceeds the number of Tesla cars there is, the price would rise significantly, until Tesla ramps up production to balance it out.
Fact Checking
Well-Known Member
I don't think that will be the case, because in that strictly hypothetical scenario which might never become reality Tesla's FSD robotaxis won't be in a free market subject to supply and demand forces, but will be in an artificial market where:
- Tesla controls the physical supply of FSD capable taxis: only they can license any revenue generation on the Tesla Network,
- Tesla controls Tesla Network geographical distribution: there's nothing forbidding them from setting per city quotas for example,
- Tesla controls the pricing on the Tesla Network: for example they could, like Uber or Lyft, set uniform pricing, which together with licensing and revenue sharing terms determines how much income owners will keep.
- FSD robotaxi licenses probably won't even be transferable - i.e. there won't be a market for them beyond what Tesla allows.
If Tesla is a good, benevolent "monopolist" they'll keep a big chunk of the income, but will also leave a healthy margin for the millions of people actually purchasing and operating the robotaxis.
Note that another scenario suggested by some here is also an entirely valid outcome: for Tesla to stop selling taxi capable cars and licenses to the general public and become a robotaxi company that makes and operates robotaxis. That allows them to keep all the profits.
In any case I'd expect current FSD licenses to be grandfathered into whatever future robotaxi scheme, so should Tesla robotaxis become reality the people who bought the original $5k FSD option have likely made a really good deal.
⚡️ELECTROMAN⚡️
Village Idiot
Maybe his doors are still frozen shut?
Same for me:
- 94% TSLA Stock @ Avg of 215$
- 5% Jun2020 280$ TSLA Calls
- 1% Aug16'19 300$ TSLA Calls
Rest is cash.
StealthP3D
Well-Known Member
Fossil cars will not be banned in cities until there are enough zero-emission cars available to handle transportation needs. You appear to put a lot more faith in government to solve emissions problems than I do. Need I remind you that a private company is leading that charge (Tesla) and their sales are driven primarily by private demand, not a government mandate.
Meanwhile, the fossil fuel industry is the most highly subsidized industry on the face of the earth. EV's are growing exponentially, fossil cars are in decline. It's because EV's are better and more desirable, not because of anything the government has done! Even in "liberal" California, we have a situation where a three-year-old, zero-emission EV cannot use the HOV lanes while a fossil fuel powered hybrid can. Trust me, for all the noise made about "market-distorting" subsidies of renewable energies/zero emission, these subsidies are a drop in the bucket compared to the "market-distorting" subsidies enjoyed by fossil fuels.
Also, your "fear" that the sales volumes in Europe are temporary is the same mistake that the bears made when Q1 sales declined over Q3 and Q4. This was due to production/delivery constraints, not anything to do with demand as Q2 has made abundantly clear. It is extremely short-sighted to fear that demand is a problem when Tesla's sales network (new owners) is growing at an exponential rate and the launch of the Model 3 has gone off without a single recall, let alone a serious one. Yeah, but panel gaps, low demand and fire danger. And the wheels just fall off. Nobody wants them
I'll be old and fat by the time there are enough robotaxis to drive prices that low. Medium term is enough to retire on.
My MIL has the sport version of the mini and it seems like a nice enough car, probably fun to drive. It's so small, that range is confusing.
It will go in baby steps. There are areas in the UK that are pedestrian only except for EVs right? Probably will start with city cores, with exemptions for delivery vehicles etc. Fossil cars will not be banned in cities until there are enough zero-emission cars available to handle transportation needs. You appear to put a lot more faith in government to solve emissions problems than I do. Need I remind you that a private company is leading that charge (Tesla) and their sales are driven primarily by private demand, not a government mandate.
EVNow
Well-Known Member
Tesla sets the price on TN - not you or me. Just like with Uber.
BTW, do you guys remember Uber telling Tesla, they will buy all the FSD cars Tesla can produce. May be Tesla should just sell FSD cars at $200k to Uber
Isn't it easy to assume that this is the production increase at Fremont? I believe Tesla has said they wouldn't put anymore into production until Panasonic catches up on batteries. Sounds like Panasonic is finally starting to catch up.
5-fold in 5 years = less than 40% growth per year (depends on when you start and stop the timeperiods, of course). Not particularly impressive given how fast Tesla has been ramping. But at least it's not at a level one would consider disappointing
Off Shore
Off Topic Member
NB You haven't lost anything, unless you sold.
dc_h
Active Member
Model Y is the only logical option. Model 3 production already on track to increase by >50% by end of 2019 or Q1 2029(Shanghai & Fremont progress). Semi is not as high a priority per Elon and neither is Roadster.
How are you going to undercut anyone if Tesla sets the prices? Remember: they can’t be used in this way outside the Tesla Network.
SW2Fiddler
We Are Cognitive Dissidents
Better minibar in the back seat.
For the Tesla network though, why wouldn't Tesla set their share of revenue to the point where taxis are basically operating at the marginal cost for the owners? It's their network. That's really the only way I could see them still selling cars.
Option 1. Keep selling FSD cars to people, collection high percentage of robotaxi revenue and charge a lot for FSD = profits are comparable to keeping cars to run on the network themselves.
Option 2. Stop selling cars altogether until the taxi network is saturated. Collect crazy high profits on taxis.
Option 3. Keep selling cars to consumers and make 10% margins. Collect 30% of revenue from taxi network while average people collect the rest.
Why would Tesla go with option 3?
Have you used Uber?
There will be TN phone app to summon robotaxis and which will set the prices for the rides. Nobody will be undercutting anybody. Tesla wants its 30% cut of the ride not undercut.
I see that FSD can be sold in 2 options - $5k for personal use that does not allow your car to be hailed from the TN app and whatever, say $50k, for TN use. Or as Elon suggested, they may take a larger cut from the rides if you haven't purchased $50k FSD option- like 50% and deposit some of the money into your $50k acct to be used for FSD payment.
You can possibly still use your personal FSD to join Uber and drive people with it, the difference is that you'll be spending your time in the car to manually activate it and won't be covered by Tesla insurance for ride sharing. This will not make much sense economically.
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News of Tesla Raising Production?
3 Key Thoughts by Adam Jonas:
1. We do not expect Tesla production to surpass an anal run-rate of 500k until late 2020. The Bloomberg article, citing the leaked email to Tesla employees from its Automotive President Jerome Guillen, suggested "several" parts of the China assembly line are in already in place. TSLA said in their 1Q19 shareholder letter "Vehicle production will be significantly higher than deliveries" and "If our Gigafactory Shanghai is able to reach volume production early in Q4 this year, we may be able to produce as many as 500,000 vehicles globally in 2019."
2. We expect China to account for less than 200k units of delivery toTesla through 2022. While we anticipate significant pent-up demand for Tesla ́s locally produced vehicles in the PRC, longer-term we expect the Chinese EV market to remain highly competitive and see Tesla ́s China volume peaking at 254k units in 2024, before falling to the 160k to 170k range by 2030.
3. We suspect both bulls and bears to use the near term boost in newsflow/sentiment to sell the stock. Clearly the debate around demand for Tesla ́s products has become less one-sided in recent weeks and appears to be in a fluid situation. That said, we believe the conviction, passion and time horizon of the prevailing bear case in the market may take several more months or quarters to break.
I am long on ARKK. I am in and out on a weekly basis or so of ENPH, SPWR, CSIQ SOLO, and FSLR. These solar stocks can have huge swings. I buy them when the macro is low. They always come back, often with a vengeance.
shrspeedblade
Rideshare Monkey
Some THING is looking good right now! Boosting production news can't hurt!
Edit: macros on the upswing right now, too.
Edit: macros on the upswing right now, too.
Driver Dave
Member
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