Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[SZNJ]

$36,000 for 260 miles range? That’s nothing to laugh about. Especially since it gets the full $7,500 tax credit in the USA (so an actual $28.5k price)

edit: as Karenrai mentioned below, that 260 miles might not actually be 260 miles.

Perhaps I missed something but to my knowledge this car is not coming to the US.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

I still have concerns that Bjørn's Mercedes EQC issue isn't just "a defect", but deliberate cheat software to make the car look like it has longer range and greater efficiency than it does.

Could just be a bug. But I wouldn't at all put it past Mercedes.

Considering the fact that the German auto groups just got caught cheating again on what was supposed to be the fix for the original cheating......I'd easily give it 50/50 odds that this is intentional. We'll probably get confirmation if this "bug" starts showing up in other future German EV cars......ahem ID3......cough..

 

[abasile]

So, last night, I put in a limit order at $219 to re-buy three fourths of what I had previously sold at $219.9. It executed early this morning. I then put in another limit order for the rest. We'll see what happens.

The limit order to re-buy the rest of the shares just executed at $219.7. So I'm now back up to my previous share count, plus some pocket change. That didn't take long! Meanwhile, the negative articles continue in the media.

 

[Artful Dodger]

I can see Musk trying to take this puppy private with help of VW, Saudi’s, Ellison and SpaceX buying up all the shares. Tesla being public is just becoming a headache for him. Nonstop FUD. Yeah in 10 years we would all be rich af but media and manipulation probably upsets Elon and he doesn’t need all this stress

Yeah, I think you're projecting. Elon has already said "that ship has sailed". He doesn't spend his day obsessing over the SP; he spends it engineering world-changing products.

Cheers!

 

[larmor]

People put too much emphasis on what the share price is at any given point in time. That's just what someone is willing to pay you for it at that point in time. You list FSD hardware V3.0 as a positive but that was only necessary because FSD was a more difficult problem than any of the major players predicted. 5 years ago people thought Tesla had a way to use robots to stamp out cars like pennies coming out of a minting machine. The reality is not so easy. I agree with you that buying TSLA shares at current prices will likely turn out to be a very good thing. But nothing is guaranteed in this world.



The current "true" valuation is that at which it's trading at currently. I'm betting the future "true" valuation (meaning future trading price) will be much higher.

I would add to your list that alot of major auto manufacturers have invested heavily in the FSD project and alot of VCs are funding FSD type AI driving prjects and algos. So the market places a high value on AI/FSD, including chip makers, and vaporware, vs. tesla which has real miles for FSD modeling, makes their own chip(s)/chipset.

Why has there never been any scrutiny from investors on the chipset making process that tesla is doing--this could be a standalone business.

 

[SpaceCash]

Well the gap has filled. Some people believe that's imperative. Hopefully we can bullish AF now

 

[Tslynk67]

I still have concerns that Bjørn's Mercedes EQC issue isn't just "a defect", but deliberate cheat software to make the car look like it has longer range and greater efficiency than it does.

Could just be a bug. But I wouldn't at all put it past Mercedes.

Yikes, that's very stressful!

I've never driven my XP100DL at 93kmph for an extended period, but I reckon if I did then I'd get more than 500km out of it.

And there you see also the mess that is public charging stations...

 

[GOVA]

If VW is prepared to offer my price of $4000 I will go along too. Well okay, a discount to $3000 is acceptable because it saves me 10 years of FUD headaches.

Reporter: "Mr. Burns. We've heard a German consortium offered to purchase the plant. Any comments?"
Burns: "You'll see the Statue of Liberty wearing lederhosen before you'll see Germans running my plant!"
Reporter: "Then why are you meeting with them?"
Burns: "So I can look Uncle Fritz square in the monocle and say, 'Nein!'"

 

[elasalle]

MM know what to do, invert the yield curve just as Fed meets - kinda forces their hand

 

[MarcusMaximus]

Its something like a year ago i wrote about the differencies of AP and Volvos Pilot Assist 2
Volvo is quite good, on Freeways and country roads
Disclaimer: I own M 3, Model S 85D(2016)
and a 2018 XC90
so i know the systems
Maybe Tesla FSD will be stellar, maybe not.

Sure, where by “quite good”, you mean “can mostly follow lane lines”. AP actually handles the entire dynamic driving task. 99.9% of the time on my way to work and back I just leave my hand resting on the wheel and it handles everything.

 

[sixela]

Considering the fact that the German auto groups just got caught cheating again on what was supposed to be the fix for the original cheating......I'd easily give it 50/50 odds that this is intentional. We'll probably get confirmation if this "bug" starts showing up in other future German EV cars......ahem ID3......cough..

Would have showed up on the e-tron, no? But it didn't. Apart from the obvious trick of only giving the customers only access to a fairly reduced part of the advertised battery (without even a faint whim of a class action suit on the horizon ;-) ) the BMS works sanely on that car.

 

[Nocturnal]

Perhaps a tad short-sighted, Sir Fred?

Tesla is moving into a $15T/yr market, and demand for VW's core competency, ICE technology, is a shrinking legacy market. VW is years (perhaps 7 yrs) behind in EV competency, and their future cost curves are inferior to Tesla.

VW has to convince their ownership (the Porsche/Pièche family) that their 90 year ICE legacy is in vain. Meanwhile, Tesla LEADS the future on battery storage, the critical technology for the next decade. VW has no stomach for disrupting the Utility industry, though that's half of Tesla's upside during the 2020s. VW would miss ALL of that upside.

TL;dr VW is losing time, and falling further behind.

They took their big shot with the Etron and Taycan, and although not a "failure" they surely are not really competitive. Not everyone will be blind to the writing on the wall.

 

[abasile]

"Never attribute to malice that which is adequately explained by stupidity."

Cheat software is supposed to go undetected, not scare the driver! My guess is that the drivetrain is using more energy than reported, causing things to get out of sync with the BMS. Or perhaps there's a battery defect. What happened to Mercedes' quality control?

I still have concerns that Bjørn's Mercedes EQC issue isn't just "a defect", but deliberate cheat software to make the car look like it has longer range and greater efficiency than it does.

Could just be a bug. But I wouldn't at all put it past Mercedes.

 

[KarenRei]

"Never attribute to malice that which is adequately explained by stupidity."

Cheat software is supposed to go undetected, not scare the driver! My guess is that the drivetrain is using more energy than reported, causing things to get out of sync with the BMS. Or perhaps there's a battery defect. What happened to Mercedes' quality control?

The whole concept behind such a cheat is that very few people testing the vehicle will ever come anywhere near the bottom of the pack (particularly journalists). All they ever see is low energy consumption and high SoCs. They never get to the point where it starts dropping fast.

It's the easy way to make an inefficient, shorter range vehicle look like an efficient, longer-range vehicle. Very few people do exhaustive tests like Bjørn does. And for those they do, you can always just blame it on a "bug" and try to sweep it under the rug.

 

[Singuy]

Yikes, that's very stressful!

I've never driven my XP100DL at 93kmph for an extended period, but I reckon if I did then I'd get more than 500km out of it.

And there you see also the mess that is public charging stations...

Looking at the dc fast charging queue convinced me Tesla or bust in Norway. Way too many electrics and no one has the time to wait a hour just so you can wait another 30mins. Man Tesla's are no brainers..no wonder people are willing to spend the extra money for a model S there. The model 3 just made all the electric cars obsolete.

 

[Singuy]

The whole concept behind such a cheat is that very few people testing the vehicle will ever come anywhere near the bottom of the pack (particularly journalists). All they ever see is low energy consumption and high SoCs. They never get to the point where it starts dropping fast.

It's the easy way to make an inefficient, shorter range vehicle look like an efficient, longer-range vehicle. Very few people do exhaustive tests like Bjørn does. And for those they do, you can always just blame it on a "bug" and try to sweep it under the rug.

This is what happens when companies focus too much on trying to kill Tesla vs trying actually take electric seriously. None of these companies are. They are just releasing some half ass products hopefully to take enough shares from Tesla so they go bankrupt...then they will claim something like " no one wants electric cars" and go on their marry way. BMW ex CEO however made the n"one wants electric cars" a little too early. Guess he missed the memo on timing.

 

[Tslynk67]

Looking at the dc fast charging queue convinced me Tesla or bust in Norway. Way too many electrics and no one has the time to wait a hour just so you can wait another 30mins. Man Tesla's are no brainers..no wonder people are willing to spend the extra money for a model S there. The model 3 just made all the electric cars obsolete.

There are multiple problems with non-Tesla facilities as a primary charging solution:
- not many stalls at each location - tends to be 2 in most places
- not working
- technical issue with the RFID/starting the session
- cars with slower charing using them for hours
- ICE'd - as they're not always as obvious as Supercharging stalls

I wouldn't say the M3 has obsoleted all other EV (well all other cars really) because it's not a hatch-back. Most people want a hatch-back here in Europe for the practicality. Big mistake from Tesla making it a sedan.

 

[kengchang]

I would add to your list that alot of major auto manufacturers have invested heavily in the FSD project and alot of VCs are funding FSD type AI driving prjects and algos. So the market places a high value on AI/FSD, including chip makers, and vaporware, vs. tesla which has real miles for FSD modeling, makes their own chip(s)/chipset.

Why has there never been any scrutiny from investors on the chipset making process that tesla is doing--this could be a standalone business.

So what would happen to TSLA if Elon announce LIDAR will be installed starting today? What will be the new goalpost?

 

[Antares Nebula]

Note that that's not exactly a denial either. It might be pure speculation and still be true.

Manager Magazin had high level VW leaks in the past too, such as these details about VW's internal targets and costs:

Tesla Model 3 cost surprised Porsche and Audi after reverse-engineering - Electrek​

I have the impression that this leak was a trial balloon by VW top management - in part to pressure Elon, in part to sound out the opinion of the big Volkswagen shareholders.

You're reaching here. This is a pretty clear denial. No way Elon and shareholders sell less than minimum 300 (or much higher). And no way VW pay more than that. This deal is virtually impossible. At most you can expect is some kind of partnership. And they already said that to partner with Waymo is too expensive (and so they went with Ford). Tesla will be cheaper? I doubt it.

(And my note on share price: it is down from 228 in premarket. That is what I was referring to in case you were less than clear. And it's about flat now from yesterday's close.)

Let's keep it real!

 

[kengchang]

Just got notice from IB, is this Goldman stopped following?