Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[StealthP3D]

The more important question to me is if they have managed to boost production or we are just slicing the same size of cake into different slices - diverting shipments to the Dutch vs the Norwegians. As they have just started deliveries to the rest of the RHD countries as well, this question is especially interesting.

Wouldn't it be easier to simply hire three-shift workers to count every car leaving the Freemont factory 24/7?

Their salaries could be covered with a few trades right before quarterly delivery numbers were announced.

 

[Antares Nebula]

I had more the impression that @anthonyj was saying the gap will predictably be filled within the same day which seemed extremely unlikely to me. Also not sure why 223 should be an important buy point, but that's probably too much of thought thrown in this message.

Of course it can't be ruled out that the gap will be filled, in the opposite, it's somewhat likely that it will be filled at some point in the future. On the other side, the multiple 2013 gaps when the SP went over 30 to about 100 were never filled.

So, there are gaps which are filled and there occur gaps which never will be filled. The second case happens when a stock is fundamentally new valued by the market in a disruptive way. The longer Tesla SP stays deeply depressed, the more likely this happens. Forced short covering is likely a big factor in this scenario.

Gaps rarely fill in the same day. Partial fill, yes. But not a full fill.

Yes, there is no rule that says gaps have to be filled either. the 2013 case is interesting. You had a parabolic rise that lead to about a 10x increase. In those situations, gaps are unlikely to be filled. If Tesla somehow goes up to 300 in the next few weeks, yeah then in that case too, these gaps are unlikely to be filled.

Interestingly, there are also a few gaps between 180 and 140. But I will not worry about those unless TSLA breaks 180 support.

 

[SpaceCash]

Which still leaves us with the question how many Roadsters actually will be sold.
I.e. not given away as freebee to referral code peddlers.

So, so, so so so many

 

[ReflexFunds]

This is actually a very big deal. Can you add other cars to your Tesla policy? If not, Tesla will have a hard time competing for households that insure multiple cars under the same policy, unless Tesla is also willing to insure those other non-Tesla cars. The reason is that your rate per car drops the more cars you add to the policy.

I don't think it should be hard for Tesla to partner with other insurance programs to offer non Tesla car multi car deals, plus also eventually home & other insurance discounts.

However another solution to this problem is Model Y and Pickup. Soon there will be very little reason for Tesla owners to own any non Tesla cars. (I'm only half joking)

 

[Tim S]

I know I'm going to get downvoted for this, but @anthonyj is right. Both these large gaps will (fortunately or unfortunately) be filled. It's just a rule with TSLA stock that I have observed over the last several years. It may go up to 260 first, but you can count on the gap at 215 being eventually filled. There are also gaps at 204 and 196, for what it's worth. I think there is a decent chance of these gaps being filled too. Just saying... don't hate the messenger.

The large gaps will be filled... until suddenly they aren't anymore. You don't want to be sitting on a pile of cash as TSLA hits 400.

 

[EVNow]

I know I'm going to get downvoted for this, but @anthonyj is right. Both these large gaps will (fortunately or unfortunately) be filled. It's just a rule with TSLA stock that I have observed over the last several years. It may go up to 260 first, but you can count on the gap at 215 being eventually filled. There are also gaps at 204 and 196, for what it's worth. I think there is a decent chance of these gaps being filled too. Just saying... don't hate the messenger.

If enough people believe in this - it becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy.

 

[EVNow]

Ameriprise via CostCo by my research has a good rate on Teslas. My multi-vehicle rate quoted by my present insurer which includes home and auto and umbrella on top of that was easily bested (hundreds cheaper) by Ameriprise as a single vehicle policy. My existing insurer was uncertain about Tesla's new Model 3 so quoted it conservatively easily 30%+ higher than Ameriprise. Might be different today.

I've had Ameriprise for a long time. They have always given good price on EVs - starting from 2011.

With Model 3, they were even more generous. My premium on $50k Model 3 is less than what I paid for $35k Volt.

 

[Antares Nebula]

If enough people believe in this - it becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy.

Maybe, but that could be said of TA in general.

 

[EVNow]

Maybe, but that could be said of TA in general.

Yes.

 

[Reinhard]

Fraudamental on Twitter

July Model 3 registrations in Canada up 11% quarter over quarter (992 vs 1108)

This is in the context of total registrations in NNS (netherlands, norway, spain) being up 15% QoQ (2836 vs 3275).

If Tesla can keep up a 10-15% increase over Q2, deliveries in Q3 will be around 105,000.

 

[Navin]

This Twitter Exhange is awesome. The art is disputing someone in media who is constantly flinging nonsense towards Tesla.

Lora Kolodny on Twitter

 

[Unpilot]

This Twitter Exhange is awesome. The art is disputing someone in media who is constantly flinging nonsense towards Tesla.

Lora Kolodny on Twitter

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[EVNow]

If Tesla can keep up a 10-15% increase over Q2, deliveries in Q3 will be around 105,000.

The most interesting thing about Q2 deliveries was that - in EU (and China?) there was not much of a difference between Q1 and Q2 (~20k), even though total Q2 was 51% more than Q1.

It was US that made the big difference(~60k vs ~30k). Tax credit related pull forward and seasonality crushed US sales in Q1. It recovered in Q2 and seems to be doing ok in Q3.

In other words, what will determine Q3 sales is the US sales - esp. September ones. That is what makes overall delivery numbers for Tesla difficult to estimate. In Q2, but for various leaks from within Tesla, almost no one would have estimated >90k.

 

[JRP3]

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Twitter seems to be having general issues.

 

[Antares Nebula]

I've had Ameriprise for a long time. They have always given good price on EVs - starting from 2011.

With Model 3, they were even more generous. My premium on $50k Model 3 is less than what I paid for $35k Volt.

How is the service with Ameriprise? They are cheap compared to others. Wondering if there is a trade-off in service quality?

 

[elasalle]

https://twitter.com/TeslaNY/status/1167359194430943232

 

[Antares Nebula]

North Carolina Bought Up More Tesla, GE, and Disney Stock

"North Carolina limits the number of dealerships Tesla is allowed to have within its boundaries, but the Tar Heel State recently increased its investment in the electric-vehicle maker."

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

The most interesting thing about Q2 deliveries was that - in EU (and China?) there was not much of a difference between Q1 and Q2 (~20k), even though total Q2 was 51% more than Q1.

It was US that made the big difference(~60k vs ~30k). Tax credit related pull forward and seasonality crushed US sales in Q1. It recovered in Q2 and seems to be doing ok in Q3.

In other words, what will determine Q3 sales is the US sales - esp. September ones. That is what makes overall delivery numbers for Tesla difficult to estimate. In Q2, but for various leaks from within Tesla, almost no one would have estimated >90k.

I honestly think Q2 US numbers increased over Q1 much more because of production increases(especially battery production increases) rather than the tax cut and seasonality. Seasonality will also lead to US Q3 sales either increasing or at least holding steady. For the EU, don't forget Britian is getting M3 this quarter so now EU is sharing exports with Britain. It makes the fact that Europe is ahead of Q2 even more impressive

 

[defc0n]

Tesla New York on Twitter
View attachment 448751

Something to be proud about my home state for once.

 

[goinfraftw]

So, let me know if I got this right...

1. Tesla keeps reducing COGS every quarter during a greater-than-linear scale up of production.
2. ~$1.5B in deferred revenue (e.g. Autopilot). If a product isn't delivered, it can't be noted as revenue under GAAP principles by the SEC.
3. Tesla generates, now, >$6B per Q and just posted a $400M loss.

What happens when they realize Autopilot deferred revenue? When they open up broad access? What happens when China sales from GF3 come in (w/ reduced sales tax)? What happens to margins?