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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

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2021.

Even with the current margins, higher volumes will be enough to get to gaap profits. Infact with ~20% margin and 110k cars per quarter, Tesla has gaap break-even. In 2021 with GF3 and Y, we are probably talking about ~175k per quarter.

Full AutoPilot and FSD revenue recognition is another key factor that is going to increase margins. To do this Tesla only needs to reach the "feature complete" milestones for FSD, which should be possible within 2-3 quarters.
 
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2021.

Even with the current margins, higher volumes will be enough to get to gaap profits. Infact with ~20% margin and 110k cars per quarter, Tesla has gaap break-even. In 2021 with GF3 and Y, we are probably talking about ~175k per quarter.

Worth mentioning the Roadster, when it finally starts shipping, every 1000 roadsters sold will boost the ASP by $1000 on 200,000 cars
 
They've got their own sheep in this field. ;)

Re, FSD: The Ring Road and other paved roads are quite good - although the driver will have to be watching for sheep until the software learns to recognize them as a threat and read their intent in the way a human would. The non-paved roads, however, could be... problematic. And there's a lot of them.

We also have some pretty fearsome winter driving conditions. Not abnormally cold, but dark, wet, and extremely windy (long, too).
Unable to embed the video, and not specifically a sheep... but close enough :)
Dear Tesla AI - this is not what people look like in Austria! : teslamotors
 
Here's the most important chart to understand today's TSLA trading:
aug30compare.jpg

As you can see, the NASDAQ's dip this morning was pretty benign. There's no way that dip justified the morning dip that TSLA saw. We saw LOTS of volume this morning as longs and shorts fought to determine the price's trajectory. I wouldn't be surprised if shorts had a bear raid planned for today and the China news rained on their parade. In any event, shorts had to be selling this morning to engineer the dip through 11:25am, and we saw capping near 225 for the remainder of the day. Today was the all time classic example of a sticky dip on steroids. The good news is that the China tax break for Teslas is very real and will have positive consequences going forward, and those consequences will positively affect the stock price in good time.
 
I'
So, Tesla Iceland opens on 9/9. Am I actually going to be able to at long last convert my reservation into an order then? Somebody pinch me... :)
I'm traveling and will actually be in Iceland on the 9th or 10th. In any case, I'll be stopping by the store to say hey and scope out the interest. I know it'll take time to turn your order into an actual car but, best of good fortune with your new car.
 
I was worried that low volume this week would give the SP manipulators opportunity to punish TSLA. Instead, thanks to China, the manipulators probably took a hit overall, particularly with their 220 calls. They also had to do a lot of selling in the morning to avoid punishing losses on their 225 and 230 calls. If the SP goes up from here, this short selling get expensive for them.

Anything can happen next, particularly with macros, but I’m feeling bullish that with investors coming back after the holidays and one month to go before potentially good delivery numbers, that the game gets much tougher for the manipulators.

And China is starting to get very real. The boost we got today is a harbinger of very good things to come from the GF3 launch.
 
Are you referring to visibility or the fact that black cars radiate more cabin heat to the outside environment?
Visibility. Trust me, you don't want black at night, especially in rural areas w/o street lights. Yellow or white are the safest colors. Some smart folks apply that 3M reflective tape to the sides of their cars, too. ;)




Cheers!

P.S. Click the image for the B.I. story on the "Tron Model S". :cool:
 
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OT

OT
what about AC? is that single loop or does cabin have its own?

One compressor and condenser. Two valves controlling the cabin evaporator and glycol chiller. Totally parallel, no heat pump type action.
there is a thread(s) for this. Tag me in any of them if you have more questions.

S/X, 3 similar:
Tesla Thermal Management System - explanation
 
Leading in the sense that its 382 cars more than after the first two months of Q2 or already more than the whole of Q2? Can you link the source?
I think they are talking about the quarter-to-date number compared to Q2. His source is EU-EVs.com a site which utilizes the real time government registration data available in these 3 countries.

I would caution against drawing to many conclusions at this point: the Netherlands is way up, but NO is down and Spain is sort of like last Q. But given that you are one of the godfathers of our EU data project, I'll stop preaching to the choir.

The more important question to me is if they have managed to boost production or we are just slicing the same size of cake into different slices - diverting shipments to the Dutch vs the Norwegians. As they have just started deliveries to the rest of the RHD countries as well, this question is especially interesting.

I am really looking forward to the first official UK data in a few months... Pre-Model 3 they have become one of the top 3 markets in Europe so I am curious to see how that car does. At the same time looming no-deal Brexit may put the breaks on car sales in fear of an economic downturn.
 
For me, it's easily 20-30% lower than any other price I've been quoted by anyone other than Progressive(they're my current insurer for this reason). They're still cheaper than progressive for me, but it would remove my ability to bundle with my LEAF for a multi-car discount, making it ultimately slightly more expensive. When I get the Y, this may prove to be the cheaper option overall.

EDIT: And, looking around reddit: Tesla Insurance is Back Up : teslamotors

Looks like it's cheaper for most other people too.

This is actually a very big deal. Can you add other cars to your Tesla policy? If not, Tesla will have a hard time competing for households that insure multiple cars under the same policy, unless Tesla is also willing to insure those other non-Tesla cars. The reason is that your rate per car drops the more cars you add to the policy. The logic is that a person or household can only drive so many hours a day, and so the rate does not go up linearly with each added car. (Think hypothetically if you owned a 1000 cars vs 1 car; the per car rate will be significantly different.)

The only other way around this is if Tesla can verify your ownership and coverage of other vehicles. But it seems that this could be tough to maintain and update. For this reason, the multi-car discount is usually under a single, combined policy.

I personally know someone that, already owns two other cars, and added a Model 3 AWD to their Ameriprise policy and only paid an additional $400/6 month. No way to get that rate if you owned only a Model 3 on a single car policy. Would be curious to hear from Tesla (or customers) on this.