Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[RobStark]

I think Tesla insurance is aimed at singe renters. Less so two tesla household renters.

For this demographic a thousand bucks a year might make the difference between buying a sub $40k Model 3 or buying a Toyota/Honda.

For people that own 3 plus cars including non Teslas, own a home,have an umbrella insurance policy in the $1M plus range and maybe life insurance in the $1M plus range Tesla Insurance is probably not for you.

 

[Antares Nebula]

As you're such an excellent contraindicator, I bet the SP won't reach 223 today.

God chances, doesn't stonk at all!

P.S. gapped up 2nd day in a row, up to now at least.

I know I'm going to get downvoted for this, but @anthonyj is right. Both these large gaps will (fortunately or unfortunately) be filled. It's just a rule with TSLA stock that I have observed over the last several years. It may go up to 260 first, but you can count on the gap at 215 being eventually filled. There are also gaps at 204 and 196, for what it's worth. I think there is a decent chance of these gaps being filled too. Just saying... don't hate the messenger.

 

[Antares Nebula]

Greg Kable on Twitter
"Don't read too much into @tesla's tax exemption in China. It applies to a wide range of electric vehicles, including models from @Audi, @Volkswagen, @MercedesBenz, @Nio, @Changan, @Weltmeister and more."

Eunice Yoon on Twitter
"#China to exempt 16 @tesla electric vehicle (EV) models from purchase tax, Ministry of Industry and Information Technology said on website. Policy not only for Tesla but all EV manufacturers. Pure EV, plug-in hybrid EVs, fuel cell vehicles."

So it seems to be for all EVs, whether imported or not — today's extension being for imported vehicles, including Teslas. So not special treatment for Tesla, but could have been prompted by Elon's visit. Still, Tesla is the most desirable EV, so will definitely boost demand. Just like in USA, people still buying Teslas though it has less incentives than a Bolt or other EVs.

 

[Fact Checking]

Greg Kable on Twitter
"Don't read too much into @tesla's tax exemption in China. It applies to a wide range of electric vehicles, including models from @Audi, @Volkswagen, @MercedesBenz, @Nio, @Changan, @Weltmeister and more."

So we shouldn't be reading too much into this, because of the dozens of Étrons VW must be selling in China, and the imaginary EVs from Mercedes Benz and BMW?

You also forgot to quote this self-identifying part of "Greg Kable"'s Tweet:

$TSLAQ

 

[The Accountant]

but I’m feeling bullish that with investors coming back after the holidays and one month to go before potentially good delivery numbers, that the game gets much tougher for the manipulators.

I'm with you but I truly believe the end game for manipulators and the shorts arrives when it becomes indisputably obvious that TSLA has no need to tap the capital markets again for a cash raise (and no bankwupty ). Q1 was an anomaly; from this point forward TSLA will be Free Cash Flow positive (with possibly some near quarters registering negligible FCF in the red). Over the next 3 years as their balance sheet strengthens and their cash position continues to climb and climb; TSLA will easily have no problem refinancing their debt (or paying it down). With a boat load of cash, we'll start to see increased investment in new models, more efficient batteries, GF4,GF5, GF6, improved auto pilot, etc. The business will be self-sustaining.

This stock is getting to $1,000 within the next 3 years...but it doesn't matter to me....my holding period is FOREVER (to quote Warren Buffet).

 

[Antares Nebula]

So we shouldn't be reading too much into this, because of the dozens of Étrons VW must be selling in China, and the imaginary EVs from Mercedes Benz and BMW?

You also forgot to quote this self-identifying part of "Greg Kable"'s Tweet:

oh no doubt, yeah you can ignore that part. I was just posting the fact that it's not just Tesla vehicles. TSLAQ will definitely be downplaying this.

 

[winfield100]

Aptera with original founders giving it another go.

40 kWh 60 kWh and 100 kWh packs. Best 0-60 would be 3 seconds.

Up to 1000 miles of range. $34k-$59k.

Aptera Reveals Ressurection Details, Tech Specs: No Plans To Die Again

@RobStark
Sylph, from before the Aptera, Northern California, small wing, sorta EV

Sylph Three Wheeler - Micro Hydro - Free Energy Planet

 

[Fact Checking]

The reason is that your rate per car drops the more cars you add to the policy. The logic is that a person or household can only drive so many hours a day, and so the rate does not go up linearly with each added car. (Think hypothetically if you owned a 1000 cars vs 1 car; the per car rate will be significantly different.)

Is this assumption actually true? It's a rather common pattern to have a family car for wife and the commuter car for husband, neither of which is really crowding out the other.

I'm wondering if this is the main reason behind multi-car discounts, which appear to be significant and go in addition to multi-policy discounts.

 

[Antares Nebula]

Is this assumption actually true? It's a rather common pattern to have a family car for wife and the commuter car for husband, neither of which is really crowding out the other.

I'm wondering if this is the main reason behind multi-car discounts, which appear to be significant and go in addition to multi-policy discounts.

Oh it is absolutely true. Two cars may not make much of a difference, especially if there are two or more people in the house. It depends on the number of people in the household and the number of cars. After that, it's just basic logic: a person can only drive so many hours a day, excluding major business use or other special situations.

 

[dgodfrey]

This is actually a very big deal. Can you add other cars to your Tesla policy? If not, Tesla will have a hard time competing for households that insure multiple cars under the same policy, unless Tesla is also willing to insure those other non-Tesla cars. The reason is that your rate per car drops the more cars you add to the policy. The logic is that a person or household can only drive so many hours a day, and so the rate does not go up linearly with each added car. (Think hypothetically if you owned a 1000 cars vs 1 car; the per car rate will be significantly different.)

The only other way around this is if Tesla can verify your ownership and coverage of other vehicles. But it seems that this could be tough to maintain and update. For this reason, the multi-car discount is usually under a single, combined policy.

I personally know someone that, already owns two other cars, and added a Model 3 AWD to their Ameriprise policy and only paid an additional $400/6 month. No way to get that rate if you owned only a Model 3 on a single car policy. Would be curious to hear from Tesla (or customers) on this.

There was an article I can't seem to find that addressed this issue. Something about insuring a Chevy Bolt via Tesla. From what I remembered, the California state law mandates that insurance can not be restricted to just one brand. There was a somewhat obscure link to insure non-Tesla's on their web page which would ultimately lead to Tesla providing a third party insurer that would ultimately be on the hook. Certainly would seem non competitive though so most would not follow through IMO.

 

[lascavarian]

I personally know someone that, already owns two other cars, and added a Model 3 AWD to their Ameriprise policy and only paid an additional $400/6 month. No way to get that rate if you owned only a Model 3 on a single car policy. Would be curious to hear from Tesla (or customers) on this.

Ameriprise via CostCo by my research has a good rate on Teslas. My multi-vehicle rate quoted by my present insurer which includes home and auto and umbrella on top of that was easily bested (hundreds cheaper) by Ameriprise as a single vehicle policy. My existing insurer was uncertain about Tesla's new Model 3 so quoted it conservatively easily 30%+ higher than Ameriprise. Might be different today.

My view is that an electric vehicle that does not contain highly flammable liquid fuels and does not emit poisonous gas (CO) when used as intended should be easily cheaper than an ICE vehicle with those inherent additional expensive risks particularly when there is homeowner coverage involved. We have family that had 2 bedroom deaths in their home related to CO from a vehicle accidentally left running in the garage. This is expensive casualty coverage in the case of CO that is completely mitigated by electric vehicles.

Just as an aside, many vehicles can control garage door openers via included circuitry in the vehicle. How easy it would be for garage door opener companies to automatically issue an RF signal to the car when the garage door has been close more than 30 seconds that the car could use to kill the vehicle ignition. This is trivial tech that does not happen and people die every year from ICE vehicle CO poisoning. In a closed garage it takes only minutes to reach a fatal level of Carbon Monoxide gas depending on the particular engine. Alternatively, make the garage door manufacturers liable for the consequences of their product closing the garage door. If the garage door is left open it is much harder to reach fatal levels. These CO related deaths are not difficult to prevent with existing tech IMO.

Carbon Monoxide Poisoning: Garages (AEN-207) • Department of Agricultural and Biosystems Engineering • Iowa State University

 

[Antares Nebula]

@Fact Checking what is your take on China's recent reconciliatory tone on the trade wars. Do you still believe that they are going to enact retaliatory tariffs in the next couple of weeks? It appears that they are looking to deescalate.

China says it's willing to resolve the trade war with a 'calm attitude,' hints it won't retaliate for now

 

[SO16]

@Fact Checking what is your take on China's recent reconciliatory tone on the trade wars. Do you still believe that they are going to enact retaliatory tariffs in the next couple of weeks? It appears that they are looking to deescalate.

China says it's willing to resolve the trade war with a 'calm attitude,' hints it won't retaliate for now

You mean like in April 2018?

“China elites seek to de-escalate trade tension before Xi speech”

And again in December 2018?

“Business groups applaud 'de-escalation' in US-China trade tensions”

 

[Fact Checking]

@Fact Checking what is your take on China's recent reconciliatory tone on the trade wars. Do you still believe that they are going to enact retaliatory tariffs in the next couple of weeks? It appears that they are looking to deescalate.

China says it's willing to resolve the trade war with a 'calm attitude,' hints it won't retaliate for now

I believe their wording still suggests that if they don't come to an agreement until October 1, China will match the Trump tariffs.

I could be wrong though.

 

[CorneliusXX]

This is actually a very big deal. Can you add other cars to your Tesla policy? If not, Tesla will have a hard time competing for households that insure multiple cars under the same policy, unless Tesla is also willing to insure those other non-Tesla cars. The reason is that your rate per car drops the more cars you add to the policy. The logic is that a person or household can only drive so many hours a day, and so the rate does not go up linearly with each added car. (Think hypothetically if you owned a 1000 cars vs 1 car; the per car rate will be significantly different.)

The only other way around this is if Tesla can verify your ownership and coverage of other vehicles. But it seems that this could be tough to maintain and update. For this reason, the multi-car discount is usually under a single, combined policy.

I personally know someone that, already owns two other cars, and added a Model 3 AWD to their Ameriprise policy and only paid an additional $400/6 month. No way to get that rate if you owned only a Model 3 on a single car policy. Would be curious to hear from Tesla (or customers) on this.

The initial goal of Tesla insurance is to provide a reasonable insurance cost to any potential purchaser - which removes a reason for them to say "no". This sales impediment removal is the first most important reason to launch insurance. It doesn't matter if Tesla can offer the best price, only that they offer a price low enough not to nix a sale.

Future expansion into group policies for other assets will be nice, if and only if it drives a profit.

 

[pnungesser]

Isn’t there a limit on liability coverage?

If you want additional liability insurance, particularly if you have a lot to lose, you can get an umbrella policy that provides additional liability coverage on top of your auto and home owner's policy. My $3M umbrella is very reasonable since the likelihood of needing it is small. Think of it as catostrophic liability coverage. Again, it may need to bundled under a single provider.

 

[Fact Checking]

Oh it is absolutely true. Two cars may not make much of a difference, especially if there are two or more people in the house. It depends on the number of people in the household and the number of cars. After that, it's just basic logic: a person can only drive so many hours a day, excluding major business use or other special situations.

Ok, if there are genuinely lower risks then it should be relatively straightforward for Tesla to offer multi-car insurance to.

Especially secondary non-Tesla ICE cars should be easy for Tesla to insure: they know that those cars won't see nearly as much use as before.

 

[Unpilot]

Ok, if there are genuinely lower risks then it should be relatively straightforward for Tesla to offer multi-car insurance to.

Especially secondary non-Tesla ICE cars should be easy for Tesla to insure: they know that those cars won't see nearly as much use as before.

Small data point....this is so true. I can't stand when I am forced to drive a ICE.

 

[Stars aligned]

I know I'm going to get downvoted for this, but @anthonyj is right. Both these large gaps will (fortunately or unfortunately) be filled. It's just a rule with TSLA stock that I have observed over the last several years. It may go up to 260 first, but you can count on the gap at 215 being eventually filled. There are also gaps at 204 and 196, for what it's worth. I think there is a decent chance of these gaps being filled too. Just saying... don't hate the messenger.

I had more the impression that @anthonyj was saying the gap will predictably be filled within the same day which seemed extremely unlikely to me. Also not sure why 223 should be an important buy point, but that's probably too much of thought thrown in this message.

Of course it can't be ruled out that the gap will be filled, in the opposite, it's somewhat likely that it will be filled at some point in the future. On the other side, the multiple 2013 gaps when the SP went over 30 to about 100 were never filled.

So, there are gaps which are filled and there occur gaps which never will be filled. The second case happens when a stock is fundamentally new valued by the market in a disruptive way. The longer Tesla SP stays deeply depressed, the more likely this happens. Forced short covering is likely a big factor in this scenario.

 

[PaulusdB]

Worth mentioning the Roadster, when it finally starts shipping, every 1000 roadsters sold will boost the ASP by $1000 on 200,000 cars

Which still leaves us with the question how many Roadsters actually will be sold.
I.e. not given away as freebee to referral code peddlers.