Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[KarenRei]

Opinion | Subsidize My Electric Car, Please

Anti ev subsidy article from wsj regarding bill to extend the subsidies by another 400,00 once the 200,000 limit is hit.

Comments allowed. Haven’t read them yet, but wsj loves to open up the comments section on an opinion piece such as this.

It's behind a paywall, so no comments from most people.

I also expect that most people here would be against the bill, as it continues the same "per-brand" structure that favours compliance cars over mass-produced EVs.

 

[Cyrusis]

New photos of Gigafactory Shanghai equipment.

 

[HG Wells]

OT Note:
Current hurricane forecast is to track further east of Florida.
Less chance of hurting SpaceX facilities in Florida.

 

[Right_Said_Fred]

It's behind a paywall, so no comments from most people.

I also expect that most people here would be against the bill, as it continues the same "per-brand" structure that favours compliance cars over mass-produced EVs.

A subsidy limited to the number of cars produced per brand doesn't make sense, as it is giving the laggards an advantage now (not to mention foreign companies, which is an abomination under a MAGA government). It would only make sense if the money goes directly to the producer, but it doesn't.

It would be much better to use a certain cut off date for all EVs, like 1 January 2023. Or even better: reduce the amount yoy: $7500 until 1 January 2021, $5500 until 1 January 2021, $3500 until 1 January 2022, $1500 until 1 January 2023, and then stop the program on 1 January 2024.

But sense and US politics, when was the last time those two words were used in the same sentence?

 

[Tslynk67]

GIGA3 update:

Twitter

Stamping press (Schuler?) and body assembly lines look pretty completed.
Unbelievable !

I find this progress even more astonishing than the rate the building went up.

Are we sure it won't already spit-out some M3's this year?

 

[KarenRei]

I find this progress even more astonishing than the rate the building went up.

Are we sure it won't already spit-out some M3's this year?

They already are making Model 3s.

But there's a difference between "making Model 3s" and making *good* Model 3s *consistently and quickly*

 

[ReflexFunds]

I find this progress even more astonishing than the rate the building went up.

Are we sure it won't already spit-out some M3's this year?

I think it looks like we are still on track for sample cars this month.

Last we heard in July production license and sales license qualification are due in November before mass production begins to ramp in December.
I would guess first customers receive cars in early December.

 

[Tslynk67]

A subsidy limited to the number of cars produced per brand doesn't make sense, as it is giving the laggards an advantage now (not to mention foreign companies, which is an abomination under a MAGA government). It would only make sense if the money goes directly to the producer, but it doesn't.

It would be much better to use a certain cut off date for all EVs, like 1 January 2023. Or even better: reduce the amount yoy: $7500 until 1 January 2021, $5500 until 1 January 2021, $3500 until 1 January 2022, $1500 until 1 January 2023, and then stop the program on 1 January 2024.

But sense and US politics, when was the last time those two words were used in the same sentence?

Or just stop with both subsidizing EV's and ICE and bring in a well-designed pollution tax that would make people pay the real cost of running a fossil fueled vehicle. EV's would also be somewhat liable for that as it's generally accepted that at the manufacturing stage they carry a 10% footprint overhead compared to and ICE, but this is quickly reclaims when the car is used.

I'd love to see a level playing field.

 

[Tslynk67]

They already are making Model 3s.

But there's a difference between "making Model 3s" and making *good* Model 3s *consistently and quickly*

What are you, some sort of wise guy?

OK, pre-market slowly swinging towards the positive - which is highly annoying as I want to buy today and can't make a pre-market order until 14:00 local, 08:00 NYC time (I don't know either), I'll try but my target is €220 and that's not looking likely.

If that fails (unexecuted orders are cancelled at open), then I'll try the same for the MMD.

I'm expecting decent InsideEV's estimates (ever the optimist), so want to buy before they come out.

However, worth noting that they won't be until tomorrow and may be even later, from InsideEV's site:

We will report August 2019 EV Sales beginning on Wednesday, September 4, 2019.


IMPORTANT EDITOR'S UPDATE: Note that we are in the of process switching to a new, more reliable data system. For the time being, you can expect some delivery numbers to publish later than expected or not be entered at all until the end of the quarter. With that being said, we will still provide Tesla delivery estimates each month, as well as sales numbers of some other models that are officially reported by automakers on a monthly basis.

 

[JRP3]

Or just stop with both subsidizing EV's and ICE and bring in a well-designed pollution tax that would make people pay the real cost of running a fossil fueled vehicle. EV's would also be somewhat liable for that as it's generally accepted that at the manufacturing stage they carry a 10% footprint overhead compared to and ICE, but this is quickly reclaims when the car is used.

I'd love to see a level playing field.

Unfortunately that hits the working poor and lower middle class who can't afford a new ev.

 

[dc_h]

Porsche says

“More than half of the people that are signing up for the Taycan have not owned or do not own a Porsche. Typically, if we look at our source of business, people coming from other brands, it’s Audi, BMW, or Mercedes. The no. 1 brand now is Tesla. That’s pretty interesting, to see that people that were curious about the Tesla for very good reasons obviously don’t stop being curious.”

Porsche says Tesla owners are the top Taycan reservation holders - Electrek

Every time I see a Model 3 owner looking over their reading glasses studying the display screen trying to figure things out I wince.

I think it is very naive to think Porsche will not take any sales from Tesla where it seems Gen II vehicles are demand constrained. Not everyone that pays $80k plus for a vehicle is willing to accept polyurethane seat covers and rubber steering wheels.

I don’t think it’s a zero sum game. I think for every sale Porsche takes, it will also drive two new sales for EV’s. Some will ops for the fancier/busier(more traditional) interior. Some will opt for Porsche cachet, but having Porsche validate the EV market will drive more overall EV sales. So if Porsche sells 20,000 Taycans, it could help drive many more Tesla and perhaps Audi and Mercedes sales as well.

 

[HG Wells]

Expect EXTRA FUD today.
Tesla App down for extended times.
People Locked out of their cars.

Tesla's App Goes Down for Hours, Leaving Some Stranded

 

[mrdoubleb]

I find this progress even more astonishing than the rate the building went up.

Are we sure it won't already spit-out some M3's this year?

Yes, this is great, but before we get too excited, I think shots of the exact same machines (even same angles) were already in the Q2 ER released over a month ago (07.24).

 

[heltok]

New photos of Gigafactory Shanghai equipment.

Fake news, Tesla would never allow yellow in their factory:
Report: The Tesla Factory Is Dangerous Because Elon Musk Hates Yellow

 

[traxila]

WSJ op ed hit piece on EV subsidies, including a note about how Tesla sales have declined since they lost their subsidy. Only the best in journalism. Don’t think anyone reads the op ed really....

 

[dc_h]

Here's the Taycan that "Car and Driver" tested on the track, which should be quite close to the final form:

View Photos of the 2020 Porsche Taycan

I'm a big fan of Porsche's design language, but if this is the final Taycan then they really screwed up this one:

• They tried to keep the iconic 911 headlights but less accented - which is a mistake because the proportions are wrong.
• They were probably constrained by high speed aerodynamics which is a big factor for EV range.
• The back looks good, but so does the Tesla Roadster 2020 which won't leave more than maybe 6 months of sales for the high end "Turbo" Taycan before it gets humiliated for about the same price.

Design of the Taycan front doesn't even come close to the Model S, which is still breathtakingly gorgeous even after 7 years ...

There are no perfect Pepsi’s. I think the Porsche look is pretty excellent. If you like Porsche this is probably your EV. I like it, but I can’t afford a sporty town car for my Hampton weekenders .
For people who can spend $130,000 on their around town and regional driver, it will sell. I know people who will love it. They may get a Tesla for distance, or have an Escalade or like for trips.
It’s all good, this is a milestone for the market. It’s also someone entering the right segment while they figure out the battery assembly and pack controls. VW will be able to apply and build better mass market cars with the Porsche development. When that happens it may mean Tesla slows down to 30-50% growth instead of 50-70%, which has to happen at some point. If they are first in FSD, that could be the new 100% growth market, but this is a sign that an EV market beyond one company is now beyond compliance cars. 2022 will likely be the first year VW comes in volume, but some IDs will be sooner and the EV market becomes the future consumers except for true trailing opinion followers (those who change when all their friends and family have migrated or the old options are gone). Don’t be threatened as a Tesla fan, feel affirmed that you were right about the future of the automobile.

Transcript of "Choice, happiness and spaghetti sauce"

 

[mrdoubleb]

A subsidy limited to the number of cars produced per brand doesn't make sense, as it is giving the laggards an advantage now (not to mention foreign companies, which is an abomination under a MAGA government). It would only make sense if the money goes directly to the producer, but it doesn't.

It would be much better to use a certain cut off date for all EVs, like 1 January 2023. Or even better: reduce the amount yoy: $7500 until 1 January 2021, $5500 until 1 January 2021, $3500 until 1 January 2022, $1500 until 1 January 2023, and then stop the program on 1 January 2024.

But sense and US politics, when was the last time those two words were used in the same sentence?

I`ve long said, that the best system would be to tie the cut-off either to the percentage of all EVs sold vs all new cars, or, the percentage of all EVs registered in a country vs total number of vehicles.

It could also be reviewed annually to check if the new technology is still more expensive than ICE. If it is already cheaper, one could argue the economics speaks for itself. (Well, I mean the up-front cost being a barrier, not the long-term... that one is already clear).

I also liked the old German system (not sure if it is still in place), where you got money for scrapping an old, super polluting dinosaur and replacing it with a zero emission vehicle.

Literally anything is better than an arbitrary number per manufacturer.

 

[willow_hiller]

Expect EXTRA FUD today.
Tesla App down for extended times.
People Locked out of their cars.

Tesla's App Goes Down for Hours, Leaving Some Stranded

How would that possibly strand anyone? The app works via Bluetooth even without an internet connection.

 

[Silent Ludicrosy]

Expect EXTRA FUD today.
Tesla App down for extended times.
People Locked out of their cars.

Tesla's App Goes Down for Hours, Leaving Some Stranded

Some stupid owners there who need to learn their car. The app was down, but even with a dead FOB you wouldn’t be locked out or prevented from driving. I was out when this happened and was slightly inconvenienced when I couldn’t pre-cool the car leaving the store.

 

[tivoboy]

@tivoboy - thoughts pls?

I haven't really participated here much at all lately, but I've been trading around this range for a couple months. Hold position, sell upside calls above $250 and sell puts down 190-200$ has worked well.

I may do ONE more round of that for Sept, but there are at the moment too many macro factors influencing the overall market - and many will directly impact Tesla volatility. Not to mention the overall global macro.

The RR for me taking doing another round of sell upside calls again (I think this is VERY low risk, there is really no UPSIDE surprise risk and the premium for these calls has disappeared). And the RISK for selling downside puts has INCREASED and that premium has risen faster than the upside call premium has fallen - so, I'll work the math and possibly just hold and sell the calls. or take a small rise if we can any and sell the position.

Overall, I think from a price standpoint we'll see BELOW 200$ before we see OVER $270. There are many resistance levels above that are strong ones.. ~$235, certainly around the $255 level and ~$269. Getting up and through them will require a very strong upside surprise - like "taking private".. or some merger or battery partnership (build a plant for VW in europe or something like that). And I don't see that on the horizon at this point.

I'll be back in a couple months and we'll discuss.