Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[aubreymcfato]

Uninformed opinion: could it be that big money are beginning to understand that all those Tesla Killers are a dud?
The stock is steadily growing in these days, after Taycan and ID reveal.

 

[KarenRei]

...the stock is still down ~36% from the high set back in mid-2017 when major revenue levers like:

1. Model 3 wasn't at production scale
2. China GF3 wasn't ready to go or even announced
3. Model Y, Semi, and Pickup weren't getting ready for production

...what am I missing?

More dilution since then. Significantly slower ramp than planned in 2017. Macro fears. Profit concerns (ASP fallen faster than volume increase and COGS declines have made up for it, M3 cannibalization of S/X). People still spooked by Q1.

Except for the macros and dilution, nothing that a good quarter or two can't fix, mind you. And there's obviously a lot of great things in the plus column. For example, virtually nobody except for "Teslemmings" believed that GF3 would be built as fast or cheap as Tesla did it. Now it's going to be an immensely valuable asset to them (really, the whole China picture - apart from macros - has turned amazing for them in the mid to long term).

 

[powertoold]

Uninformed opinion: could it be that big money are beginning to understand that all those Tesla Killers are a dud?
The stock is steadily growing in these days, after Taycan and ID reveal.

That or they're starting to realize that EVs are the future.

 

[Right_Said_Fred]

...the stock is still down ~36% from the high set back in mid-2017 when major revenue levers like:

1. Model 3 wasn't at production scale
2. China GF3 wasn't ready to go or even announced
3. Model Y, Semi, and Pickup weren't getting ready for production

...what am I missing?

It probably was a bit overvalued then. It is undervalued now.

 

[j6Lpi429@3j]

I think a lot of 'analysts' have taken a look at the specs comparison between the model 3 and the 'tesla killers' (lol) and realized that not only are tesla not being killed, they are likely the new killers.

 

[BBone]

Sorry if the below has been already posted from www.reddit.com/r/teslamotors/

Legendary Ferrari test pilot Dario Benuzzi testing the Model3 around the Maranello area. Benuzzi was the chief test pilot for the prancing horse for 48 years (!!!). A living icon appreciating the future of automotive.

"He likes the steering wheel in comfort mode, not so much in sport. Appreciates the front suspensions, a bit less the rear. Loves the regen. even more so in Track Mode. All in all, he adores the M3. This man drove and most of all developed cars for almost 5 decades and what cars! Several F1 cars, F40, F40 Le Mans, F50, La Ferrari, Scuderia, 333, 430, 360, 550, 575, 458, F12, Testarossa, Enzo, you name it. Seeing him loving the Tesla M3 is a pleasure and a testament to how good the car is. If he could only donate some of his soul to this car, it would be even better. He is the true tailor of sports cars and one of the last remaining. Maybe Elon Musk should have both him and Nico Rosberg challenge each other at the Nurburgring."

You are soooo right! Benuzzi would be a dream and talk about racing soul and Ferrari is "super fantastico" (according to Translate). Now your suggestion of having both Benuzzi and Rosberg just makes a girl's or guy's heart all a flutter!

 

[j6Lpi429@3j]

...also maybe this macro news is helping?
China scraps some US tariffs ahead of trade talks

China scraps some US tariffs ahead of trade talks

 

[LJS22]

Uninformed opinion: could it be that big money are beginning to understand that all those Tesla Killers are a dud?
The stock is steadily growing in these days, after Taycan and ID reveal.

The original narrative was that an established car company could catch Tesla within a year of going to production. It seems now Tesla is sitting on a much bigger head start than many realized. The superchargers, Giga factories, a compelling car for the masses, and software that keeps their cars ahead. Now is it worth it for automakers to invest in an EV that will ultimately be compared to the juggernaut that Tesla is in the landscape?

 

[mrmage]

2024 Tesla convertible is 101.955, up 2% from 99.911 yesterday. As TSLA SP goes up towards the conversion price of $310, the convertible bond will more closely match the SP changes, similar to a 2024 in-the-money call option.

 

[SpaceCash]

SHE BULLISH AF

 

[wipster]

Note that the email from JG isn't necessarily about Model 3 production increase:

Tesla is preparing a mysterious production capacity increase - Electrek​

If they increased production beyond the 5-10% QoQ that would result in the estimated 100k-105k deliveries, where did those cars go? Europe, China and RHD countries seem to be accounted for, and InsideEVs's Q3 US delivery numbers are modest so far.

Down under mate!

 

[kengchang]

Also, we got our solar PV + 2 Powerwall installation signed off by the local inspector on Monday, but the power company has advised 10-12 weeks (!!!!) for permit to operate. Can Tesla recognize our system in Q3 if it doesn’t receive PTO until Q4? (I realize we’re merely a drop in the bucket!)

You pay when your city signs off, so it will be recognized in Q3. Tesla doesn't submit your system for PTO until you have paid.

 

[Tslynk67]

Pfff, I tried to buy a $252.50 lottery ticket for this Friday earlier, forlorn hope that was, now up 500%

>8000 open interest in Jan 2021 $690 strike - I guess this is the case of people buying the cheapest price

...also maybe this macro news is helping?
China scraps some US tariffs ahead of trade talks

China scraps some US tariffs ahead of trade talks

Can't do any harm, can it? It's rather symbolic than material, but demonstrates goodwill.

Options - earlier, I tried to buy a $252.50 lottery ticket for this Friday, didn't quite make it, now up nearly 800%

More on options, a lot of open interest in the highest strike ($690) for Jan 2021. Am I right in thinking that buying the cheapest, highest strike is a common hedging strategy?

 

[Stars aligned]

Now, this makes some sense to me.... Tesla S now testing the waters.. heck, I could get excited.
tesla-roadster-supercar-break-nurburgring-record-next-year

 

[Unpilot]

It would appear that there was some money sitting on the sidelines

 

[Mokuzai]

@SpaceCash should announce intent on buying regardless of price every week!

 

[SpaceCash]

@SpaceCash should announce intent on buying regardless of price every week!

 

[KarenRei]

Ask yourselves, what was the most noteworthy thing that happened this week before the runup?

Hmm.... coincidence? I don't think so.

 

[KarenRei]

Wow, bitter much, Jalopnik?

 

[Unpilot]

Wow, bitter much, Jalopnik?

View attachment 453370

That is one angry man for sure.
Maybe a nice walk in the woods...or a new M3 would help