Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Tslynk67]

Vincent on Twitter

ED: Dang, beaten to it by seconds

Loser!

 

[Etna]

TSLAQ harassing French regulators to try to weaponise them against Tesla re: Autopilot.

Model_Q on Twitter

Any French people here want to counter?

The letter to regulators reads like one written by a total psychopath, and will go straight to the recycle bin. I wouldn't worry about it.

 

[Bobfitz1]

Paid advertising and creating publicity are two different things and have different effects on consumer's mindsets. People don't trust traditional advertising and Tesla gains street cred by not advertising. This cred is all lost the minute you see a TV ad or big billboard trying to convince you to buy a Tesla.

How about a 20 second ad (or billboard) showing a Tesla owner giving his friends/family a test drive?
The kicker being something like "Friends with Teslas don't let friends buy a new car until they drive a Tesla."

Not an ad that needs to been seen 50 times to plant the idea that Tesla owners love their EVs and love giving test drives to family and friends. Such a low cost effort would NOT be trying to convince anyone to buy a Tesla. Just to ask a friend for a test drive to see what all the excitement is about. The objective isn't to sell more cars next quarter but to give an extra push to the best demand generator of all. Word of mouth and test drives. This would also serve Tesla's mission since if EV knowledge and enthusiasm exceed Tesla production capacity it makes it that much more obvious to ICE manufacturers that they must give their EV projects 110% priority.

 

[j6Lpi429@3j]

I have to admit, I find the last few days stock price action to be baffling. What exactly is going on here? Are the big investors *really* this blind?
We can ALL see now that the taycan is not ANY competition whatsoever.
We can see that hardly anybody wants an audi e-tron, now whatever what they do.
We can see that the jaguar i-pace isn't even much of a threat either...

So currently the model S,X and 3 are all entirely unopposed. There is ample evidence that manufacturing is coming soon to China, and that Chinese demand is extremely strong. There is evidence of very strong demand in Europe, Elon has been relatively quiet, there is no *bad* news coming from anywhere...

And yet Tesla stock is still below its level a year ago. This is totally insane. The stock MUST be a lower risk now we have the chinese factory making such progress, the competition shown to be useless, and more tech breakthroughs coming internally, along with the maxwell acquisition, talk of plaid mode, million mile batteries and so on...
Plus V10 software is nearly here.

Why are people not buying, this stock seems like a no-brainer.... but then...its taken people THIS LONG to see wework is overvalued so...maybe investors are just idiots?

 

[Mars ☰mperor]

T☰SLA Mania on Twitter

Latest photo showing Model 3 body in white in @Tesla Gigafactory Shanghai. The starting of production seems imminent.

People are joking this is going to be a present for China’s National Day, which is on October 1.

Quite plausible actually.​

As a Chinese, I can attest to the "present thing".
Every year, countless projects are rushed to be given as presents to the country.
And the Shanghai government would surely like to and give a big freaking present to the Communist Party, and will certainly make sure it happens.

Just to share some additional perspectives.

I can't emphasize enough that the Gigafactory Shanghai is not just about Tesla.
Sure, Tesla has got the halo effect, but it's as much, if not more, about demonstrating China's ability to do great things much much faster to better attract other investment.
The bears and those immoral journalists from CNBC, Bloomberg or Business Insider had no idea what they are fighting against. And they still do not have any idea.
Even bulls outside China do not realize what Giga 3 really is.

The Gigafactory Shanghai is a success since the day it's a muddy field.
The Chinese Communist Party will not allow things to go wrong.
I'm not trying to sound optimistic here, because the success of the Gigafactory does not necessarily mean great sales.
Also there is still a lot of education to give about EV in China.
The Tesla owner base here also needs to grow bigger to be able to generate more stable organic demand.
Still, I'm cautiously optimistic.

In short, the current China might be arguably the most powerful dictatorship that has ever existed in human history.
Although in this case, not everything this dictatorship does is bad.
Oligarchy or dictatorship, that doesn't matter.
The important thing is that, domestically, you don't go against the will of this government.

You have to be a Chinese to fully grasp this.
Most western journalists reporting on China do not and can not understand.
If you live in China long enough as a Chinese and see enough sugar (good or bad) happening around you, you will know it.

 

[hobbes]

There was some speculation yesterday as to whether smart summon was going out to early access with V10 - this article confirms that:



Tesla Autopilot & Lane Change Improvements in Tesla Software V10 — CleanTechnica Review | CleanTechnica

And release notes have leaked, too- interesting that it says "Enhanced Summon is designed to allow your car to drive to you (using your phone´s GPS as a target destination) or a location of your choosing...". Didn´t know you could direct it elsewhere, which at least makes a very good party trick. Imagine you leaving from a restaurant, you go out to fetch the car, your company follows a bit later and is the car drives up to pick them up - but without you in it .

Smart Summon on V10!!! Found in Facebook : teslamotors

 

[X Fan]

Vincent on Twitter

ED: Dang, beaten to it by seconds

Kudos to Tesla for getting this done before end of Q3. FWIW: with China accomplished ahead of time, leaks stopped, Elon tweeting less and mostly responding to business issues there appears to be an emerging maturity to our favored company.

It may not reflect in the stock price right now but it sure makes me much more comfortable re: my significant investment (cars + stock).

 

[jerry33]

I wish that I shared your confidence. However, the motto has changed: "by the people corporations for the people corporations" seems more accurate when lobbyists literally write the text of the law (sure, it enters via a legislator, but the source has been shown on more than one occasion).

Even if there's a change in government there's still the "can't wreck the economy" line where "too big to fail" leads to "big government bailouts."

I'd love to be wrong.

There will still be an auto industry, it's just won't include more than one of the so called big three.

 

[Dreadnought]

A week ago, people were saying:

“More Elon bullshit! A Tesla can’t even complete a lap around the ring before going into limp mode! My Miata is faster around the track!”

Now:

“Porsche only lost to Tesla by 20 seconds on the ring because they weren’t using street-legal tires!”

That’s a big change in 7 days. Love it.

I respect Porsche’s racing chops but am under no illusions that their designs are unbeatable on the track.

With all the attention to the Plaid, a halfway decent Raven time would hopefully put an end to the "Model S overheats and goes into limp mode" narrative and therefore be a big win in itself. Applying to a car available now, not 12 months out.

This, btw, is one discipline where Tesla can learn from Porsche: One car holds max power for several minutes, the other just a meager 2.5 seconds. Yet, one is perceived as slowing down while the other one features an "overboost". Porsche may have good engineers but they really excel at PR. Impressive what they achieved with this change of perspective.

 

[EVNow]

Just curious about thoughts on recognizing FSD revenue in Q3 vs Q4. One might imagine <somebody> pushing for SOMETHING to go out in Q3 (and there’s not much time left!) if they were in need of help, but if we end up seeing Smart Summon not being quite ready for general release by Sep 30, does that set them up for realizing it in Q4?

Does it NOT being in the initial v10 rollout almost appear like a positive sign that they’re not desperate? (Or maybe it still just sucks a bit too much that they couldn’t get it in Q3 even if they want/need it?)

Smart summon allows recognition of Enhanced AP completely. Only a small portion of FSD. But, most of EAP revenue has already been recognized. So, one time recognition of already deferred revenue just for Smart Summon is not much.

 

[StealthP3D]

Why are people not buying, this stock seems like a no-brainer.... but then...its taken people THIS LONG to see wework is overvalued so...maybe investors are just idiots?

People are buying Tesla stock (and by the millions). They are just getting a really good deal on it!

Investors are idiots in the aggregate. More like lemmings. The masses are waiting until we have already experienced most of the gains. Then they will say, "hey, that's a really successful company, I want some of that". And then it will go up some more. They will like how smart they were so they will buy some more and it will go up some more. Then the media will write about how successful Tesla is as a company and how dominant they are and how well Tesla investors have done. Then more people will want some of that. Then the most shy investors will step in, figuring it's a safe bet because Tesla is such a big, successful company and everyone is switching to electric cars, every analyst likes TSLA and the stock price is confirming what a good investment it is and how much future value Tesla must have above the current value so it will go up some more. Then the big funds and smarter individuals will figure it's over-valued, even if the next 5 years are perfection, it can't go up anymore so they will sell. The price will fall. A lot. Then the analysts will put sell ratings on TSLA and it will go down some more. But it will still be worth more than it is currently.

Right now investors are still nervous about Tesla, don't know how it's going to unfold, don't want to lose their money and are still in the "show me" mindset. You just know more about it, have more risk tolerance and are earlier to the game.

 

[Artful Dodger]

So currently the model S,X and 3 are all entirely unopposed. There is ample evidence that manufacturing is coming soon to China, and that Chinese demand is extremely strong. There is evidence of very strong demand in Europe, Elon has been relatively quiet, there is no *bad* news coming from anywhere...

Yeah, but Elon tweeted a year ago.

Shortzes don't need an excuse. Or they make *sugar* up when they need to. Either way, big money is having its way. Kinda depends on how long you are, don't it?

As long as Tesla remains cash flow positive, Traderz can trade til they're blue in the face, and it will NOT stop Tesla. The Revolution is inevitable, Mr. Anderson.

 

[dww12]

With all the attention to the Plaid, a halfway decent Raven time would hopefully put an end to the "Model S overheats and goes into limp mode" narrative and therefore be a big win in itself. Applying to a car available now, not 12 months out.

This, btw, is one discipline where Tesla can learn from Porsche: One car holds max power for several minutes, the other just a meager 2.5 seconds. Yet, one is perceived as slowing down while the other one features an "overboost". Porsche may have good engineers but they really excel at PR. Impressive what they achieved with this change of perspective.

Doesn’t overboost require a turbo? Lies on top of lies.

 

[Fred42]

Vincent on Twitter

ED: Dang, beaten to it by seconds

Too bad that color isn't available.

 

[Intl Professor]

I wish that I shared your confidence. However, the motto has changed: "by the people corporations for the people corporations" seems more accurate when lobbyists literally write the text of the law (sure, it enters via a legislator, but the source has been shown on more than one occasion).

Even if there's a change in government there's still the "can't wreck the economy" line where "too big to fail" leads to "big government bailouts."

I'd love to be wrong.

If theDems win, expect big subsidies aimed at preparing for and placing labor in clean tech.

 

[ZachF]

Is dual front motors really worth while? You don't need torque vectoring, most towing weight is on the rear axle, and the traction control plus open diff work well. Two of the smallest motors seem overkill.

I get a feeling that this initial truck is more of a "look what an EV platform can do" statement. IIRC, the Rivian has 4 motors.

[QUOTE="lascavarian, post: 4027467, member: 63181"The real opening is on the low end. There are millions of potential customers on the low end that are unlikely to see a Tesla product in the near future. Low end market sales are the low hanging fruit.

If these automakers want to thrive then they will need to develop products for markets where they won’t have Tesla as a competitor for a few years.

While it's true that Tesla won't have a low end car for a few years, it's also true that there is very little profit margin at the low end.[/QUOTE]

I have a feeling that in the future Chinese makes will dominate on the low end and Tesla in the higher end.

Most ICE brands will die during the transition.

The innovator's dilemma is a thing. It's hard to devote billions to r&d when sales of you previously profitable ICE cars are collapsing.

 

[Tslynk67]

Raven ships with a rear AC induction motor, which will overheat. It is the nature of the design, because there's no way to cool the copper windings on the internal rotor.

Wishfull thinking doesn't change the physiks, but Plaid does because SRPM motors do not have rotors that overheat. They don't have any copper windings on those rotors, which are just pieces of plain steel, not even with permanent magnets, which are on the external stator. That's why the Plaid prototypes don't need to roll back power when driven hard.

It might be helpful if you studied about the motor designs. Jus' sayin'. Raven will overheat when driven hard at the 'ring.

 

[ZachF]

Auto industry will likely be bailed out again. What will happen to Wall St in the next crash ?

Do you really want to know the answer?....

 

[StealthP3D]

OFF topic: agreed about the inefficiency, but what %age of people have heat-pumps? I know one person only

You mean in their houses? I installed one in our cabin 18 months ago and it's awesome in terms of how much heat it puts out per kWh. In mild weather it heats around 3-5 times as efficiently as resistive heat. In really cold weather it's max output drops as does efficiency. My heat pump is optimised for cool climates but it still has trouble in the very cold. It can ice up and need to go through a defrost cycle in humid weather when run hard. I only use it when it's too mild to heat with a catalytic wood burner. If you buy a heat pump primarily for heating, make sure you get one optimized for heating because most of them are optimized for cooling and output drops even more in really cold weather (as does efficiency).

I imagine the Renault's heat pump is optimized for cold weather and the A/C is not as cold as the Model 3 in hot weather. There are always trade-offs.

If Tesla had installed a heat pump optimized for cold weather, they would lose some performance capability due to reduced cooling potential and also suffer lower efficiency in hot weather. If they installed one optimized for hot weather then the cabin heater would probably be weak in really cold weather.

 

[Cherry Wine]

Is CA about to weaponize electric car rebates in its emissions battle against Trump? | CalMatters

California is considering a plan that would reward automakers that have signed onto a pact with the state to cut pollution — and punish those that haven’t — by restricting which companies are eligible for millions of dollars in government rebates when consumers buy clean cars.

...

Among the currently eligible electric car makers who would be excluded if they don’t play ball: Chevrolet (manufacturer of the Chevy Bolt EV), Fiat (the Fiat 500e) and Hyundai (the and Hyundai Ioniq Electric). The bill, as currently drafted, would also exclude plug-in hybrids (which would mean two strikes against Toyota, which manufactures the popular Prius). A Toyota spokesperson declined a request for comment. Other car makers did not respond.