Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Artful Dodger]

View attachment 456316

@mongo See what happens?

 

[NicoV]

Vincent on Twitter

ED: Dang, beaten to it by seconds

Look at those panel gaps!

On a more serious note: Am I the only one who finds it curious that these cars are on push carts instead of on a assembly line?

 

[pnungesser]

You mean in their houses? I installed one in our cabin 18 months ago and it's awesome in terms of how much heat it puts out per kWh. In mild weather it heats around 3-5 times as efficiently as resistive heat. In really cold weather it's max output drops as does efficiency. My heat pump is optimised for cool climates but it still has trouble in the very cold. It can ice up and need to go through a defrost cycle in humid weather when run hard. I only use it when it's too mild to heat with a catalytic wood burner. If you buy a heat pump primarily for heating, make sure you get one optimized for heating because most of them are optimized for cooling and output drops even more in really cold weather (as does efficiency).

OT, but I have two heat pumps that operate well in extreme heat and cool. That because I don't transfer heat to and from the air, but to and from a buried (6' deep) water loop (geo-thermal). The water never gets that cold in the winter or that hot in the summer. Also, transfer to dense water is much easier than to air. Great system if you have enough land.

 

[j0hn]

Look at those panel gaps!

On a more serious note: Am I the only one who finds it curious that these cars are on push carts instead of on a assembly line?

Look again , looks like there is some kind of sled on the push car. One of the photos leaked before showed some sort of floor based sled system.

My guess is they can insert / extract these sleds at any point in the process

 

[Cherry Wine]

Citing 'financial risk,' UC pledges to divest from fossil fuels | CalMatters

In what is already shaping up to be a banner week for climate policy watchers, the University of California on Tuesday announced it will divest its $83 billion in endowment and pension funds from the fossil fuel industry, a move that could send ripple effects throughout higher education nationally.

...

“We believe hanging onto fossil fuel assets is a financial risk,” chief investment officer Jagdeep Singh Bachher and Richard Sherman, chair of the university regents’ investment committee, wrote in an opinion piece published in the Los Angeles Times.

 

[Krugerrand]

I follow your reasoning but have to disagree: Elon is not trying to prevent other car companies from entering Tesla's markets. The reason of Tesla's existence is to force others to enter the market.

Competitors can't immediately enter the low end market (= low margin, high volume) since they lack the batteries. Entering the market means entering the high margin, low volume luxury market first.

So in my view Musk is saying: ICE's are obsolete, you HAVE to enter the BEV market as soon as possible....but Tesla will always stay ahead.

And I disagree with you. I think he is trying to prevent and kill others. He pretty much said he’d kill them because they didn’t join him.

We have the Chinese EVs to take the lower end of the market.

 

[kengchang]

 

[Cherry Wine]

A reminder that today TSLA could be subject to volatility in macros as the US Federal Reserve announces its intentions with regard to interest rates - expected at 11AM Pacific/2PM Eastern.

Fed decision and Jerome Powell press conference: live blog and video

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

And I disagree with you. I think he is trying to prevent and kill others. He pretty much said he’d kill them because they didn’t join him.

We have the Chinese EVs to take the lower end of the market.

Agree with this thought. At first it seemed like Elon/Tesla was ok with having the niche production that was the Halo products of the EV space. But with their aggressive pricing across all models this year while increasing the value/range at the same time, I've sense a notable change in their approach and attitude. They've said screw it with maintaining a high level of profitability, we just need to be positive FCF. Elon has seemed less and less focused on the stock price and/or shorts. They're frustrated with the lack of progression from practically everyone else in the market and are now focusing on taking as much EV marketshare as possible.

After they announce their battery tech breakthroughs and unlock true super mass production of battery cells and packs and have Model 3/Y production to 1-1.5 million/year, I expect them to continue lower the 3/Y/S/X prices. Them lowering 3/Y prices will enter those cars into truly mass appeal price brackets. I definitely see a sub 30k Model 3 version in 2 years.

Edit: I could also see them lowering the S/X prices so much in 2 years that annual production could be 150-200k/year. The announcement from Elon that the Pickup truck will start for under 50k was a definite shot at pickup auto makers that Tesla isn't interested in the huge margins that trucks get right now. GM/Ford/Dodge better be prepared

 

[Tslynk67]

A reminder that today TSLA could be subject to volatility in macros as the US Federal Reserve announces its intentions with regard to interest rates - expected at 11AM Pacific/2PM Eastern.

Fed decision and Jerome Powell press conference: live blog and video

And then tomorrow it will be OI's phoney trade-war. Then the day after some sabre-rattling with Iran.

I only started investing February 2016 and then things mostly traded on what Tesla was up to, then uncertainty of the election, but now it's just whichever way the wind blows...

 

[SpaceCash]

Have you seen what passes for FUD nowadays?
*shakin my head*
I remember when SAF used to have some editorial standards, dangit

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

View attachment 456326

I continue to not believe in Ihor's numbers. The trading last week especially doesn't correlate with shares shorted decreasing. Anyone watching the stock action during last week and the heavy volume(compared to the last 2-3 weeks average volume) could see that the stock was being capped/manipulated multiple times with pretty decent sized sell blocks throughout the entire week.

 

[EVNow]

A reminder that today TSLA could be subject to volatility in macros as the US Federal Reserve announces its intentions with regard to interest rates - expected at 11AM Pacific/2PM Eastern.

Fed decision and Jerome Powell press conference: live blog and video

Thanks for that. I somehow missed it - I'll hold off on any options today.

BTW, Can the motor cooling discussions be moved to a different thread ?​

 

[CorneliusXX]

Just to share some additional perspectives.

I can't emphasize enough that the Gigafactory Shanghai is not just about Tesla.
Sure, Tesla has got the halo effect, but it's as much, if not more, about demonstrating China's ability to do great things much much faster to better attract other investment.
The bears and those immoral journalists from CNBC, Bloomberg or Business Insider had no idea what they are fighting against. And they still do not have any idea.
Even bulls outside China do not realize what Giga 3 really is.

The Gigafactory Shanghai is a success since the day it's a muddy field.
The Chinese Communist Party will not allow things to go wrong.
I'm not trying to sound optimistic here, because the success of the Gigafactory does not necessarily mean great sales.
Also there is still a lot of education to give about EV in China.
The Tesla owner base here also needs to grow bigger to be able to generate more stable organic demand.
Still, I'm cautiously optimistic.

In short, the current China might be arguably the most powerful dictatorship that has ever existed in human history.
Although in this case, not everything this dictatorship does is bad.
Oligarchy or dictatorship, that doesn't matter.
The important thing is that, domestically, you don't go against the will of this government.

You have to be a Chinese to fully grasp this.
Most western journalists reporting on China do not and can not understand.
If you live in China long enough as a Chinese and see enough sugar (good or bad) happening around you, you will know it.

I love the sentiment. Many here said as much throughout the early days of the factory build process.

It is almost the perfect combination of internal and external advertising for the Chinese government.

For internal consumption there is the prestige of getting Tesla, the symbolism of reducing pollution, attraction of high tech industries, lots of jobs and opportunities, etc.

Externally it's a huge advertisement, if you want to build a large project, China will make it happen. However I think it's gone a step further since then as it is a signal that China is open for business without forcing technology transfers, which undermines one of Trump's arguments in the trade war.

I disagree that sales aren't guaranteed. If the general Chinese population doesn't buy Tesla's en masse I'd expect to see a lot of government staff driving Teslas. The last thing they want after all the effort to build the factory is for it to turn into a white elephant.

 

[JusRelax]

View attachment 456326

Just a hunch, but I get the feeling when the 9/15 numbers come out they will be noticeably higher than this. We've had discussions in this forum speculating that shorts were working hard to cap gains the past week or two.

 

[humbaba]

I continue to not believe in Ihor's numbers. The trading last week especially doesn't correlate with shares shorted decreasing. Anyone watching the stock action during last week and the heavy volume(compared to the last 2-3 weeks average volume) could see that the stock was being capped/manipulated multiple times with pretty decent sized sell blocks throughout the entire week.

Yes, looking at that graph it does not show the evident, recent growth in short interest. Probably not wrong by that much, but I do think it is in error.

 

[Hock1]

Yes, looking at that graph it does not show the evident, recent growth in short interest. Probably not wrong by that much, but I do think it is in error.

He gives no consideration to the net FTDs at any time. IMO, there are considerable FTDs that are not being properly reported. These are a key component of the ability to cap the stock.

 

[CorneliusXX]

Agree with this thought. At first it seemed like Elon/Tesla was ok with having the niche production that was the Halo products of the EV space. But with their aggressive pricing across all models this year while increasing the value/range at the same time, I've sense a notable change in their approach and attitude. They've said screw it with maintaining a high level of profitability, we just need to be positive FCF. Elon has seemed less and less focused on the stock price and/or shorts. They're frustrated with the lack of progression from practically everyone else in the market and are now focusing on taking as much EV marketshare as possible.

After they announce their battery tech breakthroughs and unlock true super mass production of battery cells and packs and have Model 3/Y production to 1-1.5 million/year, I expect them to continue lower the 3/Y/S/X prices. Them lowering 3/Y prices will enter those cars into truly mass appeal price brackets. I definitely see a sub 30k Model 3 version in 2 years.

Edit: I could also see them lowering the S/X prices so much in 2 years that annual production could be 150-200k/year. The announcement from Elon that the Pickup truck will start for under 50k was a definite shot at pickup auto makers that Tesla isn't interested in the huge margins that trucks get right now. GM/Ford/Dodge better be prepared

If you listen to the end of the Joe Rogan interview, Elon states in a rather despondent tone (after a few whiskies) that the EV transition is going too slowly.

I think his decisions are focused on what gets the most EVs out to customers. If other OEMs can help then great, otherwise Tesla will do it themselves.

The idea of market share, competition, etc is kind of superseded through this lense. It's all focused on what gets the most EVs on the road.

 

[bhzmark]

So does advertising lead to more Tesla sales or not?

It should shift the demand curve up.

Only if you have more product than you can sell. Tesla doesn't.

Only because Tesla pulled another lever to shift the demand curve up - -lowering prices aka giving more car for the same price.

It's not obvious to me that some additional marketing in the form of some more traditional advertising would not allow Tesla to support higher prices for the given supply -- thus allowing the supply and demand curves to intersect at a place yielding a higher gross margin net advertising.

But some advertising would risk yielding a lower quality customer -- some customers are more trouble than they are worth.

I wonder if the strategy to avoid traditional advertising helps Tesla to grow more organically with a more self-selecting and ultimately better, more profitable, customer base --- keeping the demand curve a little lower on price dimension, but higher on the customer quality dimension (faster and cheaper initial sale and post sale: fewer stupid questions, less burdening customer support and service, etc.).

 

[humbaba]

I continue to not believe in Ihor's numbers. The trading last week especially doesn't correlate with shares shorted decreasing. Anyone watching the stock action during last week and the heavy volume(compared to the last 2-3 weeks average volume) could see that the stock was being capped/manipulated multiple times with pretty decent sized sell blocks throughout the entire week.

Thing to remember is that what we are doing here is qualitative analysis. That's easy compared to what @ihors3 is doing -- he's doing quantitative analysis. There's a big difference and it is much harder to quantify the short interest. The method used takes their data and runs it through a model to give answers. That is objective and gives repeatable results, not something to be scoffed at.

The way I see it, his numbers give quantities that we can refine to a better approximation.