Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Hock1]

Imagine that, market participants asking regulators to prevent blatant market manipulation. What is the world coming to?

I'd personally prefer Musk not pump the stock then dump all his shares and move the proceeds into un-traceable offshore assets before fleeing to a country with no extradition treaty. But reasonable minds can differ, lol.

"Market participants"? What are they, exactly?

 

[Artful Dodger]

[edit: okay, found old.nasdaq and its better, but even that indicates >300k shares in the last minute?]

211.792 traded during the minute @ 16:00 according to NASDAQ, here:

Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) Interactive Chart

 

[Artful Dodger]

which makes Winnipeggers the world leader of Slurpee insulin sales.

FTFY

 

[Johann Koeber]

Jochen Rudat (Director Central Europe) is leaving Tesla. According to electric drive.net he will have a similar role at Automobili Pininfarina. This company, located in Munich, is preparing to sell high class electric cars.

Jochen Rudat wechselt von Tesla zu Automobili Pininfarina - electrive.net

Rudat joined Tesla in 2009. At that time he was selling the Tesla Roadster. I have met him on several occasions and liked him. I regret that another Tesla veteran is leaving and hope that Tesla will find or has found adequate replacement.

 

[Fact Checking]

Does anyone know what route Tesla cars take to Japan?
Do these go via China, or are they shipped separately, perhaps from Oakland/Long Beach like for Australia?

The first RoRo to leave Pier 80 in Q2 went to Japan. That's the only mention of Japan I find on Franco's spreadsheet.

I have (vague) memories of reading that one of the RoRo ships stopped in Shanghai with next stop possibly Japan - but I don't remember the source.

Here's a heat map of global marine traffic:

Based on that the more probable route would be for a RoRo ship to first stop in Japan, then Shanghai, to maximize the capacity utilized.

Note how close to Japan the ships from SF to Shanghai are traveling anyway due to the curvature of Earth: Japan is in the "way" of shortest route ship traffic to Shanghai. But if they send ships with cars for both Japan and China then Japan would be the ship's first destination port marked in Franco's spreadsheet.

Note the problem of Australia: it's not really a natural "next destination" when shipping cars to Japan or China, and it probably wouldn't make sense to send a full RoRo ship on such a long leg with a partial shipment.

Anyway, a single Q2 ship to Japan in April, as noted on Franco's spreadsheet looks like the most probable answer, IMHO. So no Q3 RoRo shipments to Japan?

 

[Reinhard]

Tesla: Expectations Are Set Too High For Q3 - Tesla, Inc. (NASDAQ:TSLA) | Seeking Alpha

jaberwock estimates total deliveries of 90,000 for Q3 based on @troyteslike's spreadsheet. jaberwock estimates a 15% drop in US M3 sales to 37,500 while troyteslike estimates a 20% increase to 55,000.

Jaberwock bases his estimate on the number of entries in troyteslike's data sheet. 290 in q2 vs 232 in Q3. Troyteslike bases his number on NY registrations 1491 Q2 vs 1456 Q3.

Does anyone have a link to the NY data?

 

[Artful Dodger]

I’m not holding it against the guy. He fully owned up to being wrong.

Did he get paid by the view for that clickbait headline? This is yellow journalism at its worst. Tepid apologies afterward, tweeted to a self-selected handful of readers, do not compensate for the damage this Reporter caused to Elon's reputation.

Just because its rampant practice doesn't make it any more ethical. The 'Freedom of the Press' clause of the First Amendment provides the same protection to yellow Journalists as the 'Freedom of Religion' clause does for predator Priests.

Do the crime; expect the time. Libel is libel.

 

[Fact Checking]

Broad V10 release possible next week:

Elon Musk on Twitter

"Fixing several minor bugs & a regression in highway driving, so probably early to mid next week"​

Q3 ends on Monday the week after, so the release date of V10 is certainly an FSD deferred revenue nail-biter ...

 

[willow_hiller]

Q3 ends on Monday the week after, so the release date of V10 is certainly an FSD deferred revenue nail-biter ..

Really goes to show those articles claiming Elon would recklessly release autonomous software for recognizing revenue were dead wrong. He really cares about safety when a minor regression in highway performance is enough to delay the release of this highly anticipated feature.

 

[Todd Burch]

I’m not holding it against the guy. He fully owned up to being wrong.

Link please? I’m seeking an entertaining read.

 

[EVNow]

Broad V10 release possible next week:

Elon Musk on Twitter

"Fixing several minor bugs & a regression in highway driving, so probably early to mid next week"​

Q3 ends on Monday the week after, so the release date of V10 is certainly an FSD deferred revenue nail-biter ...

They will release it if they want the revenue in Q3. If there are small issues to be fixed still, they can do a dot release a week later - which they do all the time.

 

[SO16]

Link please? I’m seeking an entertaining read.

Just on his twitter feed. But really he should issue a new article stating how he was wrong. As others have said, blasting out a negative article which is picked up by many sites but then issuing a retraction on his twitter feed that would most likely have less views, isn’t enough.

 

[EVNow]

jaberwock estimates a 15% drop in US M3 sales to 37,500 while troyteslike estimates a 20% increase to 55,000.

For this to be true, insideevs has to be very wrong this time. Even in Q2, they weren't wrong. Insideevs has the first 2 months at ~26k. The 3rd month has to be lower than the first two months ...

 

[Todd Burch]

Just on his twitter feed. But really he should issue a new article stating how he was wrong. As others have said, blasting out a negative article which is picked up by many sites but then issuing a retraction on his twitter feed that would most likely have less views, isn’t enough.

Case in point: I saw the article but don’t follow the mean kids on the Twitter machine.

 

[Fred42]

Has anyone seen this? This is not a negative, this is why you test at the Ring.

That was painful to watch.

The Taycan is an attractive car.

What was with the flak? The American invaders are on the ground, not in the air.

 

[Reinhard]

For this to be true, insideevs has to be very wrong this time. Even in Q2, they weren't wrong. Insideevs has the first 2 months at ~26k. The 3rd month has to be lower than the first two months ...

So how does insideevs come to their estimate?

While we will never fully divulge the exact methods, we would love to provide some clarity to help everyone to better understand the situation. Tesla does not break down monthly sales figures by country. So, they do not release delivery data for the U.S. at all. Instead, Tesla offers a global look at the end of each quarter. For this reason, our monthly Tesla delivery data is estimated. It's impossible to be 100% accurate. One primary source of data is VIN numbers and additional delivery information reported by Tesla buyers around the web, social media, and to InsideEVs directly. t the end of each quarter, after Tesla releases final sales numbers and global data, we adjust our U.S. numbers as needed. We only make adjustments at the end of a quarter and after global registrations are in.

I would love the insideevs estimates to be true but I don't want to be caught in confirmation bias. I would love to see actual registration data similar to netherlands, norway and spain for US states.

 

[dc_h]

Does anyone know what route Tesla cars take to Japan?
Do these go via China, or are they shipped separately, perhaps from Oakland/Long Beach like for Australia?

They would have to be Oakland. I don’t think those are realistic numbers. Would be great, but seems unlikely. But would be great, but improbable.

 

[KarenRei]

For this to be true, insideevs has to be very wrong this time. Even in Q2, they weren't wrong. Insideevs has the first 2 months at ~26k. The 3rd month has to be lower than the first two months ...

Not just a little wrong - to get that number, you need 10891 sales in September. Literally half of June.

Welcome to short fantasyland.

 

[KarenRei]

So how does insideevs come to their estimate?

While we will never fully divulge the exact methods, we would love to provide some clarity to help everyone to better understand the situation. Tesla does not break down monthly sales figures by country. So, they do not release delivery data for the U.S. at all. Instead, Tesla offers a global look at the end of each quarter. For this reason, our monthly Tesla delivery data is estimated. It's impossible to be 100% accurate. One primary source of data is VIN numbers and additional delivery information reported by Tesla buyers around the web, social media, and to InsideEVs directly. t the end of each quarter, after Tesla releases final sales numbers and global data, we adjust our U.S. numbers as needed. We only make adjustments at the end of a quarter and after global registrations are in.

I would love the insideevs estimates to be true but I don't want to be caught in confirmation bias. I would love to see actual registration data similar to netherlands, norway and spain for US states.

I've made the mistake of not trusting InsideEVs numbers before (Q1), and don't plan to do that again.

(Of course we'd all love to have realtime data. But we don't.)

 

[dc_h]

They might as well have said "1 million vehicles". They clearly wanted a number large enough to be interpreted as "unlimited demand".

Honestly this is a huge margin vehicle for Amazon. I’ve been wanting Tesla to build a commercial sprinter van for years. These 100,000 trucks, if they happen are equal in oil displacement to 1-2 million model 3’s. These will drive a lot of miles in urban suburban areas where clean matters most.
I’d like to see Elon work with UPS and make 100,000 big brown Tesla vans.