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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

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No, Q3 deliveries expectations were much lower for many market participants:
  • FactSet expectations were 97k-98k,
  • most Wall Street estimates were characterized as being in the 95k-100k range,
  • quite a few Wall Street estimates were in the 80k-90k range,
  • almost none were above 100k,
  • the TMC consensus was 70k-80k,
  • TSLAQ was expecting anything between 0 and 70k,
I.e. almost all market participants, long or short, with serious positions, were expecting lower deliveries, which means that their reaction to yesterday's information of possibly 100k deliveries is to buy TSLA: either to buy more, or to buy to cover.

Another important factor is that very few market participants were surprised negatively by Elon's email, so very few would sell for anything but technical trading reasons. I.e. lower supply of shares to buy - and while shorts tried to cap the price below the $240-$250 level, that kind of selling pressure is not sustainable.

There's also relevance of 100k deliveries and the timely V10 release to Q3 profitability, making Q1'2020 based S&P 500 inclusion more probable next April/May, assuming Tesla can eek out a small profit in Q1'2020 - or August/September next year should Q1 be a small loss and Q2 be glorious.

So yesterday's TSLA price action was not a surprise IMHO.

BTW., there's another factor that probably played a role in the TSLA price action so far: to the extent bearish analysts were manipulating FactSet delivery expectations upwards, to artificially increase the "Wall Street expectations" figure to 98,000 and to assure that Tesla would miss these (fake) "expectations" - which would also mean that those analysts internally had lower expectations - so for them, their clients and their prop trading desks yesterday's surprise was even bigger.
 
OK, any chance Tesla Pickup happening before earnings ... (Oct)?

I'd be surprised if it was so: Tesla generally uses these unveilings as a "demand lever" to plug all their other products - this is what the Model Y unveil late February was after all, an emergency demand lever to help sales.

Q4 is expected to be pretty good, so in that sense a ~mid Q1 unveil would make the most sense.

If they do it in Q4 then I'd expect it to happen in mid-November, so that any new orders from the media hype would still fall on Q4.

Alternatively, they could also do a late Q4 unveil, to help bootstrap Q1 demand.

Early Q4 (October) would surprise me - but it's possible of course.
 
BTW., there's another factor that probably played a role in the TSLA price action so far: to the extent bearish analysts were manipulating FactSet delivery expectations upwards, to artificially increase the "Wall Street expectations" figure to 98,000 and to assure that Tesla would miss these (fake) "expectations" - which would also mean that those analysts internally had lower expectations - so for them, their clients and their prop trading desks yesterday's surprise was even bigger.

So EM didn't get the TMC memo to keep saying 78K :)
He could have send email to encourage the employees without providing any specific numbers :)

-- but then by next week we would have to begin climbing from low 200's instead ....
 
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It seems like the V10 software was pushed out faster and to more people. Hard to guesstimate what the revenue recognition impact is going to be or if/it will be discounted into the stock price, but the table is set for a big revenue beat. I think it is safe to say we will see at least sequential revenue growth, if not better, which will quell the "there is no demand issue from the bears", and it will come to gross margins on the model 3 and profitability. That is the last major argument from the CNBC TSLAQ crew, "Tesla can't make money on Model 3's."
 
Seymour is the worst of the bunch. He was the one who was categorically saying that unit volume was going to be down 30% or something to that effect. I don't mind their guest having opinions, but they never are held accountable, and in this case they are a source fo the major Tesla FUD machine. I don't have a problem with them being negative on a stock, but this seems more than personal for some reason and they never seem to have the data to back up their assertions.
 
That is the last major argument from the CNBC TSLAQ crew, "Tesla can't make money on Model 3's."
Sure Tesla can make money on Model 3, but they will never be able to money on their Pickup which is the only market that matters. Also they are drawing dead in autonomy and will get sued to death by all customers who for FSD.

Sure Tesla is first with autonomy, but Uber still have more customers and will soon release their superior software.

Sure Uber went bankrupt and Tesla has a large share of autonomy, but everyone knows that Amazon drones will soon replace cars and Tesla are drawing dead among drones.

Sure Tesla are dominating the drone market, but teleportation is right around the corner and Tesla’s investments will turn useless any day now.
 
Should be relatively easy to implement for Tesla with Siri Shortcuts. A couple of days work max. Gotta tweet that to the boss :)
...

I don’t know how shortcuts work - I assume there have to be hooks in the app code. The Tesla app doesn’t seem to have them (“Stats” does).

Tell the boss this is the scenario:

1) Finish morning coffee
2) “Hey Siri. Fire up Little Red”
3) Car unlocks
4) A/C on
5) Trunk/Frunk unlatches
6) Garage door opens
7) Walk to garage, throw backpack in Trunk/frunk
8) Go
 
Should be relatively easy to implement for Tesla with Siri Shortcuts. A couple of days work max. Gotta tweet that to the boss :)



I sometimes think people read way too much into these emails. Elon many times has said that he's no businessman and I'm convinced he doesn't care that much about the SP. It's a distraction, it's not his motivation. He won't be scheming to push the SP up by wording and timing an email leak. He ain't got time fo dat and he's an honest man.

We should read this email as what it is - a way to motivate people on the ground and push them towards a specific goal, a nice round record number. Don't mistake it for 100k in the bag.

Remember, buy the rumour, sell the news.

Curious. These emails that seem to pop out just before the end of the quarter. I always wonder how the US SEC looks at these. Could they not be looked at as a CEO trying to influence the stock price? I have no idea how American stock market rules are. Just curious.
 
Curious. These emails that seem to pop out just before the end of the quarter. I always wonder how the US SEC looks at these. Could they not be looked at as a CEO trying to influence the stock price? I have no idea how American stock market rules are. Just curious.

CEO gives an internal "Rah, Rah" speech to his crew ..
SEC should go investigate the fraud and price manipulation

+ As #Uno said, leaking stuff like this is treason. In the old days the leaker should get .... ;)