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No, Q3 deliveries expectations were much lower for many market participants:
I.e. almost all market participants, long or short, with serious positions, were expecting lower deliveries, which means that their reaction to yesterday's information of possibly 100k deliveries is to buy TSLA: either to buy more, or to buy to cover.
- FactSet expectations were 97k-98k,
- most Wall Street estimates were characterized as being in the 95k-100k range,
- quite a few Wall Street estimates were in the 80k-90k range,
- almost none were above 100k,
- the TMC consensus was 70k-80k,
- TSLAQ was expecting anything between 0 and 70k,
Another important factor is that very few market participants were surprised negatively by Elon's email, so very few would sell for anything but technical trading reasons. I.e. lower supply of shares to buy - and while shorts tried to cap the price below the $240-$250 level, that kind of selling pressure is not sustainable.
There's also relevance of 100k deliveries and the timely V10 release to Q3 profitability, making Q1'2020 based S&P 500 inclusion more probable next April/May, assuming Tesla can eek out a small profit in Q1'2020 - or August/September next year should Q1 be a small loss and Q2 be glorious.
So yesterday's TSLA price action was not a surprise IMHO.
OK, any chance Tesla Pickup happening before earnings ... (Oct)?
BTW., there's another factor that probably played a role in the TSLA price action so far: to the extent bearish analysts were manipulating FactSet delivery expectations upwards, to artificially increase the "Wall Street expectations" figure to 98,000 and to assure that Tesla would miss these (fake) "expectations" - which would also mean that those analysts internally had lower expectations - so for them, their clients and their prop trading desks yesterday's surprise was even bigger.
See No TSLA, Speak No TSLA, Hear No TSLA .... ($TSLAQ)
They do.Their blocking is their own worst enemy. Who wants to live in a bubble?
Nice catchSo when SP goes down on rumors it is OK, but internal email that gets leaked is not OK. SCUMBags
@4:09 on frame there is a shot with back screen saying Elon ... with the Ex cut off from Exelon
With it delivered yesterday, they'll have three days (today, tomorrow, and Monday) to deliver to customers before EOQ!
That and the tax incentives. Soon to be gone....That is the last major argument from the CNBC TSLAQ crew, "Tesla can't make money on Model 3's."
Sure Tesla can make money on Model 3, but they will never be able to money on their Pickup which is the only market that matters. Also they are drawing dead in autonomy and will get sued to death by all customers who for FSD.That is the last major argument from the CNBC TSLAQ crew, "Tesla can't make money on Model 3's."
You too my friend. Just a different oneThey do.
Should be relatively easy to implement for Tesla with Siri Shortcuts. A couple of days work max. Gotta tweet that to the boss
...
The ironyYou too my friend. Just a different one
Should be relatively easy to implement for Tesla with Siri Shortcuts. A couple of days work max. Gotta tweet that to the boss
I sometimes think people read way too much into these emails. Elon many times has said that he's no businessman and I'm convinced he doesn't care that much about the SP. It's a distraction, it's not his motivation. He won't be scheming to push the SP up by wording and timing an email leak. He ain't got time fo dat and he's an honest man.
We should read this email as what it is - a way to motivate people on the ground and push them towards a specific goal, a nice round record number. Don't mistake it for 100k in the bag.
Remember, buy the rumour, sell the news.
Curious. These emails that seem to pop out just before the end of the quarter. I always wonder how the US SEC looks at these. Could they not be looked at as a CEO trying to influence the stock price? I have no idea how American stock market rules are. Just curious.