Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[wipster]

Smart Summon may be a game changer. It's hard not to notice a car with no driver...

I do think it may be necessary to have an Autopilot like they had in "Airplane"... especially if it has the smile on it's face...

 

[Zaxxon]

vent/close windows

Also Homelink has been moved out of Summon to the main controls, Come to Me added to the main screen, and defrost button added to climate.

 

[Skryll]

Also Homelink has been moved out of Summon to the main controls, Come to Me added to the main screen, and defrost button added to climate.

HL not moved out, can use it from both screens.

 

[RobStark]

 

[dc_h]

Soooooo, who's going to get Neidermeyer's book?

These guys!
Indep. Workers Party on Twitter

 

[Fact Checking]

Summon saves young family getting drenched in a lightning storm - First Summon video in the rain! : teslamotors

 

[Right_Said_Fred]

It’s a pity car buyers in so many countries are still stuck in the past, especially in big countries like Italy and Spain.

UK buyers still have the excuse that Model 3 was hardly available in H1 and those in eastern European countries still cannot buy it (although I’m not expecting miracles in light of the low average wage and lack of incentives).

 

[RobStark]

It’s a pity car buyers in so many countries are still stuck in the past, especially in big countries like Italy and Spain.

Every West European country should be above Hungary.

That Italy is behind Bulgaria is ridiculous.

 

[RobStark]

Nothing says classy like matching mom and daughter tattoos.

Mum And Daughter Get Matching 'Sexy' Tesla Tattoos

 

[sweter]

It’s a pity car buyers in so many countries are still stuck in the past, especially in big countries like Italy and Spain.

UK buyers still have the excuse that Model 3 was hardly available in H1 and those in eastern European countries still cannot buy it (although I’m not expecting miracles in light of the low average wage and lack of incentives).

Some advertising could help... Not that Tesla needs it, but eventually some infomercials or smth would be handy to get the support of general public and increase awareness and fight EV myths.

At least some of the Eastern countries can now order Model 3, but pick up in Early 2020 (sic!) in Tilburg... Oh well.

Good businesses have grown in Poland, there are at least 3 car dealers who import new Teslas from Germany and they've been selling 20-30 each a month. Sure, not much, but quite a lot if there's no official distribution. I imagine similar importers exist in other countries.

 

[Artful Dodger]

So the Factset consensus is Tesla revenues will grow by <1.5% in 2019Q3 vs 2019Q2. Right. Because their historical average QoQ growth is 10.3% but [fud in the blank here].

View attachment 459936

A naive linear estimate based on 10.3% QoQ growth puts Tesla's 2019Q3 Revenue estimate at $7,022,741,000

Yes that's $7B.

To do a proper range estimate and confidence interval would require an ols approach*.

Cheers!

*ols left as an excercise for the reader.

 

[jerry33]

Surprised there is so much pushback on this here. I love it. This one more that the pickup:

The dash is a beautiful work of art to my eyes:

However, I won't be buying.

The leather steering wheel looks out of place though. I would also like a safari roof.

 

[Fact Checking]

A naive linear estimate based on 10.3% QoQ growth puts Tesla's 2019Q3 Revenue estimate at $7,022,741,000

Yes that's $7B.

To do a proper range estimate and confidence interval would require an ols approach*.

Cheers!

*ols left as an excercise for the reader.

Even with 100k deliveries Q3 revenues of $7b is IMHO way too optimistic: @luvb2b is estimating $6,480m in Q3 revenue with 99k deliveries.

We cannot just extrapolate Q2 into Q3, in Q3 there were still a number of ASP headwinds that reduce revenue and gross margins:

• higher SR+ mix in Europe (from ~6% to ~36%),
• price cuts on 7/15, two weeks into Q3 and probably applied to earlier Q3 orders as well,
• still significant pre-Raven Model S/X sales, with even deeper discounts,
• solar price cuts and potential further contraction,
• higher opex due to 30% hiring rate increase, service, delivery network and Supercharger expansion,
• on the cash side GF3 is probably starting to eat into free cash flow - a lot of equipment got installed.

There's a few potential upsides, such as V10 deferred revenue recognition of ~$50m, which would counter some of the gross margin decreases - but won't fundamentally change headline revenue. Q3 profits are still not likely at this point with ~100k deliveries: @luvb2b expects a -$190m GAAP loss and +$300m of FCF.

I think Q3 and Q4 will be OK, but Tesla might delay HW3 activation and most of the deferred revenue recognition to Q1'2020, when there might be a seasonal sales slump like there was in Q1'2019.

 

[KarenRei]

higher SR+ mix in Europe (from ~6% to ~36%)

Probably a significantly lower SR+ mix in the US, due to SR+ backlog being used in up in Q2 and the new price structure promoting upsell.

For what little it's worth, Troy's survey says an ASP rise this quarter.

price cuts on 7/15, two weeks into Q3 and probably applied to earlier Q3 orders as well,

Tesla can contrarily be expected to do what they've done every single quarter, which is significant COGS reduction. It's virtually inherent with increasing volumes.

still significant pre-Raven Model S/X sales, with even deeper discounts,

A switch from pre-Ravens to Ravens (as has been ongoing this quarter) lowers FCF, not net income. Ravens somewhat increase ASP and significantly increase margins.

solar price cuts and potential further contraction,

I expect expansion this quarter, somewhere between "slight" and significant". Seasonal growth plus a new solar push. I also expect storage to continue its QoQ growth and margin improvement.

higher opex due to 30% hiring rate increase, service, delivery network and Supercharger expansion,

I'm not sure what hiring rate increase you're referring to. Stores, service centres, and superchargers are not growing faster than deliveries. Superchargers in particular are in no rush whatsoever (seems to be in somewhat of a deployment lull while waiting for V3)

on the cash side GF3 is probably starting to eat into free cash flow - a lot of equipment got installed.

Extensive internal hardware was already on display in the Q2 letter. It would thus have to at least have already been registered in accounts payable, and thus, would not effect the net income picture this quarter. This quarter at GF3 has been about getting production hardware operational and getting fit right, not about installing said hardware.

 

[Pezpunk]

Even with 100k deliveries Q3 revenues of $7b is IMHO way too optimistic: @luvb2b is estimating $6,480m in Q3 revenue with 99k deliveries.

We cannot just extrapolate Q2 into Q3, in Q3 there were still a number of ASP headwinds that reduce revenue and gross margins:

• higher SR+ mix in Europe (from ~6% to ~36%),
• price cuts on 7/15, two weeks into Q3 and probably applied to earlier Q3 orders as well,
• still significant pre-Raven Model S/X sales, with even deeper discounts,
• solar price cuts and potential further contraction,
• higher opex due to 30% hiring rate increase, service, delivery network and Supercharger expansion,
• on the cash side GF3 is probably starting to eat into free cash flow - a lot of equipment got installed.

There's a few potential upsides, such as V10 deferred revenue recognition of ~$50m, which would counter some of the gross margin decreases - but won't fundamentally change headline revenue. Q3 profits are still not likely at this point with ~100k deliveries: @luvb2b expects a -$190m GAAP loss and +$300m of FCF.

I think Q3 and Q4 will be OK, but Tesla might delay HW3 activation and most of the deferred revenue recognition to Q1'2020, when there might be a seasonal sales slump like there was in Q1'2019.

This. Please don’t get your hopes up for profit this quarter.

 

[Chickenlittle]

Had the same thought, considering buying it soon for this reason. Vaguely reminds me of ~2012 when Netflix dropped bigly and I considered buying but didn't. It recovered incredibly. Nio may well get bailed out.

Would read their q2 cc transcript first. Been involved as investor for the last 7 years in tesla and am incredulous at anyone buying the stock now. I did not see any area of hope in the report. Even the explanation of why the report was delayed was quite lame. Did they suddenly realize hours before the conference that they were in sensitive negotiations to raise funds as they allege? If so, than they must have failed since they could not now discuss it on the report. I mean why delay it to a future date to just say they could not discuss. Government credit decline said to be reason why they are having trouble meeting sales goals but the credits not going up so why will they suddenly sell more. They will increase battery pack size, decrease price in the face of negative margins that are expected to drop even further. They are cutting work force further with declining sales. Wow will they develop new model? Their answer to declining sales is to open smaller 200 sq foot showrooms. How many models fit in a 200 sq foot showroom? Sounds like a kiosk not a store. As to reliability of forecasts they previously stated that battery manufacturer would pay bulk of costs associated with the recall of battery packs but it turns out that nil paid the bulk in the interest of their long term relationship with the battery manufacturer. They need a Hail Mary pass. Better odds with the book maker in my opinion

 

[Unpilot]

Would read their q2 cc transcript first. Been involved as investor for the last 7 years in tesla and am incredulous at anyone buying the stock now. I did not see any area of hope in the report. Even the explanation of why the report was delayed was quite lame. Did they suddenly realize hours before the conference that they were in sensitive negotiations to raise funds as they allege? If so, than they must have failed since they could not now discuss it on the report. I mean why delay it to a future date to just say they could not discuss. Government credit decline said to be reason why they are having trouble meeting sales goals but the credits not going up so why will they suddenly sell more. They will increase battery pack size, decrease price in the face of negative margins that are expected to drop even further. As to dread ability of forecasts they previously stated that battery manufacturer would pay bulk of costs associated with the recall of battery packs but it turns out that nil paid the bulk in the interest of their long term relationship with the battery manufacturer. They need a Hail Mary pass. Better odds with the book maker in my opinion

So your saying they have a chance.....?/

 

[mongo]

Would read their q2 cc transcript first. Been involved as investor for the last 7 years in tesla and am incredulous at anyone buying the stock now. I did not see any area of hope in the report. Even the explanation of why the report was delayed was quite lame. Did they suddenly realize hours before the conference that they were in sensitive negotiations to raise funds as they allege? If so, than they must have failed since they could not now discuss it on the report. I mean why delay it to a future date to just say they could not discuss. Government credit decline said to be reason why they are having trouble meeting sales goals but the credits not going up so why will they suddenly sell more. They will increase battery pack size, decrease price in the face of negative margins that are expected to drop even further. They are cutting work force further with declining sales. Wow will they develop new model? Their answer to declining sales is to open smaller 200 sq foot showrooms. How many models fit in a 200 sq foot showroom? Sounds like a kiosk not a store. As to reliability of forecasts they previously stated that battery manufacturer would pay bulk of costs associated with the recall of battery packs but it turns out that nil paid the bulk in the interest of their long term relationship with the battery manufacturer. They need a Hail Mary pass. Better odds with the book maker in my opinion

This is all in regards to NIO, correct? The first sentence makes me wonder.

 

[dgodfrey]

Amazing timing ...
(apologies for the formatting, on mobile)

Tesla unfairly fought union organizing and must reimburse employees, judge finds

https://finance.yahoo.com/m/42eecc8b-e68d-3dad-bb43-00508dd92c7b/tesla-unfairly-fought-union.html

In what world does saving one from themselves make you liable. If the judge had any common sense, he would make employees reimburse Tesla for saving them union dues to finance corruption, fraud, nepotism,...

 

[pyromatter]