Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[KSilver2000]

No it was the crazy people that read so much into these internal leaks and predict based on their best dreams. It sets us all up for this stupidity where they beat the consensus but that isn't good enough. 97,000 is pretty freaking close to 100k. Production and deliveries continue to grow by leaps. In the end we win.

Then one could say there’s a lot of those people here.

 

[Antares Nebula]

They've never really explained exactly why Q1 is supposed to be bad. I'd love more clarity on that. My operating assumption had been tooling costs for MY hitting, but I really don't know.

My assumption was that because of final tax credit drop off and weak seasonality, like Q1 2018 (of course Q1 2018 also had other issues).

Excluding GF3, if Q4 comes in at ~105k, Q1 will likely come in at less than 95k, maybe even less than 90k. But that will be the last sub 100k quarter for Tesla.

Of course, if GF3 is humming along, could easily be above 100k or even 110. I've been leaving out GF3 from all my estimates until I see what happens here over the next few months. IMO, it's too early to make reasonably accurate predictions based on GF3 data at this point.

 

[larmor]

View attachment 461943

New Shortsville Times headline: One user with perfection complex reparks their tesla 550,000 times in one day....

 

[KSilver2000]

Vincent on Twitter

A picture from my anonymous follower. From the pic we can see at least 8 MIC Model 3 are under trial production inside Tesla Shanghai Gigafactory GF3

Any idea why the two silver ones have blue rear bumpers on?

 

[mongo]

Any idea why the two silver ones have blue rear bumpers on?

I think that is bare aluminum, not silver.
(you should be the expert on that )

Edit: or steel

 

[kengchang]

Any idea why the two silver ones have blue rear bumpers on?

Well, personally I don't think color matching is important during training on installing bumpers...

 

[acoste]

Any idea why the two silver ones have blue rear bumpers on?

The 'silver' cars are not painted. Body and plastics are painted separately.

 

[ggies07]

Hahahaha.

 

[anon]

From my TD Ameritrade newsfeed:

5:34 pm ET
Tesla Beijing Entered Agreement With China Merchants Bank Co. for Unsecured 12-Month Revolving Facility of Up to RMB 5 Billion
Dow Jones

Thanks for pointing this out. It was in today's 8K, but was easily missed due to the deliveries announcement at the same time.

 

[deffu]

No it was the crazy people that read so much into these internal leaks and predict based on their best dreams. It sets us all up for this stupidity where they beat the consensus but that isn't good enough. 97,000 is pretty freaking close to 100k. Production and deliveries continue to grow by leaps. In the end we win.

Musk could have said to hit a new record quarter instead of giving out the 100k no. This is what a normal person/executive would do, leaving some room for error. But this is just his style. We investors need to get used to it, not to put too much weight in it. its market noise that has no significance IMHO.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Looking at the numbers, my biggest disappointment is the production. Thought it would have ramped more than it

Tesla Model 3 production increased by 10.46% from 2019Q2 to 2019Q3. That's EXACTLY inline with there historical CAGR at 48.9%

If you're disappointed in that kind of growth and consistency, then you read too many Tweets.

 

[KarenRei]

Elon Musk on Twitter
"Over 550,000 Tesla Smart Summon uses in first few days!"

It's official: your odds of any one of the negative Smart Summon cases reported in the first few days (what, 1-2 fender benders**, at least one of which was the other car's fault?) happening to you when you use Smart Summon is roughly equivalent to your odds of being struck by lightning in an entire year.

** - Plus those that didn't get reported on social media. But let's get real, the lion's share of the population posts on social media these days.

 

[SoGA Fan Club]

So let me get this straight.

When the estimate was 90,000, the analysts said, demand for Tesla cars is dead.

When Musk tweeted the 100k stupidity, they all went, "oh sheet - demand is actually very good. How can we spin this? I got it, tell everyone, 'well, to sell that many cars, they must have discounted the cars dramatically so gross margins and profit will take a huge hit'".

Now when deliveries were 97,000, doesn't that mean that gross margins and profit will actually be good? Hmmm. I'll be anxiously waiting to read those articles tomorrow telling how great gross margins and profit will be.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

Tesla Model 3 production increased by 10.46% from 2019Q2 to 2019Q3. That's EXACTLY inline with there historical CAGR at 48.9%

If you're disappointed in that kind of growth and consistency, then you read too many Tweets.

Nah I'm guilty of reading too much into that email about increased production back at the beginning of Q3 and the Model 3 supplier stating that they were increasing production of parts. But neither stated when or what goal Tesla had for increasing production so it's my own fault

 

[KarenRei]

Looking at the numbers, my biggest disappointment is the production. Thought it would have ramped more than it

Stupid Tesla. If only they had thought ahead and built a second factory so they could get more production imminently. Maybe in one of their biggest overseas markets. China, maybe. Shanghai would be nice...

 

[Zaxxon]

50-60% more leased vehicles helps with margins too. I wonder how much uptake there was for the solar panels.

*Raises hand*

 

[Antares Nebula]

I think there is a good chance at earnings that tesla will narrow the full year guidance of 360k-400k to something closer to 360k-375k. A lot depends on China ramp and current demand for S&X. I think easy to see 2nd half of year S&X demand being perhaps 10k less than Tesla expected a few months ago.

Agree. Will likely meet total guidance, but not S,X guidance. l recall approx 80k guidance?? Currently at 47k.

 

[KarenRei]

Agree. Will likely meet total guidance, but not S,X guidance. l recall approx 80k guidance?? Currently at 47k.

AFAIK, 80k is max capacity, not guidance.

 

[Carl Raymond]

why are a Russian dictator's thoughts on Greta Thunberg pertinent to anyone at all, let alone to this thread?

It’s naive to think that Gov’t policy on emissions can be divorced from the value of TSLA. Norway has a policy that discourages the purchase of cars with tailpipes, and we have seen that working splendidly to promote EV adoption. It’s not just about dollars, also market education and convenient charging.

China is going hammer and tongs on electrification. GF3 owes its incredible build rate to gov’t policy to accelerate the transition. On Oct 14 we see output, and perhaps a rise in TSLA as people begin to do the sums.

This forum has seen hundreds of posts about advertising. If people feel that ads would add margin, imagine the effect of a carbon price. There are people who feel that a carbon price is a cheat for EVs. The reality is that the ICE market cheat by not covering the cost of their pollution. On an SUV they provide only a big cheap empty tank. It works only with single use fuel. There is no provision of an energy system compatible with a circular economy (or regen).

Russia are laggards, with an economy heavily into oil. Observing what Putin thinks is a simple ‘where are we at in the worst cases’ observation.

Gov’t policy affects TSLA. Greta affects gov’t policy. Greta and Tesla have similar missions. They rise and rise together.

 

[KarenRei]

Those vehicles that they were delivering EOQ were really LR AWD-rich; look at how October is starting: