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My assumption was that because of final tax credit drop off and weak seasonality, like Q1 2018 (of course Q1 2018 also had other issues).

Excluding GF3, if Q4 comes in at ~105k, Q1 will likely come in at less than 95k, maybe even less than 90k. But that will be the last sub 100k quarter for Tesla.

Of course, if GF3 is humming along, could easily be above 100k or even 110. I've been leaving out GF3 from all my estimates until I see what happens here over the next few months. IMO, it's too early to make reasonably accurate predictions based on GF3 data at this point.

Of course there are things Tesla can do in Q1 to increase demand though (if needed).
 
So let me get this straight.

When the estimate was 90,000, the analysts said, demand for Tesla cars is dead.

When Musk tweeted the 100k stupidity, they all went, "oh sheet - demand is actually very good. How can we spin this? I got it, tell everyone, 'well, to sell that many cars, they must have discounted the cars dramatically so gross margins and profit will take a huge hit'".

Now when deliveries were 97,000, doesn't that mean that gross margins and profit will actually be good? Hmmm. I'll be anxiously waiting to read those articles tomorrow telling how great gross margins and profit will be.

Musk didn't tweet 100,000 that was an internal email setting an internal goal.
 
Tesla Model 3 production increased by 10.46% from 2019Q2 to 2019Q3. That's EXACTLY inline with there historical CAGR at 48.9%

If you're disappointed in that kind of growth and consistency, then you read too many Tweets. :rolleyes:

I think everyone is happy with the number - they're disappointed that expectations were unnecessarily raised.

We could have had a win-win - great delivery number and a huge estimate beat. But, we got only one - thanks to Elon.
 
God. Earlier this year, I bought a quarter million dollar's worth of TSLA Jan21. It's down to 5 digits now. I keep waiting for it to recover, but it just doesn't seem to be capable of doing so. I have no idea what to do now. I do plan on rolling it over to Jan22s eventually, but doing so is akin to de-levering, and I don't feel great about de-levering while the SP is low.

I was watching an old youtube video about old people crying about losing a large chunk of their savings during the recession. What's funny is that the highest number given was only 1/3 of what I've lost so far this year.
 
I think everyone is happy with the number - they're disappointed that expectations were unnecessarily raised.

We could have had a win-win - great delivery number and a huge estimate beat. But, we got only one - thanks to Elon.

This is a bad take. Elon sent out an internal e-mail to Tesla employees (an e-mail, by the way, that has not been posted in its entirety and the authenticity of which has actually never been verified). To misrepresent it as a public proclamation is just wrong.
 
Moderators are very biased IME. If the same quote had said "the sooner these young Hispanic women (read AOC) are out of power, the better", the post would be immediately removed, and the poster possibly banned. :rolleyes:
Speaking personally, if the young Hispanic women were actually IN charge we probably wouldn't remove it, because it's an opinion. However, since this posting seems to be trolling the moderators, we'll see.:);):(:mad::confused::D:eek::oops::rolleyes:o_O
 
I don't recall them ever guiding for S/X to be production constrained. Ref?


I recall it being accepted as dogma on this thread and being attacked with religious ferocity if you thought differently.

e.g. we don't need advertising Tesla can sell all they can make
e.g we don't need a refresh Tesla can sell all they can make
 
God. Earlier this year, I bought a quarter million dollar's worth of TSLA Jan21. It's down to 5 digits now. I keep waiting for it to recover, but it just doesn't seem to be capable of doing so. I have no idea what to do now. I do plan on rolling it over to Jan22s eventually, but doing so is akin to de-levering, and I don't feel great about de-levering while the SP is low.

I was watching an old youtube video about old people crying about losing a large chunk of their savings during the recession. What's funny is that the highest number given was only 1/3 of what I've lost so far this year.
Sorry to hear of your loss but you talk of rolling it over so I assume you were in options. I also assume you were in options to magnify your gains but didn’t realize they could magnify your losses? Learn and move on
 
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Q2 - 72531 @13 weeks is 5579/week
Q3 - 79837 @13 weeks is 6141/week (we crossed 6K/week)

GF1 goals are 7K
For Q4 is we have linear growth with 10%, we will be at 87878.

Ships leaving so early into Q4 for EU must mean US did not need the last weeks inventory, and they switched to EU early. ... cheers!!
+Also we beat Q2 numbers even though Q2 had bigger inventory from Q1.