LN1_Casey
Draco dormiens nunquam titillandus
WoW! I would hate to imagine the danger you might pose with a gas nozzle in your hand!
Freak gasoline fight explosion.
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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
- Start date
Freak gasoline fight explosion.
Mars ☰mperor
Member
T☰SLA Mania on Twitter
Earnings call is on October 24 China time, so good news on Q3 earnings call potentially.
Almost there!
From @tesla Global VP Tao Lin:
"Production capacity (at Gigafactory Shanghai ) is controllable by us, and we can say that we are ready. Currently we need product certification and finish the national approval procedures. Once approved, we can begin sales."
The product certification should be approved by October 23 China time.From @tesla Global VP Tao Lin:
"Production capacity (at Gigafactory Shanghai ) is controllable by us, and we can say that we are ready. Currently we need product certification and finish the national approval procedures. Once approved, we can begin sales."
Earnings call is on October 24 China time, so good news on Q3 earnings call potentially.
I purposely only picked a few in the last 24 hours since they are more recent. Didn't even try to post or look for more.
I wasn't expecting any fender benders for such a low speed summon. I assumed that Tesla had much more awareness of its' surroundings than I thought. Especially when Elon said this would blow my mind. Some comments in those topics indicate blindspots which could be a concern if there isn't an update soon?
So yeah, I was expecting a little more progress as an investor.
RobStark
Well-Known Member
We know BMW has ~10 Japanese market share so it has about 882 sales in the "other category" mostly i3s and a few i8.
That leaves Tesla and others with a potential max sales in Japan of ~3500 YTD September.
EV Sales: Japan September 2019
WoW! I would hate to imagine the danger you might pose with a gas nozzle in your hand!
Yeah, I just don't know how to use an autopilot properly. Some of us never learn.
I was afraid you'd say that was a small sample. So maybe there are many close-calls out there.
This mind was blown away, but I'm a geek technologist. Your reaction seem more typical of what I hear in parking lots. It's way too early for it to perform perfectly IMO.
I'm starting to wonder if there is a blindspot myself that eventually gets picked up by sonar for near misses. Does it utilize the pillar cameras facing forward yet (not in my recordings anyway)? If not, maybe we will eventually need AP3 due to framerate constraints on AP2.5. It may use the wide field camera up front, but we don't see that recording either.
I'm not actually sure if this is OT really? Adv Summon acceptance could affect stock price IMO - why I was asking what people were hearing in the parking lots (not just the hiccups which make the news obviously). Public perception is being managed quite well by Waymo (albeit under NDAs + Remote Operators = smoke and mirrors). Tesla just threw it out there, but at least it was to Tesla owners who wanted and paid for it.
Let's put it this way for example. If enough store customers at Walmart (who is suing Tesla on the solar issue) complain, I could see this feature not allowed on their property. Basically the pushback concerns me, so I'm just hoping it learns fast enough now that data is abundant!
Very impressive when it works, but it's basically just a toy that I'm sure will be practical one day. I'd never use it in public and look like an idiot when it fails to connect 8 times in a row, line of sight.
Perhaps it works better with model 3 than X... Today, after many, many summon attempts with varying results, the app finally said my fob battery needed replacement.
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Thats correct.
Yesterday been invited from Neighbors and later the evening he explained his father in Portugal considers to buy a BEV and how he did the TCO analysis.
I brought the resales value up as one of many points missing in his calculation as well as the long life of a BEV but the discussion made one factor very clear to me.
The average Joe discussion BEV does not know, never experiences and feels like it can't be that resales value is higher after a given point in time and cars hold twice the time or 2-3 the milage simply because they have not seen it happen and it is not within their horizon of experience.
Even worse many of those who hear our arguments may call it fan boy chatter and the previous already good argumentation is put in their eyes in twilight because of it.
It will take time for the public opinion to realize. Luckily my neighbor fully agreed and will make that points with his Dad.
j6Lpi429@3j
Closed
The appeal of summon is basically a binary thing. is it the best self-driving capability you can get? if the answer is yes (I think it is), then people who value that feature will buy a tesla over all other cars. If not, then it kinda has no value.
Teslas summon & self driving is not as good as it could be OR as good as they claim it is, but the reality is that its still WAY better than everyone else, so when it comes to customer purchasing decisions, its still a massive win. When you have the best product on the market, the gap between you are the competition isn't *(that* important, as you still get the sale either way.
Fact Checking
Well-Known Member
Another approach is to also (gently) expose them to independent evidence:
- "As luxury residuals fall, some cite Tesla" (AutoNews)
- "Tesla Model S, X Hold Higher Resale Value Than Rivals" (InsideEVs)
- "Tesla Model 3: 2nd Best Resale Among All Cars, Tops Segment & All Classes" (InsideEVs)
- "Tesla and the rise of the Model 3 get acknowledged by US auto dealership exec" (Teslarati)
- "Skyrocketing Tesla Sales Force Mercedes Dealer In Norway To Face A Kodak Moment" (CleanTechnica)
- "Norway gas station replaces fuel pumps with electric car fast chargers" (Teslarati)
And maybe ask them to look at this picture:
And let them guess how well luxury/premium horse carriages purchased in 1903 maintained their resale value in 1913?
I.e. I think the right approach is not just to argue in favor of BEV value (most cars are fundamentally depreciating assets), but to make it clear that premium/luxury ICE cars will lose value and are going to depreciate much faster in the near future, due to spreading diesel and gasoline bans, dropping sales and closing/transforming gas stations, negative 'polluter' social stigma, high fuel and maintenance costs, etc.
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Earlier this summer we replaced my wife's 2013 Ford Explorer with a 2018 Volvo XC90 and our insurance dropped between $50-100 a year.A used Honda Accord costs less to insure than a new Tesla? Yes, every time I bought a new car my insurance rates went up. That's because the replacement cost of a used car is a lot lower.
If you want low insurance rates, drive a car that's worth less.
After reading recent posts in this thread, my continuous lifelong frustration with people who can't tell the difference between anecdotes and statistics continues.
This is, BTW, not to say that there's obviously not improvements to be made. It's just the same general reminder I find myself having to give numerous times every single year of my life to people who can't tell the difference between statistics and anecdotes. You need to make sure that you have a equally good grasp of both the numerator and the denominator.
For example, personally comparing one's own summon experience is perfectly fine, as you have a good sense of how many times you summoned and the quality of each summon. Adding in your friends (all friends who've tried Smart Summon, not just those with issues, who are more likely to talk about them!) "summary experience" is usually also fine, as they'll generally offer a proper description of the ratio of good to bad cases they've experienced. But just grabbing random people's bad experiences off the net? That just doesn't remotely give a proper impression of the rate. Unless your rate standard is "zero incidence, among millions of cases".
- 550k Smart Summons in the first "couple days"
- It's now weeks later - how big do you think that denominator is?
- It's an age of social media - people post almost everything to Twitter, Facebook, Instagram, Youtube, forums, etc. Some won't be, but a large portion (or more likely, majority) will be. Especially the most serious cases.
- Shorts search them out and gather them up to try to make Tesla look bad. They'll miss some fraction, but they're pretty adept at finding them.
- Most weren't in the first "couple days", and thus shouldn't be compared to 550k total summons.
- Half weren't at parking lots - they were at homes - and thus shouldn't be compared toward parking lot accident statistics
- While there was the one not-at-fault parking lot accident and two garage scrapes, most weren't accidents at all. Including things like:
- Car drove up onto low curb
- Car summoned onto grass, and drove to where it was summoned
- Car brakes to avoid accident - unclear as to whether it was the car or the person with the app who caused the braking
- Car just acting weird - not even a risk of an accident
This is, BTW, not to say that there's obviously not improvements to be made. It's just the same general reminder I find myself having to give numerous times every single year of my life to people who can't tell the difference between statistics and anecdotes. You need to make sure that you have a equally good grasp of both the numerator and the denominator.
For example, personally comparing one's own summon experience is perfectly fine, as you have a good sense of how many times you summoned and the quality of each summon. Adding in your friends (all friends who've tried Smart Summon, not just those with issues, who are more likely to talk about them!) "summary experience" is usually also fine, as they'll generally offer a proper description of the ratio of good to bad cases they've experienced. But just grabbing random people's bad experiences off the net? That just doesn't remotely give a proper impression of the rate. Unless your rate standard is "zero incidence, among millions of cases".
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Since we are sharing anecdotal stories pre-market open...
One of my best friends didn`t even want a car until recently (lives in the downtown), now has a used ICE but has heard enough about EVs from me that he is now very seriously considering one and keeps asking me on his options.
He had a few concerns we had to talk about over this past weekend, but one thing was really surprising to me: he was really concerned about depreciation. He had been reading how all these OEMs now getting in the game and was concerned current BEVs will depreciate as the new ones with more range, better charging and cheaper price will flood the market. I think I have managed to explain how it`s going to be a looong time until BEV production catches up with demand and that more BEVs on the road will also generate even more demand. I also explained how a used ICE may actually be in trouble in a few years as many may see the writing on the wall and will prefer saving up for an EV even if it is a financial stretch. He didn`t even think about it that way.
Fact Checking
Well-Known Member
China is the best guess I have: he usually signs off Twitter when in China, and with GF3 nearing its first production runs it's also a good place for a CEO to be.
Pezpunk
Active Member
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