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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

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For whatever reason, unlike "stealerships," Tesla does not view used vehicles as a profit opportunity.

The reason is pretty clear to me. Selling used ICE cars is not their core mission and it detracts from designing manufacturing and delivering the best cars the planet has ever seen.

Also, do you really want to make your technicians deal with oil contaminated with combustion by-products and gasoline that is contaminated, well, because it's gasoline? ;)
 
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Let's keep it strictly platonic folks!

Bloomberg - Are you a robot?
Tesla Is No Niche Automaker Anymore, Volkswagen’s CEO Says

"There appears to be a budding bromance between the CEOs of Volkswagen AG, the world’s largest automaker, and Tesla Inc., the electric-car company suddenly back on the ascent.

At an event where VW was presenting the new Golf hatchback late Thursday, Chief Executive Officer Herbert Diess quibbled with reporters who suggested Tesla is in trouble because it’s too small."
 
Let's keep it strictly platonic folks!

Bloomberg - Are you a robot?
Tesla Is No Niche Automaker Anymore, Volkswagen’s CEO Says

"There appears to be a budding bromance between the CEOs of Volkswagen AG, the world’s largest automaker, and Tesla Inc., the electric-car company suddenly back on the ascent.

At an event where VW was presenting the new Golf hatchback late Thursday, Chief Executive Officer Herbert Diess quibbled with reporters who suggested Tesla is in trouble because it’s too small."

This is a company I'd be okay with Tesla selling motors and batteries to. Sure, they could still be deceptive, but not nearly as pollutive :D
 
I find the fraud stuff baffling. I mean do they think every Model 3 on the road is just a Mazda 3 with a T logo stuck on?
Quite obviously not. /s

TM3-Civic-Rear.png
 
Congratulations to everyone who held on and especially those that bought during the darkest days! This is a small victory for us, but Tesla still has work to do.

After looking at the Q3 update I realized they improved margins on service to from -22.8% to -21.7%, but still lost ~$119 million in that area, I'm trying to figure out why Tesla is losing so much in service, and what is stopping them from reversing that.

I thought in most dealerships service is a major profit driver. What is Tesla doing differently that is costing it so much money?

Is it simply the pricing of the parts? Tesla has the parts priced so low that they are losing money when you add everything else in?

Can they price the parts higher without some backlash if that is the issue? I assume there's some reason Tesla has elected not to increase parts pricing.

Cheers!
-Mike
At one point Elon intended that service would be profit neutral. I think I recall him stating something like Why would you buy a car from me that you have to pay me to fix. Our 2018 LR M3 has never been in for service with 50 K except for an early tire rotation at no charge.. I look for EM to make every effort to avoid service and even then to break even on that effort. Given that he still has not handled service well as we all have discussed in depth.
 
I doubled my position at $184 shortly after it bottomed. I cannot pass up a good deal like that! I think I was actually drooling on my keyboard when I hit the "buy" button:

I was like that on the way down around 280. By the time it got to 180, not so much. I ran out of money already

How did you know that was the last stop?

I think you are trivializing the pain many of us endured
 
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The anti Tesla company bias is sometimes hard to figure out. I sort of put it down to a very emotional response to people who are so pro-Tesla, kind of like some sort of college rivalry.

However, according to some basic research, the market cap of some car companies is: VW 97B, Daimler 60B, GM 52B, Honda 48B, Tesla 45B, Ford 36B.

Sales, in cars, for those companies in 2018 are VW 10.83M, GM 8.3m, Honda 4.9M, Tesla 240k, Ford 5.3M

So, putting aside the emotions, isn't the argument that, if market cap is a basic measure of value, that Tesla's stock price already has a premium due to the discrepancy between its sales and market cap.

I can't find a comparable small car company that I recognize. The premium may be justified, but it looks like its there.

Can we compare Tesla to GM without including GM’s dealers? There are around 5,000 Chevy dealers in the US.

Each one has million$ invested in land, sales centers, repair shops, and inventory.

How many billion would that add to GM’s valuation?
 
Any thoughts on non recurring / one time gains? Tslaq crowd is harping on one time gains. To me it seems like a lot of one time costs are behind them, write down of non raven, restructuring costs In q1 and q2, declines warranty costs and builds improve. Benefits of scale are starting to build and costs for software R&D are declining per unit that should help margin momentum above 25% in Q4.

It really depends on the additional detail provided in the 10Q, but here's a couple SWAGs:

One possibility could be "Net changes in liability for pre-existing warranties, including expirations and foreign exchange impact" Tesla has a lot of discretion of how much it reserves for warranty each quarter and how it decides to adjust prior period reserves (at least until the audited annual report).

I don't follow FX closely, but Other Income/(Expense), Net added $85 million to Net Income for 3Q19--my impression is the strength of the USD is working in the opposite direction for 4Q19 (similar to 2Q19).

More cars delivered than produced during 3Q19 ( 1,031 vehicles net), but Inventory on the Balance Sheet increased by $201MM and Services and Other Revenue decreased by $57 MM. Some of it could be an increase in Finished Goods for "Previously-Owned Vehicles" [i.e defer the losses for a quarter by not liquidating those vehicles] or more likely just an increase in Raw Materials and WIP as volumes increase and GF-3 begins production.

The quarterly $317MM reduction in SG&A is impressive, and it will be interesting to see what detail is provided in the 10Q as to how it was achieved. (I suspect part of it was final elimination of the vestige of SCTY's sales infrastructure--but the new business/marketing plan for selling solar panels and solar tiles is mystifying--3 sizes fit all doesn't cut it for anyone who computes efficiencies, pay back periods, present value etc.)

No Depreciation for GF-3 is in the 3Q19 numbers (nor really much SG&A scale up in China), It will start appearing in 4Q19. Why do you think GM% will increase from ~20% (ex credits) to 25% in three months?

CARB seems to be a bit late in publishing the FY2018 ZEV Credit report
 
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On the other hand, If someone was looking at a potential takeover offer, it would make sense to do this before Shanghai, Model Y & solar roof are delivering in volume and leading to big jumps in net income (and one would think big gains in company value). I think the window for a “cheap” takeover of Tesla is rapidly closing (be it for a competitor, a new entrant, or Elon & friends themselves). 6-9 months left probably to get the company for under $100 Billion offer price. 12 months max.

Nobody is going to be taking over Tesla. Elon Musk would not approve of that and an unfriendly offer doesn't stand a chance unless they convince shareholders they are not just buying it to snuff it out and are willing to pay a huge premium. Tesla without Musk is not worth much. Not gonna happen.
 
Schumer proposes $462 billion car swap - gas for electric

WASHINGTON (AP) — Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer is moving Democrats’ climate talk to where the rubber meets the road, proposing a $462 billion trade-in program to get millions of Americans out of climate-damaging gas vehicles and into electric or hybrid cars over the next decade.

Schumer’s rebate proposal late Thursday joins a mix of trillion- and multitrillion-dollar programs that Democratic presidential candidates have outlined to urgently cut oil, gas and coal emissions, as climate change weighs as an issue in the 2020 campaigns.

Schumer said the “proposal to bring clean cars to all of America” would be a key part of climate legislation by Senate Democrats. The injection of government-supported spending for electric cars “could position the U.S. to lead the world in clean auto manufacturing,” he said.

The New York Democrat’s plan would give American car buyers thousands of dollars each to trade in gas-burning cars for U.S.-assembled electric, hybrid or hydrogen cell cars. Lower-income households, and buyers of cars with American-made parts, would get extra credits.

About $45 billion would go to boost availability of charging stations and other electric car infrastructure. And $17 billion would help automakers increase their production of electric cars, batteries and parts.
 
Tesla pickup will outsell Bollinger ~200:1

So you agree with me, Bollinger will never amount to anything worth discussing further. ;)

And just so you know, it's absolutely false that the occupants in a vehicle like the Bollinger will fare well when it crashes into an immovable object. Weight is actually a negative when you hit a solid tree or rock wall and the lack of airbags is a real danger. Even a side impact by another truck running a red light could kill you much easier than in a small car with airbags like the Model 3 or a regular pickup with airbags.