Yeah, but the knowns now make TSLA sooo much cheaper at $340. 20% margins on 3 with lowered price and almost 0 tax credit, GF3 day/hours to birth 3s, FSD on track for feature compete in 2019, SS out and in the wild (no more coming next month jokes), a profit with current conditions, AND THOSE FREAKIN SOLAR TILES at a price to match normal roof + ugly solar and NOBODY, NOBODY, NOBODY else making them.
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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
- Start date
Swampgator
Active Member
Tesla is experiencing a serious supply issue due to increased demand. Zero Model 3's new or used in inventory within 200 miles of Atlanta and Fort Myers, Fl. S and X you can find, but zero Model 3. If the factory is still cranking out 6000+ Model 3 per week, they are obviously sending most overseas now. But they are starving the US market and creating a huge backlog before the tax credit finally ends in the US. Q4 is going to be most interesting.
Europe is totally starved too. And China gets no more SRs beyond what they've already sent until GF3 starts selling. And the new non-European markets from last quarter (Australia, New Zealand, Taiwan, Japan), which didn't finish their backlogs, are also waiting. And there's new markets launching this quarter, like South Korea.
There's a serious #DemandProblem. And that is that demand is way too high.
I think stuff like this is hilarious and shows how short memories are now. Bill Gates was a notorious douchebag while he was still CEO of Microsoft. The "Bill Meeting" was and is legendary at that company because his favorite pastime was bullying his employees until they were publicly in tears. It's strange how quickly people have forgot.
JusRelax
Active Member
Based on ev-cpo.com, there is ONE new inventory model 3 in USA... and it's in Honolulu.
StealthP3D
Well-Known Member
I agree 100%. The report devastated every short thesis out there.
Tesla is Google in 2005 when it was just search. Tesla 2019 is just auto.
Tesla 2021 = RT, Energy, Auto
Tesla 2025 = Energy, RT, X, Y, Z, Auto
The Accountant
Active Member
Wow - that's incredible. I just checked the website for my local area and see that there are no Model 3s. It shows 2 S's and 1 X within 200 miles. The delivery estimate for the Model 3 is 5-9 weeks.
StealthP3D
Well-Known Member
GBleck
Member
He released mosquitoes into a room full of reporters at a malaria event after he retired.
Nocturnal in 2030 - retires early and people say I'm having a mid life crisis in my bright red space ex roadster.
And I'm sure people are still whining that their cars are worth so much less now because of the price changes.
(while ignoring the huge tax credit they received)They seems sell the show room M3? There are a few used with 300 or so miles ...
Q3 was good Q4 should be good/great.
What is everyone’s opinion for Q1 though? Will China be cranking out new cars to help offset for seasonality?
StealthP3D
Well-Known Member
Those were the years I held MSFT until it was over 90% of my portfolio. I love smart and demanding leaders who want perfection!
Correction: I love *investing* in them!
I'm not planning on China being ramped enough to make up for it. Perhaps early Model Y sales will though. My real hope is that they even out deliveries/sales over the next few quarters so that they can manage a small loss or tiny profit.
Europe is totally starved too. And China gets no more SRs beyond what they've already sent until GF3 starts selling. And the new non-European markets from last quarter (Australia, New Zealand, Taiwan, Japan), which didn't finish their backlogs, are also waiting. And there's new markets launching this quarter, like South Korea.
There's a serious #DemandProblem. And that is that demand is way too high.
I think a lot of Model 3's are on its way to the Netherlands, they put a special 'bijtelling'-page online: Bijtelling and while you first had to order before 7/14-October to get one in 2019, now they say they're still available. The tax on a Model 3 will increase with ~6.5k€ (over 5 years) from 2020 so they will sell every M3 they can deliver before EOY. And by delivery I mean unload them in Amsterdam harbour (Google Maps), then let the customers pick them up
Cult Member
Born on the 4th of July
Looks like TSLA is controlled by EU -> idle is exact on EUR 300 at the moment.
I’m mostly curious when I’ll see Tesla profitable on a year to year basis. That may be the best way to shut up the shorts.
You will still have valuation arguments then though of course.
The Accountant
Active Member
As one member computed in a post several days ago, Tesla may enter Q1 2020 with over 30k in back-orders. It may not be a profitable quarter but it won't be a disaster and could possibly be FCF positive.
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