Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Thekiwi]

The Polestar 2 that is equivalent to "Performance" will start at $63k then there is an upgraded drivetrain package equivalent to "Ludicrous" will be an extra ~$5k.

The base Polestar 2 will be about ~$43k and come with a hatchback. It will likely have less space and not a third row but the hatch makes it closer to $39k Model Y.

Presumably it will eligible for the $7.5k US tax credit as well.

I cant see the US tax credit staying as it is in the scenario where the US EV vendors don’t get it while foreign EV vendors selling into the US do. Either the 200k vehicle cap disappears (good for Tesla) or the tax credit disappears entirely (which would be better for Tesla than current situation)

 

[LN1_Casey]

Insideevs Tesla October US sales should be released tomorrow morning. It should give TSLA a boost given all the recent kooky talk about declining US sales.

Actually, I'm uncertain that the Shorties will be flummoxed by the numbers. The first month or two in a Q are largely geared towards foreign sales since shipping take so long, so the US Sale market may actually help that negative narrative.

Admittedly, as Kengchang said, and from my own stalking of Tesla.com, the new, inventory market for all Tesla's are all but gone. There is just one, lonely P100DL Model X left I found in Suffolk. They didn't even give the option of shipping somewhat close cars. I only checked three major Zips within 200; Norfolk, San Jose, and San Antonio, but the point remains.

 

[Thekiwi]

Insideevs Tesla October US sales should be released tomorrow morning. It should give TSLA a boost given all the recent kooky talk about declining US sales.

I wouldn’t get too excited considering most October production probably went onto ships for international destinations.

 

[LN1_Casey]

Lots of permits today, looks like BIW5 is making good progress if Fire suppression system is being setup.
View attachment 471963

I'm personally very curious as to when they'll start building out GF1 again. I know GF1 is only 1/3rd of what it's supposed to be--so when? They already need the space because even the 35GWhr wouldn't be enough to slake the thirst of Models S, 3, X, Y, Semi, and Truck and Powerwalls/Megapacks. US construction takes a lot longer than Chinese as evidenced by GF3, so they'd be bound to take a year or two for any major expansion.

 

[kengchang]

I'm personally very curious as to when they'll start building out GF1 again. I know GF1 is only 1/3rd of what it's supposed to be--so when? They already need the space because even the 35GWhr wouldn't be enough to slake the thirst of Models S, 3, X, Y, Semi, and Truck and Powerwalls/Megapacks. US construction takes a lot longer than Chinese as evidenced by GF3, so they'd be bound to take a year or two for any major expansion.

Labor/Housing shortage are big problem in Reno right now, only time will solve that problem

 

[MC3OZ]

I'm personally very curious as to when they'll start building out GF1 again. I know GF1 is only 1/3rd of what it's supposed to be--so when? They already need the space because even the 35GWhr wouldn't be enough to slake the thirst of Models S, 3, X, Y, Semi, and Truck and Powerwalls/Megapacks. US construction takes a lot longer than Chinese as evidenced by GF3, so they'd be bound to take a year or two for any major expansion.

They may end up making packs elsewhere...

The factory will eventually expand, but there is a short term issue with water supplies, which limits construction, which limits the work force.

If newer pack types don't need drying ovens for the cells, then perhaps there is less need to locate all pack production in a single factory.

All the work force issues are eventually solvable, but it may take time.. With Tesla moving into the area, other businesses also set up. Last I heard there was a general shortage of housing.. or at least some limit on the available housing...and new construction needed water entitlements.

 

[Right_Said_Fred]

All climate change posts have moved to the existing Climate Change Update Investor Thread. Let's keep this thread on topic (Tesla, EVs, TSLA investing).

Edit: and some more have gone there Mods are allergic to being ignored, so any further posts on climate change in this thread will simply be deleted.

 

[Antares Nebula]

Given FCA chose to comment at all, i think it is likely they have at least discussed a EV Powertrain supply deal with Tesla. Perhaps they bought credits for 2019-2021 and then laid out initial plans to start buying EV Powertrains from Tesla instead in 2022. This would give Tesla time to ramp up battery and powertrain production.

I think a deal like this would be very positive for Tesla. Increased economies of scale can reduce capex and production costs for their own products.
I'm sure Tesla are confident in maintaining enough cost and technology lead even if they supply competitors with EV Powertrains. Tesla will have 1) A price advantage equal to their EV Powertrain gross profit. 2) Dealership vertical integration and online sales cost advantage. 3) Non EV-Powertrain innovation advantage. 4) Autonomous features and possibly Robotaxi advantage. 5) Entertainment and OS software advantage. 6) Safety advantage (structural design for safety). 7) Car durability advantage (more than just the powertrain designed for 1 million miles, plus they probably won't sell 1 million mile battery chemistry anyway). 8) Ability for rapid and continuous improvement of the car design, production process or software with its agile development processes.

The hardest bit of any deal would be to convince any potential customer that Tesla will not just cut supply and prioritise internal production whenever it meets any supply/production bottlenecks.

I think this is extremely unlikely. First, Tesla is very likely to be supply constrained here. Tesla is talking about growing to sell 20M units globally. Any expansion in capacity is going to be towards Tesla products.

Second, Elon and Tesla (similar to Apple) just doesn't seem like the kind of company to share their tech. Yes opensource and patents, but not make actual products for competitors. They're going to leverage all their vertical integration and proprietary tech to increase their sales as much as possible rather than help competitors. Like with Apple and Steve Jobs, Tesla and Elon are not going to allow "clones", like in the PC Wintel and Android world. If you want any of that Tesla goodness, you're gonna have to buy a Tesla. I think he was even asked this question on a CC, and Elon just seemed to shrug it off. Their EV powertrain is a significant part of their competitive advantage and I don't think they would sell that to competitors.

What Elon wants to see is other OEMs doing what he is doing. Building GFs and committing to battery and EV powertrain R&D and manufacturing. He doesn't want them coming to him for supply.

 

[Antares Nebula]

Another point re selling skateboards to other OEMs. Tesla components (like Apple) are designed to work together. Hardware and software in harmony (as well as other hardware to hardware harmony). What happens if there is some malfunction or issue with an OEM skateboard Tesla? Who's fault is it? Tesla's, the OEMs?

This is exactly the kind of problems that occur in the Wintel and Android world. The hardware maker blames the software company (Windows or Android), and the software company blames the hardware maker. This is why I (and many others) buy Apple. If there is a problem, we go straight to Apple. If there is an issue, Apple will issue a software update or recall (hardware update).

How many times have we also seen this with Tesla? And there are bound to be issues. Is Tesla then also to issue software fixes to other OEMs? And will it work properly if all the OEM hardware and software are not identical to Tesla's? No. Like Apple, Tesla has the right idea with a closed proprietary system. You trade an open platform (like Wintel or Android) for a closed one, but gain significant increase in quality and reliability (also compare Waymo vs Tesla in this regard).

This is why Steve Jobs shut down the nascent Apple clone program in his second coming to Apple. Any clone malfunctions or issues would just give Apple a bad rap. Moreover, Apple would have to constantly work with third party hardware companies to tweak their software -- a headache that distracts from making a best of class unified system. Same thing will happen with Tesla. Rather, Jobs (like Musk) believes in best of class engineering to create the best hardware and software combo to work in near perfect harmony, rather than make second rate components for others to mish mash together to give a less than optimal user experience.

 

[electracity]

Labor/Housing shortage are big problem in Reno right now, only time will solve that problem

This situation is probably what killed the idea of building cars in Reno. The car business would compete with the battery and energy business for manufacturing employees.

Tesla will need to build a plant in the U.S. southeast. But I'm sure they are considering what they can export from China to North America to ramp production faster. One possibility is even making low end gen 3 cars in China for export to North America until manufacturing can be ramped up in the U.S.

There is likely no scenario where Fremont can meet robust ongoing demand in North America. Taking just a modest fraction of RAV4 sales maxes out Fremont. The only place Tesla can rapidly grow production is China. Too bad Tesla wasn't in a position to buy the very large Rivian plant in Illinois.

 

[Silent Ludicrosy]

FSD is now 7k.

 

[Fact Checking]

Tesla will need to build a plant in the U.S. southeast.

Not necessarily: an autonomous Semi Truck can cross from California to Florida (or NY) within about ~48 hours, and it would be legal even with current regulations with two safety drivers.

I think GF1 will be expanded, but only once they are at higher automation levels. That means they could expand GF1 capacity much faster than their workforce there.

 

[NicoV]

FSD is now 7k.

6400 euro in Europe. Can’t remember if this is an increase or not.

 

[LN1_Casey]

Not necessarily: an autonomous Semi Truck can cross from California to Florida (or NY) within about ~48 hours, and it would be legal even with current regulations with two safety drivers.

I think GF1 will be expanded, but only once they are at higher automation levels. That means they could expand GF1 capacity much faster than their workforce there.

I agree and disagree with the last bit. Undoubtedly, there will be a higher level of automation with the batteries, but building such a large addition to the standing structure will require a large force no matter how you slice it. And if it takes two or three years, the need for housing/schools/whatever else would be a requirement, even if the manning at GF1 stays the same as current levels.

 

[Dan Detweiler]

I just noticed that free unlimited Supercharging comes with all Model S and Model X orders on the Tesla site. Is this new or has this been the case for a while?

Dan

 

[electracity]

Not necessarily: an autonomous Semi Truck can cross from California to Florida (or NY) within about ~48 hours, and it would be legal even with current regulations with two safety drivers.

I think GF1 will be expanded, but only once they are at higher automation levels. That means they could expand GF1 capacity much faster than their workforce there.

I'm thinking the SE due to labor cost and availability. Same reason many auto manufacturers have built plants in that region.

The problem with Reno is not just the size of the city, but that the region is largely void of people. New factories in the western world are now usually built in semi-rural areas but in regions with significant population. The high desert of Nevada does not support agriculture so there are not many reasons for people to settle the region in significant numbers.

Normal Illinois is 1/5 the size of Reno but I doubt Rivian will have problems staffing manufacturing employees.

 

[Huskyf]

6400 euro in Europe. Can’t remember if this is an increase or not.

No it's the old price for Europe because we don't have automatic change lane with no confirmation and we don't have Smart Summon. Elon said no price update for Europe because featurs not complete.

 

[RobbyJ]

6400 euro in Europe. Can’t remember if this is an increase or not.

I'm not sure what the price was before, but didn't Elon say the price would only increase in areas where FSD features were allowed? So not Europe unfortunately...

 

[Dan Detweiler]

Just an FYI. If you edit a current order that had FSD originally (mine is a Model Y order), regardless of what you change, your price goes up $1,000 to reflect the change in FSD prices. Needless to say, I thought twice about making that color change!

Dan

 

[LN1_Casey]

I just noticed that free unlimited Supercharging comes with all Model S and Model X orders on the Tesla site. Is this new or has this been the case for a while?

Dan

It's been there since I think before Q3 close. Late August/Early September time frame it became standard for all Model S and X?

Probably to give a reason for the people who could afford a Model S or X to purchase that rather than the 3 or Y, since the latters was getting a lot of goodies the formers was not, while the formers cost significantly more.