Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[woodisgood]

Depends on incentives.
Don't think incentives will be close to China's.

China was a really good deal.

Maybe I'm being naive and I certainly don't know the ins and outs of the relationship of the German gov't with the German auto companies, but it's difficult to imagine Germany being quite as inviting as China.

There has to be something in it for the German automakers.

 

[jeewee3000]

Maybe I'm being naive and I certainly don't know the ins and outs of the relationship of the German gov't with the German auto companies, but it's difficult to imagine Germany being quite as inviting as China.

There has to be something in it for the German automakers.

The EU does have very strong rules against market manipulation, and Germany is one of the greatest EU supporters.

So their national interests are conflicting with their international ones. Allowing Tesla to compete fairly in the European Union and having the extra jobs created should be a no brainer for Germany.

 

[StealthP3D]

Why do you take my remarks as an 'advice'? I'm simply stating what I see as human psychology: getting out of a stock the moment it is possible to do so without a loss, or holding on to it because you want something in return for your year long 'suffering'. That these are not the smartest motives for investment decisions is irrelevant. This is simply how some people think and therefore a factor when trying to predict what investors will do once we reach ATH again (which is what I was trying to do in my post).

Second: you make it sound as if I am talking about my own stock position. I am not. I am long 1000 shares with an average price of $240 and will let it run for a long time.

No, apologies if you took it that way. When I used the word "you" it was only in the general sense of the word "you". It's just that your comment reminded me that people think that way and I was trying to be helpful by pointing it out (because it's so common and ingrained in human psyche and is so damaging to portfolio performance). Nothing directed at you, so apologies for making it sound that way.

 

[woodisgood]

No, apologies if you took it that way. When I used the word "you" it was only in the general sense of the word "you". It's just that your comment reminded me that people think that way and I was trying to be helpful by pointing it out (because it's so common and ingrained in human psyche and is so damaging to portfolio performance). Nothing directed at you, so apologies for making it sound that way.

Personal investment robots can't be that far away can they?

"WHY DID YOU SELL ALL MY TSLA YOU NITWIT ROBOT?!!"

"So I could buy it all myself, Dave."

 

[mongo]

No, apologies if you took it that way. When I used the word "you" it was only in the general sense of the word "you". It's just that your comment reminded me that people think that way and I was trying to be helpful by pointing it out (because it's so common and ingrained in human psyche and is so damaging to portfolio performance). Nothing directed at you, so apologies for making it sound that way.

 

[humbaba]

relative the mobileeye advert posted earlier:

although the clips are obviously cherry picked it looks pretty good and I think that I saw a 40s stretch without interruption. Given the situations they showed I was somewhat impressed. Naturally we are only shown the best examples.

It seemed to me that the mapping of vehicles was more stable than Tesla and the driving more confident. However, at ~1:00 they focus on the display and you can see a vehicle approaching from the lot on the left. There's only one problem: that lot was empty except for a couple of stationary buses. Also, the confidence may be illusory -- given the cherry picking it isn't clear that Tesla couldn't achieve the same just be dialing up the aggression. For example, it uses the oncoming lane to go around a bus. Tesla won't do that because it is strict about adhering to a lane and won't drive into oncoming traffic.

Of course, Tesla is releasing Autopilot to arbitrary end users rather than being limited to selected safety drivers so their caution makes sense.

I would've liked to see the vehicle's exterior: I'm curious where/how they have the cameras mounted. I'm also curious about the power draw of their system (in particular, Tesla has optimized HW3 for power consumption while Nvidia's hardware has a healthy appetite). But it looks like they are well on their way to being a provider to other car manufacturers who want FSD.

I like that they emphasize it is a camera-based system without lidar. They give a good impression of the capabilities which advances the perception of camera-based driving systems as being capable. So it both normalizes FSD and camera-based systems. I think this amounts to positive advertising for Tesla's FSD offering.

 

[ev-enthusiast]

what components do they make for Tesla?

This contract is about "Cockpitquertträger". This is the part in the front of the cabin that spans from driver to passenger side. Instrument panel could be a good translation.

 

[HG Wells]

Again we approach 3fiddy

 

[Right_Said_Fred]

No, apologies if you took it that way. When I used the word "you" it was only in the general sense of the word "you". It's just that your comment reminded me that people think that way and I was trying to be helpful by pointing it out (because it's so common and ingrained in human psyche and is so damaging to portfolio performance). Nothing directed at you, so apologies for making it sound that way.

No problem at all. Me being a non-native speaker doesn't help.

 

[KarenRei]

Personal investment robots can't be that far away can they?

"WHY DID YOU SELL ALL MY TSLA YOU NITWIT ROBOT?!!"

 

[Fact Checking]

I'm fairly sure - but again, please correct me if I'm wrong - that what actually makes market makers increase or decrease the move of the market is gamma, not OI in either puts or calls - ie. whether MMs have to hedge puts or calls, the magnitude of their dynamic hedging is about the same in either direction.

The MMs already bought the shares to do the initial delta hedging.

Consider this:

What happens if the SP goes down by $5? The delta of all every call they're short is lower, so they have to sell some shares to remain delta neutral. Further, the puts now have a bigger negative delta, which has the same effect, they have to sell shares.

What happens if the SP goes *up* by $5? More or less the same thing, but in reverse. The call delta is higher so they need to buy more share, the put delta is less negative so they have to buy more shares.

This is the effect of the MMs being short gamma - they will amplify price movements by dynamically hedging. If they had long gamma (ie. people wrote options instead of buying them), which basically only happens in indices and ETNs and volatility products and such, they would instead have to do the opposite and would thus dampen the price movement.

This is only true if delta-hedging is instantaneous and treats all price levels the same, which it almost certainly doesn't, because transaction costs would be eating up their earned premium very quickly:

• There's very likely intraday inventory lag.
• Breaching new price levels, with weeks or months old highs on the upside is a stronger indicator to increase TSLA inventory than modest pullbacks from recent highs to reduce it.

I.e. inventory management by market makers probably resembles a trend following momentum trader - i.e. right now upside inventory adjustment is probably significantly stronger than downside adjustments.

 

[dc_h]

Which would still cap world production at 780,000 cars? Thought they should exceed that next year but that's obviously a chokepoint.

1st car company to produce and sell a million EVs.

15,000 is goal for GF1. Shanghai is due to start battery and drive unit production in Q1 2020. Then those batteries and added drive units can be used for Model Y.

 

[jeewee3000]

No problem at all. Me being a non-native speaker doesn't help.

Last week a study came out that showed the Dutch are the best non-native English speakers in the world, so you should be OK .

For those intrested (and I'm not taking this OT post any further, it just came up):

English is the most widely spoken language in the world, but it is worth knowing that the vast majority of speakers are not “native.” Of the roughly 1.5 billion people in the world who speak English, over 1.1 billion speak it as a second language.

Fourteen countries were placed in the “very high” category: The Netherlands (No. 1), Sweden, Norway, Denmark, Singapore, South Africa, Finland, Austria, Luxembourg, Germany, Poland, Portugal, Belgium and Croatia (No. 14).

The country with the lowest English proficiency is Libya, followed by Kyrgyzstan, Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Ivory Coast, and Uzbekistan.

Full article here.

 

[Fact Checking]

Is this b/c Morten hyping something?
Morten Grove on Twitter

Kinda late for premarket.

And it appears he 100% knows something relevant:

"My lips are sealed! I've slapped an NDA on myself, which I'm partially breaking everytime I post about this."​

GF4 announcement imminent?

 

[Nocturnal]

A newer guy at work heard that I was a big Tesla guy and came over to chat. He picked up a P3 stealth that same night. He is very familiar with Teslas from his friend's cars but said owning/driving yourself is night and day and now he really gets it. I firmly believe that Tesla is close to just exploding into critical mass where we have enough happy customers spreading the word that the hesitation against going electric just evaporates. I suspect this happens when the Y starts being a common sight and definitely by the time the truck begins to roll out.

This contract is about "Cockpitquertträger". This is the part in the front of the cabin that spans from driver to passenger side. Instrument panel could be a good translation.

OT, but I've always enjoyed the German compound words.

My favorite example is Hospital and Ambulance. Literally sick wagon and sick house.

Kranken = sick
Haus and Wagon should be obvious.
Ambulance = Krankenwagon
Hospital = Krankenhaus​

 

[PaulRocket]

Sitting in the hotel. Just held the door open for Jerome (Guillen). Still waiting for Elon

 

[Fact Checking]

Rumor in German press says German car supplier Elring Klinger recieved a new major order for Model Y parts supply for Model Y production in Fremont (link).
Elring Klinger CEO Stefan Wolf: "This follow-up order underlines just how advantageous our lightweight components are for electric vehicles".

Major volume:

"According to ElringKlinger, the volume is in the mid to high double-digit millions . "This follow-up order underlines just how advantageous our lightweight components are for electric vehicles," says ElringKlinger CEO Stefan Wolf."​

If this is a 50-80 million Euros order, and if we estimate the volume unit cost at €100-200, then this would be a 500,000-800,000 units order, with a 12 months runtime, starting in 2020?

 

[flabellina]

Sitting in the hotel. Just held the door open for Jerome (Guillen). Still waiting for Elon

I'm getting waaay too much fun out of this!
I don't even watch sports anymore.

 

[KarenRei]

Last week a study came out that showed the Dutch are the best non-native English speakers in the world, so you should be OK .

For those intrested (and I'm not taking this OT post any further, it just came up):

English is the most widely spoken language in the world, but it is worth knowing that the vast majority of speakers are not “native.” Of the roughly 1.5 billion people in the world who speak English, over 1.1 billion speak it as a second language.

Fourteen countries were placed in the “very high” category: The Netherlands (No. 1), Sweden, Norway, Denmark, Singapore, South Africa, Finland, Austria, Luxembourg, Germany, Poland, Portugal, Belgium and Croatia (No. 14).

The country with the lowest English proficiency is Libya, followed by Kyrgyzstan, Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Ivory Coast, and Uzbekistan.

Full article here.

Where's Iceland on that list? Nowhere, apparently. I guess English here is so good that they're considering it a native language?

 

[Chickenlittle]

No problem at all. Me being a non-native speaker doesn't help.

I don’t understand moderator posts that don’t stand on their own or at least reference what they are responding to. Earlier stere was one by Audubon that just said “stop”. Left wondering what to stop. Guess we should all be considered warned but I don’t know what I was. If these are meant to be personal and not moderator posts perhaps they should in some way be indicated