Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Swampgator]

Ford Global Electric Architecture aka MEB.

So first edition will be delivered late 2020. And the cost is over 60K
Specs will be 270 mile range (targeted) and 0-60 mid 5 seconds.
The Model Y performance will eat its lunch

 

[Don TLR]

Nice find, this is IMO actually pretty close to how I think the Cybertruck will look like from the front:

Compare it with the first Cybertruck teaser image:

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mirrored, rotated and enhanced a bit:

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I can sleep in there,, remove that bottom crap, put some 37 inch tires on it and call it good

 

[JRP3]

It is possible to compensate for the risks of NCA chemistry and Tesla has now done this.

That has nothing to do with the inherent volatility of the chemistry.

That's not to say Tesla will blindly stick to NCA. They will research all chemistry possibilities. Maybe the 1 million mile battery chemistry tailored for Robotaxis will be NMC based, but Tesla & Dahn are researching ways to make single crystal NCA cathodes too. I don't think safety will be a barrier to continued NCA use at Tesla and they have still so far made the most progress on cost per kwh, energy density and cobalt reduction down the NCA path.

Source for Dahn's research on single crystal NCA? Increasing energy density and inherent safety of NMC, possibly without the C, may make NCA irrelevant. I think that's what Tesla and Dahn are working towards.

 

[Dan Detweiler]

Does Tesla bring a lift to your job?

Unfortunately, many Tesla owners need to take their cars to actual service centers where waits can be very long.

Most of the car buying public trust traditional auto companies more than Tesla.

Boy, your last statement really speaks to how far we have yet to go in educating the public.

Dan

 

[AlexS]

So first edition will be delivered late 2020. And the cost is over 60K
Specs will be 270 mile range (targeted) and 0-60 mid 5 seconds.
The Model Y performance will eat its lunch

View attachment 478270

I absolutely agree

 

[RiverBrick]

So first edition will be delivered late 2020. And the cost is over 60K
Specs will be 270 mile range (targeted) and 0-60 mid 5 seconds.
The Model Y performance will eat its lunch

They are counting on the $7,500 rebate to compete in the USA.

In Canada, where Tesla has not been phased out of rebates, the announced Mach E prices are about $5,500 USD less.

 

[dc_h]

They will start by selling $50k-~$65k Mach E Made in Mexico with labor rates of $4.82/hr( compared to $6.50/hr in China) with plentiful but cheap benefits to Ford.

View attachment 478236

Manufacturing labor costs per hour: China, Vietnam, Mexico 2016-2020 | Statista

Is Hergestellt in Deutschland really worth $30/hr plus very generous and costly benefits?

30 an hour is only 60,000 annual salary less overtime. 40 years ago I think an auto production worker made a better multiple of average wages then this. I want Tesla profitable, but I hope the productivity of EV’s isn’t based on crappy wages. I wonder if Tesla will be stock bonusing global plant employees or focusing on paying higher wages.

 

[scaesare]

I think you'll find extremely limited evidence of Model 3 fires however.

I'd bet that the incorporation of intumescent goo may play as much of a part as the chemistry optimization in the 3.

Which simply further illustrates that the holistic engineering of cells/packs is a significant advantageous Tesla core competency. Slapping together parts from suppliers won't give you the same results for the cost.

 

[davecolene0606]

Does Tesla bring a lift to your job?

Unfortunately, many Tesla owners need to take their cars to actual service centers where waits can be very long.

Most of the car buying public trust traditional auto companies more than Tesla.

Your gonna need a citation on that last sentence. (or an IMHO)

Fire Away!

 

[lascavarian]

Ford on CNBC confirms manufacturing in Mexico and highlighting this minimizes import tariffs in Europe.

Ford is essentially monetizing the rebates as intended in the US and will likely try to export as much as possible because they will suffer when the US rebates expire. This could be more popular off-shore given fuel costs.

 

[GBleck]

Does Tesla bring a lift to your job?

Unfortunately, many Tesla owners need to take their cars to actual service centers where waits can be very long.

Most of the car buying public trust traditional auto companies more than Tesla.

Technically traditional auto companies don't have any service centers.

 

[mrmage]

So first edition will be delivered late 2020. And the cost is over 60K
Specs will be 270 mile range (targeted) and 0-60 mid 5 seconds.
The Model Y performance will eat its lunch

View attachment 478270

Even for the first 80k of the Fords with tax credits, the Mustang is $53k equivalent, but the M3 LR has slightly more range and is much faster 0 to 60 at 4.8 sec vs Ford’s “mid 5s” at the same price.

I don’t understand why article after article says the Mustang is competitive, especially if a Mustang is a performance car. Even under the most favorable price at product launch, why is .7+ secs slower at the same price point considered competitive? Not to mention Ford’s inferior charging network, smaller interior space, no AP, fewer cameras, etc?

Not bashing on the Mach E, but I’d really like to understand the logic.

 

[madodel]

The Pinto Mach-E will have the battery pack behind the rear axle.

Will there be room to have an optional hydrogen storage capsule there as well?

 

[winfield100]

I think F is trading higher than $1....

@kcveins
Oops, my bad.
I was startled when I saw a quote of $1.02/share of F and didn’t investigate further <<major blush>>
One of the vagaries of aging in various tropical climes
(Saw more EV’s, including 1 bmw i3, a gaggle of leafs, a Tesla X and S and a couple of 3’s on Kaua’i)

 

[lascavarian]

Not bashing on the Mach E, but I’d really like to understand the logic.

Seems like a statement to their dealers for one. The end of public disparaging for EVs and a message that big changes are on the way and there are no sacred cows that are safe. It is a good step and an acknowledgment of a very different future for the many dealers that will see their service revenue now contract.

 

[ReflexFunds]

That has nothing to do with the inherent volatility of the chemistry.

Source for Dahn's research on single crystal NCA? Increasing energy density and inherent safety of NMC, possibly without the C, may make NCA irrelevant. I think that's what Tesla and Dahn are working towards.

The point is the stability of the standalone chemistry is irrelevant if the BMS/cell/pack designs mean it poses no meaningful fire risk in the actual car.

NCA isn’t inherently less stable than NMC. NCA is normally less stable than NMC principally because NCA normally has higher Nickel content than NMC. But as NMC moves to higher Nickel content the inherent stability of the chemistry reduces.

Dahn does lots of work with NCA. He most often publishes papers using NMC because this is the most common chemistry in the industry so it is most useful to publish as an industry benchmark. Tesla doesn’t let Dahn publish papers with details of the exact chemistry they are producing commercially though.

I linked to Dahn’s paper on single crystal NCA cathodes at the end of my post earlier:

The empty cell was purchased by Dahn's group, but likely built to Dahn's specification, and the choice of electrolyte additives added by Dahn was the core discovery in Dahn's latest paper. Tesla and Dahn did not invent single crystal (micrometer size scale) NMC 532 cathodes but Dahn's group has been very focussed on researching their properties for several years now. Dahn has published many papers on how to optimise cell properties to get the most from the advantages of the single crystal cathode structure. Dahn and Tesla actually filed their first patent on choosing electrolyte additives for single crystal NMC532 cells back in July 2017. US20190036171 NOVEL BATTERY SYSTEMS BASED ON TWO-ADDITIVE ELECTROLYTE SYSTEMS

The main new discoveries made by Dahn which are combined to contribute to the state of the art 1 million mile cell life are:

• Single crystal cathodes can be better than polycrystalline cathodes. - 2017 Comparison of Single Crystal and Polycrystalline LiNi0.5Mn0.3Co0.2O2 Positive Electrode Materials for High Voltage Li-Ion Cells
• A Titanium surface coating to the cathode can be beneficial. https://pubs.acs.org/doi/pdf/10.1021/acsaem.8b01472?rand=iq0k47ey
• This can provide high performance cells with long cycle life if paired with a carefully optimised choice of electrolyte.

The experiment in the latest 1m mile paper used single crystal NMC532/artificial graphite with a Ti-based coating pouch cells (240 mAh at 4.3 V) supplied by Li-FUN Technology (Based in China) - with the electrolytes then added by Dahn's team. The artificial graphite used was KaijinAML-400 from Kaijin, China.

I don't think any of these key discoveries are necessarily restricted to the specific NMC cathode or anode or the pouch format used above. Dahn's team has also published papers on how to make single crystal NCA cathodes for example. Synthesis of Single Crystal LiNi0.88Co0.09Al0.03O2 with a Two-Step Lithiation Method. I doubt the cell chemistry Tesla is developing in its commercial cell R&D lab is the exact same NMC532 chemistry tested publicly by Dahn, but it will use the key ideas discovered by Dahn.

 

[woodisgood]

Seems like a statement to their dealers for one. The end of public disparaging for EVs and a message that big changes are on the way and there are no sacred cows that are safe. It is a good step and an acknowledgment of a very different future for the many dealers that will see their service revenue now contract.

Meh, more land for charging stations.

 

[HG Wells]

Will there be room to have an optional hydrogen storage capsule there as well?

You swallow the hydrogen capsule to lighten the vehicle's weight.

 

[mongo]

Current block of headlines on CNN

• Tesla is the company to beat
• Not Tesla
• Leaving ourselves an opening to have positive articles about Tesla in the future
• Tesla expanding manufacturing to Europe, (may expand somewhere else first ???)
• Not Tesla

 

[Chunky Jr.]

The fact that analysts would even consider the Mach-E to be a Tesla killer shows how little they know about Tesla. Tesla is an awesome car that happens to be an EV. People aren't buying it just because it is an EV. They are buying it because it is a really fun car that is great to drive, and all the benefits of being an EV are icing on the cake.