Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[humbaba]

Interesting. Of course, was anything really that safe in cities of that age? Gas systems, animals/waste/carcasses, barely existent sanitation, coal/wood fired everything, etc.

You know, I miss the good old days when you could check your wiring by just touching it exactly the same as I miss the good old days when I had to change the oil in my car, or could tweak my car's performance by simple things like messing with the spark plugs.

Everything was so much better back in the good old days. Now we're all being babied by safety, reliability and consistency

 

[AlexS]

$362.10 in premarket.

I think we are looking at a repeat of the pattern from the last 6 days. Tim Seymour starts to close his position today?

You have to push it above 370 for Tim to blink. But today is Friday, options expiration day, may also easily fall back to yesterdays lows. Depending on who wrote most calls, the MMs or shorts.

 

[M3Rider]

Most of Russian trolling is low effort trolling, heavily automated, to manipulate public opinion and votes in particular.

The high effort TMC and TSLAQ trolls are almost always native English speakers, dominantly American, with a few Brits and Aussies.

I don't know where you get your info. There's a building full of them in St. Petersburg - they are not heavily automated and definitely no Americans, Aussies, Brits in that building. Maybe they expanded a lot in the last year I haven't followed, but one reason for not automating was getting a bigger budget for the operations.

What was indeed automated is youtube manipulation - since Russia got some admin rights due to the law that personal data of their users must remain within the country physical borders, they used those admin rights to figure out how youtube works and roll down all the stats that helps opposition videos - so, they rarely show up in the top due to activity being suppressed.

 

[Tslynk67]

And apparently the OI just said that the news about the trade deal is “wrong” - hence the pre-market/future drop across the board.

Seriously...??

 

[Cirrus MS100D]

I think there are too many variables to make any statement about product osbourning. For example, I always wanted a sedan so getting a Model 3 was a no brainer. My wife needs a vehicle for transporting stuff, currently that's a van. I think she originally indicated Model Y was not capacious enough and I figured we couldn't afford it anyway so close to the 3, so we gave that a miss.

Then came the cybertruck and overnight I went from WTF to "must buy now" and made my reservation. I figured I've got two years to figure out the financing, lock it in. My wife said, "that's for me, right?" and, reluctantly, I must agree. After all, I got my car. But now she's talking about getting a model Y instead of the cybertruck. To which my response is "sell off the 3, get the truck and Y.

I have two points here:

1. buyers only have so much budget. I don't think Tesla cares if you buy a model Y or a 3 or cybertruck -- what matters is that your automotive budget is spent on a Tesla. They have enough sales for each model to keep them going so who cares?

2. we had no plans for replacing the van until the cybertruck unveiling, now we do. If you can persuade people to allocate more of their money to the automotive budge to buy a vehicle from you, how is that not a win?

I would agree with all of this. We have an S with the RFS now, as that was the best tool for the job THAT WAS AVAILABLE when we “needed” a new car in 2017. I had planned to get a Model 3, but ended up with a dirt cheap FIAT 500e to get me to/from the train station, but I also need to do occasional long drives. We had our sights set on Model Y to replace our Subaru STI wagon, but the Y has a LOT of overlap with our existing S, which we love. Once the Cybertruck came out, we realized this was going to be the best replacement for our Subaru.

All this is to say that as much as we may want to lump groups of people together, each large financial decision (like buying a car) comes down to personal decisions- If somebody “needs” a car ASAP because their current one is on its last legs or somebody get an unexpected holiday bonus payout or somebody loses a job unexpectedly, this all impacts orders and sales.

 

[Zaxxon]

Just a quick NL+NO+SP update... As of late last week, this quarter has surpassed the final delivery total for each quarter in 2018 for these three countries, and this before the EoQ rush really gets into high gear.

2019 Q4 is currently sitting 68% higher than the highest prior quarter for NL+NO+SP, which was Q3 of this year. Should make for an interesting finish to the year. Q3 ended at 12,349 for these 3 countries. If Q4 were to maintain that 68% lead, it would end with 20,800 deliveries just to these 3 countries.

Usual caveats: This is just these 3 countries, deliveries here could be starving deliveries in other countries, past performance is not an indicator of future results, don't count chickens, eat your Wheaties, etc.

The above is from Monday. Looking at the data through today, the current quarter is now 74.6% above Q3, implying that if the current pace continues, Q4 totals in these three countries would now be 21,500. In other words, the trend is improving further.

Same caveats as above. One additional--while last quarter and this quarter are both 92 days long, we will likely see an impact from the holidays. Accounting for that, maybe we'd be looking at more like 20,000-21,000 for the quarter assuming this trend continues.

 

[StealthP3D]

$362.10 in premarket.

I think we are looking at a repeat of the pattern from the last 6 days.

I would think you would want to hear what the Chinese have to say about the trade agreement before you make that claim!

 

[humbaba]

And apparently the OI just said that the news about the trade deal is “wrong” - hence the pre-market/future drop across the board.

Seriously...??

And yesterday people were arguing with me over the Trump & Dump, claiming it was somehow different this time. Sigh.

 

[jerry33]

And apparently the OI just said that the news about the trade deal is “wrong” - hence the pre-market/future drop across the board.

Seriously...??

He's going to play Trump and dump as long as he can. Hedge funds must be paying him a bundle.

 

[jeewee3000]

ATH is less than 7% away (EDIT: to be clear: less than 7% of the SP of $364,50 at the time of writing)

 

[Dan Detweiler]

THAT would blow my mind. More than probably anything I've seen this year including the Cybertruck.

I feel it is out of the question that Elon would ever end up on CNBC as a guest.

Elon tweets about Yoda

We have the Force with us!! SP will be above 370$ at the end of the day

I am a bit more pessimistic. I think there will be a big battle around $365.

Dan

 

[Tslynk67]

Uhuh?

So this is $TSLA with the macro reacting badly - what's going to happen when that flips?

 

[UncaNed]

Does this price action appear to be from somebody accumulating massively?

 

[humbaba]

I am a bit more pessimistic. I think there will be a big battle around $365.

Dan

That's also my default expectation given that the last few days have been ~+$5/day -- of course patterns like that hold true until they don't.

 

[Chop110]

ATH is less than 7% away (EDIT: to be clear: less than 7% of the SP of $364,50 at the time of writing)

I hope we hit it next week!

 

[Runarbt]

Does this price action appear to be from somebody accumulating massively?

more likely, a short-hug. no squeeze yet

 

[jeewee3000]

Upper BB (daily chart) is currently $365,47. This will be a tough nut to crack without news.

 

[ZachF]

Porsche CEO Blume just revealed in an interview that he don't understand how a BEV drive train works.

I am kind of in a shock.

Alex on Twitter
Oliver Blume: „Porsche erlebt gerade eine Sonderkonjunktur“

"The big players will just be able to come in whenever they want and crush Tesla!!".

The fact of the matter is, there is extremely little experiential overlap between designing and building a BEB power train and designing and building an ICE drivetrain. The idea that big ICE manufacturers could just swoop in and crush Tesla with superior designs was stupid on the face of it.

 

[TheTalkingMule]

Live CNBC is hilarious right now. Chinese IPO opening the NYSE today doing chants in the background as we await the Chinese press conf. Not a good look!

 

[jeewee3000]

Live CNBC is hilarious right now. Chinese IPO opening the NYSE today doing chants in the background as we await the Chinese press conf. Not a good look!

can we see live CNBC from Europe?