Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Krugerrand]

So if I have this right..
We need to keep one guy napping...one going out for gourmet food...one drinking in a bar.

And this run will continue...right?

Yes.

And I’ll stay being bored and sleeping. You’re welcome.

 

[RFernatt]

Yes.

And I’ll stay being bored and sleeping. You’re welcome.

In true cat fashion.

 

[SoGA Fan Club]

I don’t think being short via puts has much of any impact on the SP. If they’re in the green, they get exercised, causing a buy on the open market, and a pre-arranged sale at a set price. If not, they expire worthless and whoever sold the puts pockets the money from them.

If I was a betting person, I'd bet he meant "short position". But truth be told, he was probably just running his mouth - tying to repeat something he read on the internet, or a friend told him.

 

[Thekiwi]

Due to my timezone, every morning when I wake up I catch the stock price with about an hour or two left in the trading day, and I spend 10-20 minutes catching up with this thread.

Well today it took a bit longer than normal to catch up on the overnight posts, but I have to say it was one of the most enjoyable thread catchups to read in a long time, knowing where the stock price was going to be and the reaction throughout the day to its rise and push through ATH.

Also, this guy:

Oh wow:

TSLA 2019 | Page 21 | Elite Trader

"My buddy who trades TSLA just blew out... I can't be sure of the loss but he blocked me on Twitter and insta, so it's gotta be bad. He was down $2MM on the year with the shares at $335 and I know he was short 100K there as well as thousands of naked calls (short)."

"I am off this week and just looked. $388. ATH."​

$335->$390 with 100k TSLA shares short is another $5.5m loss. Writing thousands of naked call contracts is incredibly risky, but I guess he needed the cash.

Then:

"He was convinced it was a $75 stock. He was short from 260 and held it to the touch of 165 on something like 80K shares. Didn't cover. Forced to cover at unch and then shorted (100K shares) again the day before earnings. Was shorting calls all the way to 350. I haven't talked to him since it hit 350."

"He's trying to sublet his $40K/month Tribeca apt on the qt as the co-op board won't allow it."​

With the naked calls that's going to be a hard landing ...

 

[Curt Renz]

MarketWatch - 6 minutes ago: Tesla stock closes at record, nears $400

 

[Skryll]

I feel that I should say something at this great moment. I added more stake during the down trend time, $290 $260 $252 and ran out of dry powder. Then it went to you know, $176 or something? That was a painful process.
Now that all passed, but TESLA car still has a lot to improve on quality and reliability. My wife still doesn’t agree to buy one. Let’s keep pushing Elon and his fellow employee, though they always push themselves hard already.
Congratulations to everyone who stand strong up to today. Cheers!

Quality and reliability are fine. The ride and life quality thanks to plug in and full in the morning, autopilot, performance and safety is 1000x better than the legacy gas cars, every day you wait in the abyss is a day you will regret once you made the switch too late. I am not kidding when I say it feels like I left a very ugly past I did not even know I was stuck in.

 

[humbaba]

MarketWatch - 6 minutes ago: Tesla stock closes at record, nears $400

Good to see she's still got what it takes /s

The stock traded as high as $393.22 on Wednesday, a new intraday record.

See, she didn't even lie -- that's true. It did trade as high as $393.22. In fact, it traded even higher, reaching $395.22.

Now, was that just a typo? Probably. Maybe. I mean, everyone makes typos. But given her nigh constant negative spin on Tesla its hard to credit that it wasn't intentional.

 

[Rockster]

As the stock gets higher, I've been building / will continue to build a small stake of put positions to hedge for a possible correction. I am really not expecting it though.

I was just thinking of doing exactly that.

 

[Ggusev]

So now everyone boarded for a pleasant ride?
What have to say, image below is exactly how this ATH celebration looks for wallstreet killerwhales.
They feel there's helluva lot of sweet naive 5% stoploss, and they likely gonna try harvesting it, if not now, then vicinity of 420 could definitely trigger one (amplified by robinhood crowd taking profits en masse).
Anyway, most of us here endured quite frustrating journey to 177 and won't be impressed by temporary pullback to 360

 

[StealthP3D]

On-topic prediction market valuations, end of:

Now: $60B
2020: $75B (China Giga and Y main drivers, some from new S and X)
2021: $90-100B (FSD and monetizing time in car main drivers)
2022: $120-130B (Berlin Euro Giga, CyberTruck, Semi, Tesla Glass Roof main drivers)
2023: $150-$170B (all of the above on steroids, another Giga main drivers, Tesla buys assets from bankrupt weakest ICE company that failed to switch to EV for some of their factories).

Along the way TSLA added to S&P 500 and later DJI which provides some of the market valuation boost when all the indices have to buy the stock.

Just glancing at your market valuation estimates, I notice the annual increases are quite steady. I would expect a lot of the gains you recognize in later years to show up in the market valuations of earlier years. This is how it works with dominant market guerillas - as the company becomes established in a more credible way, the market tends to price in what is now more inevitable than before.

True a Model 3 P is supposed to max out at 145 mph last I checked — but hard to use that except places like Germany or on the track, and even then you are draining your battery quickly due to wind resistance not being a linear function of velocity.

Off-topic: Performance Model 3's are software limited to 162 mph. The tires on even the base model (at least in North America) are rated to 168 mph continuous, Michelin MXM4 Primacy. This is a special version of this size/model specifically for Tesla (most of the other MXM4's in this size are only speed rated to 149 mph).

In case you work for law enforcement, the proceeding 120 mph is a fictional fantasy!

Mr. Russ Engle, I am a law enforcement officer for the California Highway Patrol, please contact my office at the number below so I don't have to track you down on my own time. You can reach me at: 1-415-272-JOKE

 

[Tslynk67]

Picked up a couple more shares at $392 to celebrate ATH. Cheers!

I also want to thank the shorts for giving me the opportunity to triple my position this year.

6 shares now then?

 

[lklundin]

Since we are in the AH, I will just point to this new nugget added to my Tesla account within the last few hours:

"The Acceleration Boost upgrade requires your car have software version 2019.40.2 installed to complete."

- which sounds a lot like a pure software upgrade.

Christmas in December?

Lars Kr. Lundin on Twitter

 

[NakedLong]

After hours volume: 229.89k shares as of 4:12, trading around $393.

Tomorrow morning might feature another wave of margin calls.

I was just reading about margin calls - am I right in saying it varies from broker to broker a lot with how margin calls are handled? And margin calls can give the investor 2-5 days to come up with funds? Does this mean we have a 2-5 day period of margin calls for every rally in SP? Do some brokers automatically just buy or sell stock to meet margin requirements?

 

[Dan Detweiler]

I feel that I should say something at this great moment. I added more stake during the down trend time, $290 $260 $252 and ran out of dry powder. Then it went to you know, $176 or something? That was a painful process.
Now that all passed, but TESLA car still has a lot to improve on quality and reliability. My wife still doesn’t agree to buy one. Let’s keep pushing Elon and his fellow employee, though they always push themselves hard already.
Congratulations to everyone who stand strong up to today. Cheers!

What exactly is it lacking in quality and reliability? My experience has been stellar.

Dan

 

[sundaymorning]

The media use to be able to bully Tesla downwards in the early days when M3 production was stalled, but I can’t see them doing that now when the company is profitable and will be firing on all cylinders by end of 2020. Model y next year will crush a lot of shorters.

 

[Nocturnal]

Now I have to decide whether to let my 12/20 calls (ranging from $365 to $440) ride out until Friday, or sell now. Last time I had a winning call I sold mid-day and left 50% of the gains on the table. They are all pretty cheap so I'm not "losing" much if they wind up worthless by some miracle. Maybe I'll sell the $365 and keep the rest?

Edit, screw it. I'm letting it ride.

Quality and reliability are fine. The ride and life quality thanks to plug in and full in the morning, autopilot, performance and safety is 1000x better than the legacy gas cars, every day you wait in the abyss is a day you will regret once you made the switch too late. I am not kidding when I say it feels like I left a very ugly past I did not even know I was stuck in.

+1 I'm a "car guy" and I don't care about panel gaps or minor imperfections. (mine is pretty solid I think) The benefits of a Tesla far outweigh the claimed quality problems. The only issue IMO are the people who had to wait weeks/months for accident repairs but even those seem to be far less of an issue.

I never heard of panel gaps before Tesla, and I doubt we will after. I have one of the first performance model 3s and I had two minor repairs early on, good paint, and 26k miles later it still looks and drives like a dream. I've also saved about 2k in fuel/maintenance. ​

 

[Pezpunk]

Now that all passed, but TESLA car still has a lot to improve on quality and reliability. My wife still doesn’t agree to buy one.

??? Your wife is dead wrong about Tesla. My Model S has been flawless over the last 3.5 years. Zero quality issues. Zero reliability issues.

 

[Rarity]

So what if this is not just shorts covering but a hostile takeover accumulation, would we get notification before it is too late?

At these levels, it would be difficult to do without the support of management. Who would have the money to go hostile? Even the Saudis probably don't have that kind of cash.

Probably just one or more strategic investors stalking TSLA.

 

[Renew]

Why does everyone keep saying $4000 price target (I know, ARK!), but I feel the min price target should be $5555 with current no. of shares outstanding

How long it might take? To achieve that in 5 years, need over 70% annual returns every year and to achieve it in 10 years, need about 30% annual returns every year. The latter seems easily achievable and the former is what I am rooting for.

In any case, $1T!

 

[Nocturnal]

Why does everyone keep saying $4000 price target (I know, ARK!), but I feel the min price target should be $5555 with current no. of shares outstanding

How long it might take? To achieve that in 5 years, need over 70% annual returns every year and to achieve it in 10 years, need about 30% annual returns every year. The latter seems easily achievable and the former is what I am rooting for.

In any case, $1T!

Ark's newer bull case target is in the 5k area isn't it? Kathy believes that Tesla's tech lead is increasing and that they will retain more market share than they previously predicted.

4k is a magic number for me because I could retire just on my TSLA shares (assuming I sell and use the 4% rule) and have a similar lifestyle I have now.