Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Fact Checking]

Although @Fact Checking did put me at ease somewhat with the price cut and VAT explanation.

Sorry, as @printf42 pointed it out, Tesla got a "purchase tax" exemption - VAT was already 0%.

Even with that taken into account, GF3 margins look healthy.

 

[JustMe]

Plus gasoline prices in Beijing for example are ~$4.5/gallon, which is a significant cost: ~$70 to refuel a BMW 3-Series - and high performance engines also have punitive local taxes.

Tesla's price advantages cannot be matched by German Big Three.

Guys - please, no more! I can only get so bullish!

Obviously GF3 was a brilliant gamble. What fun

 

[deffu]

The MIC M3 price cut was deliberately planned. The MIC M3 price was set high at launch to not to hold people off from purchasing imported M3 for the last 2 quarters. Now the local capacity is here, they slashed the price before delivery. the original price was a placeholder they never meant to sell at given G3 going smoothly.

 

[JustMe]

Does anyone know if Elon mentioned anything pertaining to China’s tax credit as being a hinderance to deliveries in Q4? Did he say anything about holding back deliveries bc they were waiting for it’s approval?

I never read anything about Tesla planning to deliver GF3 cars in Q4. They did talk about their production plans. And the only delivery date I saw promised was before January 25.

Everybody on the outside was freaking out about how long it took to get the various permits and licenses. But Tesla seemed to take it in stride.

In short, I do not think Tesla banked on GF3 for Q4. They have guided 360k+ all year.

 

[jhm]

I used to be a hold forever guy, but my strategy has shifted from hold forever through thick or thin..to swinging maybe 30% of my portfolio and taking advantage of the price movements, especially with the current volatility. This may sound greedy of me, but if my gut is right, I’ll be making a substantial amount of money on my decision tomorrow to purchase some protective puts. When the stock was down, shorts could have covered, many didn’t.. so here they are with their backs against the wall.

I’m trying to remain focused on the short term observations so that in an event of a miss (I give that a 50% chance right now), I could have more powder to buy lower. What also concerns me as a bull is that being here since 2012 I’ve seen many longs burn out after two years of waiting for the ship to turn, many of those investors simply couldn’t stomach the down stretch because they took advise from super bulls. It isn’t just about you nor about me on this board, but there are also countless nubs as well as long term traders who may be buying in at current prices, gambling with out of the money options... thinking that this quarter is a lock. If those guys burn out as many here have in the past then we are contributing to their demise. As a community, I’m trying to poke around to see if there are any explanations that would steer me away from wasting my dimes on protective puts tomorrow. So far I haven’t. Although @Fact Checking did put me at ease somewhat with the price cut and VAT explanation. If I had not brought that up, I would have not understood the VAT transfer. So excuse me if I am putting my thoughts out there, but having been burned hard and enduring some pains through the past 5 years I am inclined to be more cautious than ever with over promises for the short term. You are welcome to put me on ignore if you feel that my thoughts are clogging up this board for the next 24 hours.

Does anyone know if Elon mentioned anything pertaining to China’s tax credit as being a hinderance to deliveries in Q4? Did he say anything about holding back deliveries bc they were waiting for it’s approval? If not, I feel that it may be an unpleasant surprise as they simply thought the exempt would be “automatic” instead of having to wait for its approval. This may sound silly, but so was sending M3 builds without the correct Chinese requirements last quarter.

I hear you. This is why I've been thinking through the possibility of the stock price trading within a range of $370 to $570 over the next several years. Others pushed back on the idea that Tesla would be range bound for several year. Maybe the stock price will trend with some fundamental going forward. I can't rule that out. But suppose that Tesla climbs above $520 by April. That could be too high too soon. It could well set a new ATH that could stick for several years, locking in range bound trading for that duration.

So if the price does rise too high too fast, what is a long to do? I see three basic responses: hold, sell, or sell covered call options. I'd rather sell covered call options than buy protective puts. The reason is that I don't see much upside potential at the upper end of the trading range and am willing to sell that for cash. If the price falls, I net cash from the call options which can then be used to buy more shares at the lower end of the range. On the other hand, if one just sells at the top, then of course one can buy back at the bottom. So pretty similar, but if the stock just goes sideways, the covered calls can still net cash, as synthetic dividend if you will.

All the best, jhm

 

[PeterJA]

I used to be a hold forever guy, but my strategy has shifted from hold forever through thick or thin..to swinging maybe 30% of my portfolio... but having been burned hard and enduring some pains through the past 5 years I am inclined to be more cautious than ever with over promises for the short term.

That's one response to gambling pain. Another would be to stop gambling and stop worrying.

Speaking of no worries about the long-term...

 

[sundaymorning]

The MIC M3 price cut was deliberately planned. The MIC M3 price was set high at launch to not to hold people off from purchasing imported M3 for the last 2 quarters. Now the local capacity is here, they slashed the price before delivery. the original price was a price tag they never meant to sell at given G3 going smoothly.

Best explanation yet.

 

[mact3333]

as we we await for these numbers, funny how we TSLA holders think alike...when cybertruck was unveiled i looked at my kid and said, "that just cost me a Rolex"...sure enough that's exactly what I lost the next morning...but then got it back and then some......but Ive played stocks way more volatile than TSLA...this is childs play ....

 

[CanadaEV]

A few things that would interest me, but probably are very hard or impossible to find:
1) Co-relation of new TSLA investment volume by first time Tesla owners.
2) Co-relation of changes of TSLA investment volumes by factory location countries – I.e China and Germany.
3) Relation of retail level investment compared to progressive growth in delivery numbers. (This info should be more easily available)
4) Any other TSLA investment data with relationships to similar kinds of demographics.

 

[LJS22]

The MIC M3 price cut was deliberately planned. The MIC M3 price was set high at launch to not to hold people off from purchasing imported M3 for the last 2 quarters. Now the local capacity is here, they slashed the price before delivery. the original price was a price tag they never meant to sell at given G3 going smoothly.

Makes sense. Elon Musk is genius, Chinese government loves transparency. Sounds like they’ve planned the China GF3 down to the very last detail. I’d like to say I’m a smart investor for putting my money on Tesla, but EM is keeping us 5 steps ahead. Good guy haha

 

[Artful Dodger]

I have been following this and love the form factor. I think it could do very well in Portland.

What makes you think that?!

 

[sundaymorning]

Dow futures drop 200 points after US air strike kills Iran's top military leader

This may not affect Tesla but as some has pointed out it may affect the overall market. Nekkei was down less than 1%

 

[Aeon]

Not looking too bad at Tradegate (let's call it pre-pre-market).
Spread still a bit wiiiiiiiiiiide.
~427$

 

[kengchang]

Dow futures drop 200 points after US air strike kills Iran's top military leader

This may not affect Tesla but as some has pointed out it may affect the overall market. Nekkei was down less than 1%

200 pts sound a lot but DOW is at 28800

 

[RobStark]

@RobStark said it would not happen when I mentioned the possibility in the past

I said they would not cut prices. Everybody around the world pays the same plus local taxes and shipping.

Tesla is passing on a subsidy from the Chinese State to the Chinese Consumer. A negative tax if you will. The difference is local taxes. Tesla pockets roughly the same amount.

 

[Mike Smith]

426.70 in Germany

 

[SpaceCash]

I have told my friends recently that the only thing that can screw up my Tesla investment now is WW3 or Elon becoming incapacitated.

Looks like we might get the World War. Parasitic banking cartel interests have wanted to subjugate Iran for decades. Taking out a general is very ballsy and I hope this doesn't escalate much (but don't see how it won't).

 

[ambudriver03]

Been selling put spreads for weeks here and only got burned after the cyber truck but fml... I'm hoping we don't test 400 tomorrow else my spreads are going to be blown to hell. (Need to hold 420 to avoid assignment)
( I bought some protective puts right before close that expire tomorrow that will give me some slight downside protection but not nearly enough to cover my put spreads if TSLA goes to hell tomorrow.)

I'd also sold some put spreads on AMZN that expire tomorrow too... Hoping AMZN holds 1850

 

[Aeon]

Trending down a bit more together with everybody else.
~425.50$

 

[Fact Checking]

The MIC M3 price cut was deliberately planned. The MIC M3 price was set high at launch to not to hold people off from purchasing imported M3 for the last 2 quarters. Now the local capacity is here, they slashed the price before delivery. the original price was a placeholder they never meant to sell at given G3 going smoothly.

This sounds a plausible explanation.

Another interesting detail is the timing of this announcement: just before the Q4 delivery report. This looks deliberate too.

It suggests that the P&D report might be released today (potentially before trading opens), and maybe they timed it so that any price reaction would be mixed into the price reaction of the Q4 deliveries?

But I have no idea whether this is bullish or bearish.