Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Todd Burch]

Solid DD.

Stop talking about my wife.

 

[LeonHe]

Whoa … the stock is so high lol

 

[Prunesquallor]

What are you waiting for? Sell. I’m certainly not going to tell you otherwise, I’m still sitting on my shares from 2012 and not selling now. I got 7 islands, 2 yachts, a CYBRTRCK and Roadster to buy. Also now 7 drag strips to build.

At least @Lycanthrope is building my walls for me.

@Lycanthrope is building secret entrances through the walls. I’ll always be basking on one of your islands that you’re not.

 

[UncaNed]

I gave you a funny for that, but Elon on DWTS would be epic. Their ratings would go through the roof and I’d actually vote for the first time ever.

...after a dance lesson from John Cleese just to make it more interesting.

 

[StealthP3D]

What is important is to maximize profits. Buying a stock at a good price, missing a sell point and having to wait a year for it to rise again is a poor way to make money. I bought at several prices including on the way down (about what I thought might be bottom and I was about right). Now all my purchases are well up, as I said about 75% which is more like 80% now. I can capture profit now with larger tax payments or take the risk of the price dropping and waiting another quarter to be able to take advantage of long term capital gains tax rates. Even if Q4 and Q1 sales and profit numbers are good, unless they are great (which I think will be unlikely) the bubble can't continue.

OK, it sounds like you know exactly how to play this.

It makes me wonder why you were asking for advice in the first place since you're so good at this game.

Good luck and let us know how it goes.

 

[jhm]

If we all dance like Elon in unison across he globe, I feel like that should exert an upward gravitational force on the stock price.

I’ll leave the details to the physicists, but I think this would work.

We can all be Dancing Elon Masters. The power is within.

 

[PhaseWhite]

View attachment 497660 View attachment 497661

I really hope Tim Seymour is holding out for at least 570 before he covers.

 

[dandurston]

Yeah Tim's gonna want to see the next ER at least.

 

[Nocturnal]

Shortville is going nuts about an car fire in an airport garage in Norway or saying how bad they hated Elon's dancing. I haven't seen it yet but they are definitely hoping for some fatalities.

 

[GaryW]

That's why the current price is not sustainable.

since Tesla is both manufacturer and seller, shouldn’t we compare them with the other car manufacturers and their dealer network?
That is, if it makes sense to compare them.
Chevy has ~5000 dealers in the US?

 

[CanadaEV]

Does anyone have a source for the up-to-the minute short tally for TSLA?

 

[SouthSeas]

We can't predict what will happen on a narrow short term basis. If you're really that freaked out about FUD, take some money off the table. At least you'll be able to sleep at night. You have to do what's right for you. We can't decide.

Not sure why you think I'm "freaked out" and I never asked you to decide anything. I pointed out the decision I need to make. My concerns are,

1) Q4 profit numbers
2) Q1 quarter results, production and profit
3) anything else that might tank the stock in the next 5 months.

Not likely, but something could happen in China that would stop or slow production. Even if it has little impact on anything real, the stock price would likely drop a lot.

Musk could get back on twitter saying something incredibly stupid... well, maybe not. He wouldn't do that, would he?

It only would take one quarter of lower model 3 deliveries and the world will panic that demand for the model 3 is dropping with commensurate stock price drop. That one is a real concern. For me it would take three or more quarters of lower deliveries to believe model 3 demand is slowing which may just happen when the Y comes out. But that won't be by the end of May.

 

[SouthSeas]

since Tesla is both manufacturer and seller, shouldn’t we compare them with the other car manufacturers and their dealer network?
That is, if it makes sense to compare them.
Chevy has ~5000 dealers in the US?

What is your point?

 

[StealthP3D]

Does anyone have a source for the up-to-the minute short tally for TSLA?

Nope. Too much smoke to count them at the moment! Once the smoke clears we'll be able to count the smoldering bodies.

 

[humbaba]

Does anyone have a source for the up-to-the minute short tally for TSLA?

Look a few posts up. I just covered this. Short answer is no, there is not up-to-the minute short tally data. tl;dr, updated twice a month, but with a two week delay

edit: Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the 2019-2020 Investors' Roundtable

 

[Steve m]

I'd like to take a moment to commend my fellow TMCers on their strict adherence to the no poetry rule. Truly, you're a fine bunch.

You should take us out to lunch

 

[Nocturnal]

I was promised a short squeeze. How high does this thing need to go before that happens?

 

[Curt Renz]

I was promised a short squeeze. How high does this thing need to go before that happens?

 

[Chickenlittle]

Not sure why you think I'm "freaked out" and I never asked you to decide anything. I pointed out the decision I need to make. My concerns are,

1) Q4 profit numbers
2) Q1 quarter results, production and profit
3) anything else that might tank the stock in the next 5 months.

Not likely, but something could happen in China that would stop or slow production. Even if it has little impact on anything real, the stock price would likely drop a lot.

Musk could get back on twitter saying something incredibly stupid... well, maybe not. He wouldn't do that, would he?

It only would take one quarter of lower model 3 deliveries and the world will panic that demand for the model 3 is dropping with commensurate stock price drop. That one is a real concern. For me it would take three or more quarters of lower deliveries to believe model 3 demand is slowing which may just happen when the Y comes out. But that won't be by the end of May.

Sorry your short now

 

[humbaba]

So I saw that Claudia Assis had penned an article and as she is always good at finding the cloud of a sliver lining I had to take a look.

Tesla’s stock rally got a boost last week when the company reported above-expectations fourth-quarter deliveries, its proxy for sales.

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/t...-after-deliveries-top-expectations-2020-01-03
That is a strange thing to say and, given her coverage of Tesla, she knows what this means. By using "proxy" she is weakening perception of the strong sales had during the fourth quarter.

But that is the best she could muster. The closer must have really hurt. It wasn't that long ago that she was able to point out that $TSLA's gain was less than the others.

Tesla shares gained 37% in the past 12 months, compared with advances of 27% and 22% for the S&P 500 index SPX, -0.12% and the Dow Jones Industrial Average. DJIA, -0.25%

Even reliable negative coverage is having a hard time. It is not only investor sentiment that has improved.