Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[UncaNed]

"I think your Tesla investment has topped out and I strongly advise you to sell now while you can still profit"

said my last "wealth management" investment advisor about 6 years ago...
as I was firing him & his company.

What did he recommend you put that money into instead??

 

[humbaba]

What he recommends you put that money into instead??

Based on a conversation I had recently, Ford. After all, Ford pays a >6% dividend while Tesla pays nothing. Just think: by having the dividend automatically re-invest in Ford just over the last three years you would have made... oh, wait.

 

[StealthP3D]

I was promised a short squeeze. How high does this thing need to go before that happens?

Can we all agree that at the heart of a short-squeeze is rational acceptance (by the short sellers) combined with justifiable panic?

Furthermore, the price rise caused by a short-squeeze has the potential to cause some irrationally exuberant buying by the bulls?

And furthermore, that this irrationally exuberant buying by the bulls might make the momentum players jump in for a quick buck?

How high can we get?

But back to your question. I do think we have been seeing the effects of gradual short-covering since last December. There are probably a few new shorts jumping in this week but not nearly as many as those covering. But to get what I would call a true short-squeeze we need news or the release of Q4 financials that are strong enough to cause all the shorts to rush for the exit at once.

I imagine just the prospect of great Q4 financials could cause a mass exit just before the release but who that seems pretty unlikely at this point (with all the gradual covering that has probably been going on).

 

[Christine69420]

What is the car in your avatar? Is it an old Volvo? It doesn't look American to me.

Yes it's an old Volvo. Not mine but I always liked the look. And it looks like a prehistoric Model X.

I think it's a PV 144 but it may be a 544. I'm not sure. Probably from the 50s.

 

[KarenRei]

Shortville is going nuts about an car fire in an airport garage in Norway or saying how bad they hated Elon's dancing. I haven't seen it yet but they are definitely hoping for some fatalities.

I can't say whether their speculation that the fire was caused by an EV is correct. I can however say that the location of the fire does not appear to be charging spaces.

There's only one set of chargers at the airport according to Plugshare - the upper-left orange (DC chargers) pin, at long-term parking. The others are hotels and the like.

The chargers are outdoors:

The fire, however, was indoors:

Again... still could have been an EV, even though it's not a charging spot; I have no clue where that rumour started. But what I can say is... unless Plugshare is wrong, it's not a charging space.

 

[Tyler34]

Ok. FFS would someone teach me about options. I'm long as hell but it seems like there's gold in them hills. lol

Whatever you do, start small. You could be right on direction and still blow out your account if you go too large

 

[Wooloomooloo]

Where did I ask for advice??? I was hoping to discuss the issues involved in evaluating the risk of the stock dropping between now and then.

Like, anyone actually have an idea of the profit to be reported for Q4? That will be a HUGE factor going forward. It doesn't matter how many cars you sell if you lose money on each one.

With misinformation like that, you probably should not be buying or selling TSLA at all. Tesla doesn't lose money on each car made and hasn't for a long time. Some basic knowledge of Tesla's OpEx, CapEx, revenue and free cash flow will be helpful, not to mention the relationship between SP and earnings. Plenty of companies suffer losses, only for the SP to rise, and vice-versa. The trick is obviously knowing what factors have been accounted for in someone's evaluation, and which have not and may in future.

What you're talking about is basically alchemy. Sure you could have sold your entire TSLA position last December, invested in an index fund from Dec to June then liquidated and invested in TSLA and today you'd be a happy chappy. But even the best traders and analysts don't know exactly when sentiment and real world financials come together to create a bull run, or what might trigger and flight.

I do personally think people GROSSLY misinterpreted the Q3 results and it was very clear then that this would be a $500 stock, so I was surprised it didn't jump more immediately, but the slow realization of the market is finally aligning with reality - but what do I know?

 

[Nocturnal]

Ok. FFS would someone teach me about options. I'm long as hell but it seems like there's gold in them hills. lol

It's easy really.

1. Take some money. 2. Decide you are ok with lighting it on fire. 3. Get lucky, but probably not. I'm new to options this year and have indeed had a few thousand percent return but it's at least half luck. I was pretty sure TSLA was going up, but the when is the tricky part. Before Q3 earnings I had blown through most of my 2k play money and was getting ready to hang it up.

 

[M3Rider]

Ok. FFS would someone teach me about options. I'm long as hell but it seems like there's gold in them hills. lol

Honestly, I'm scared as hell to buy calls now.
Anybody feels differently?

 

[Steve m]

since Tesla is both manufacturer and seller, shouldn’t we compare them with the other car manufacturers and their dealer network?
That is, if it makes sense to compare them.
Chevy has ~5000 dealers in the US?

As a car manufacturer.

As all their dealerships and maintenance departments.

As a gas station network some with minimarts.

As an energy infrastructure company.

As a self driving AI company.

As an internet connectivity company.

And most importantly as a streaming media company.

If all else fails its ceo can give dance lessons.

 

[woodisgood]

So what’s the ACTUAL bear thesis now anyways?

I don’t think there is one that is at all rational at the moment.

That’s what makes the skies appear awfully blue.

 

[Tslynk67]

This just in: Tesla price target raised to $556 by Argus Research, highest on Wall Street

 

[Nocturnal]

Honestly, I'm scared as hell to buy calls now.
Anybody feels differently?

I felt reasonably comfortable buying a couple for next year with some of my option profits but I'm too chicken to spend more than a few hundred bucks on an option. I don't have that kind of liquidity to possibly hold onto an option that is flat or in the red for months/a year.

So what’s the ACTUAL bear thesis now anyways?

I don’t think there is one that is at all rational at the moment.

That’s what makes the skies appear awfully blue.

Mostly fraud from what I can tell. ​

 

[JusRelax]

So what’s the ACTUAL bear thesis now anyways?

I don’t think there is one that is at all rational at the moment.

That’s what makes the skies appear awfully blue.

From what I know, it's that demand completely disappears in Q1. That Q1 is gonna be a sh*tshow. Supposedly bears are maintaining their short position, but have bought/will buy calls to protect themselves from Q4 earnings.

 

[Boomer19]

Look a few posts up. I just covered this. Short answer is no, there is not up-to-the minute short tally data. tl;dr, updated twice a month, but with a two week delay

edit: Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the 2019-2020 Investors' Roundtable

i put up about a years history and added the values as well...earlier today

to reiterate what you have been saying to everyone...

SI is not a leading indicator. it’s a historical reference that can add context.


nobody knows current short interest. think about it, it’s the same as knowing someone’s trades.
do you show your cards when playing poker? choreograph your chess moves?
no.

 

[LJS22]

WTF! We had it at 469.20 at the bell then it moved to 469.06...nooooooooooooo

 

[adiggs]

[


Me too, please. I am holding stock and making good money but no calls money lol.

The "no calls money" idea is a good basis for losing 100%, even with the right investment thesis.

There are numerous "options 101" type articles and courses available on the internet. Those are good places to start. If they're too heavy going, that's a good indication to stay away.

Here's a google search link with a series of articles to start with:
options 101 - Google Search

 

[Cult Member]

EUR 420 today?

Should I name tomorrows price?

 

[dgodfrey]

Well Played TSLA
Retirement secured

 

[Causalien]

Yeah, but the question is "when?" Even if the stock does produce a profit matching the current market cap, if it takes 20 years for that to happen, and the "intrinsic" worth of the company matches the stock price, is it worth waiting that long?

I had stock in a company I worked for. I knew the company would eventually be bought up by a large defense company. But the CEO liked his job and it took some dozen years for the big investors to boot him out to eventually allow a merger to take place and I got my ~100% profit. I calculated it was the same as 5% compound interest. lol

As can happen with emotion driven stocks, the recent string of good news is pushing the stock up irrationally just as the nearly all negative news of early 2019 pushed the stock down so hard, also irrational... well sort of.

The VoltsWagen short squeeze of the century sent the stock from $200 to $900. Market cap aside, it's a good reference percentage wise as $180 bottom was very close to $200. So the maximum could be $900, I'd definitely sell before that though.

Of course, I will re-evaluate each time Nasdaq publishes the shares short data to see where we are at in the short squeeze. But one of the first top I see based on FIbonacci levels is $502.