Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Jack6591]

I haven’t attended The Wharton School, but I do read all of the posts on Tesla Motors Club by Curt Renz and Papafox.

JB Leonard

 

[Artful Dodger]

Where do we see these "trading range boundaries," "resistance" and "support" levels I keep hearing about? Looks like a made-up excuse for every SP pause.

Are those "chartists"right? Or only as reliable as "annalists"?

Read the Wikipedia page on Technical Analysis. Its about 200 words. Then you'll know as much as Wall st.

The edge isn't in their knowledge; its in the way a mechanistic approach to trading eliminates (or limits) one of the biggest sources of bad decision making: Emotions.

Cheers!

 

[skivi]

It looks like we have to wait a little bit longer to reach 500 and beyond.

 

[Fact Checking]

Q1 demand is explosive in China:

Seven Tesla Showrooms in Beijing Sell Over 1k MIC Model 3 In A Single Day​

 

[DrMazeppa]

It looks like we have to wait a little bit longer to reach 500 and beyond.

Or...

 

[mongo]

Q1 demand is explosive in China:

Seven Tesla Showrooms in Beijing Sell Over 1k MIC Model 3 In A Single Day​

Just to clarify, the 7 showrooms' combined sales were over 1k (not 1k each).

 

[Fact Checking]

Just to clarify, the 7 showrooms' combined sales were over 1k (not 1k each).

Yes, that's how I understood it too - and then there's all the other showrooms in China as well.

I.e. every day they are pushing back the waiting list by a week or so.

 

[lklundin]

i don’t get it. Why would you say “the electric car batteries didn’t burn” and then at the same time say “this will help us better understand how to put out electric car fires?”

If the interior of the EVs burned up—that part is essentially identical to ICE cars.

Why so much attention to EVs given the fire was caused by an ICE and the authorities are saying that the EVs didn’t give any trouble when extinguishing the fire?

The fire has destroyed between 300 and 1600 cars (and shut down an airport), so there is going to be changes to (the Norwegian) building codes - and it seems that they take the opportunity to get a better understanding of how electric cars (don't) burn, so they may get even safer as well.

After all, you cannot make changes to codes (for buildings and for cars) merely on the first impression of one experienced fire fighter.

I would not be surprised if as an added bonus, Norway will impose stricter norms on older diesel cars, such as the one that started the whole mess.

Btw, with Norwegian new car sales now being 50+ % electric Norwegian BEV demand just went up a notch...

 

[Right_Said_Fred]

It looks like we have to wait a little bit longer to reach 500 and beyond.

Why?

 

[lklundin]

Key GF4 milestone cleared:

Gigafactory4 on Twitter

View attachment 498195​

Cost of the 300ha land for Tesla: 41 million Euros.

​

That's comparable to what Tesla paid for NUMMI...

 

[Sean Wagner]

According to a new study by Switzerland's leading automotive club TCS [analogous to the AAA], every second respondent [caveat emptor!] is considering buying an EV within the next three years. Reasons not to center around price, charging point availability, and range. See:

Jeder Zweite in der Schweiz will ein E-Auto kaufen | AGVS | UPSA

Just to reiterate my olde saw: no federal subsidies for EV buyers in Switzerland [cantonal policies vary], Model 3 among top ten vehicles sold.

Clearly, G4 is where Tesla will develop and perfect the "machine that builds the machine".

Tesla, the Ultimate Machine Driver

On a side note, it seems that the FT does not like my comments when I estimate the time left till the evaporation of classic car sales in all major markets [I give it four to seven years]. At all. That's quite out of character.

Managing the transition of retrograde aka incumbent companies will be a challenge for even the best of leaders.
As has been remarked upon here, it will probably require some hopefully limited government support.

The problem with building a "small Eurocar", and the reason Tesla hasn't done it already, is that buyers expect them to be cheaper, but with an EV, such a design actually is more expensive to make. They virtually always have vertical rear hatches (to maximize internal space within a limited footprint), which significantly hurts aero, which increases energy consumption and thus means more battery cost for the same range, or less range for a given pack cost - and either way, slower charging (which also increases Tesla's Supercharger infrastructure needs, and thus capital costs).

I'm sure they will eventually make one, of course.

Right now, and it's not easy for me to grock, the vehicles are wrappers. Battery day to the rescue of the information hungry!
Still, can't resist speculation: in due time [and mainly as a fn of cell cost], the addition of a smaller crossover [ie. five-seater Y-] would make a lot of sense for Asia, Europe, and the US coasts.

Tesla halo-effect for Brandenburg region:

German carmakers eye Brandenburg after Tesla expansion push

“They’re asking: What made you interesting for Tesla?” Steinbach said. “We are noticing a pull effect,” Steinbach said about Tesla’s decision.

That's what Carsonight keeps saying about Tesla's Nevada Gigafactory.

Am I just dreaming and completely off base here ?

Beware there might be alternative and individually differing explanations for every one of those causal connections you choose to make.

Solving The Money Problem - today:

Thank you for posting that succinct video.

Only one remark: when I attempt to explain Tesla, I like to drive home the fact my view of the enterprise is as a problem solver in line with their vital mission. This sets them clearly apart.

So following Tesla's execution [as per the video] is obviously of paramount importance, but their capability to identify [!] and solve challenges matters just as much over the long term [what would that be?].

Wall Street doesn't think such thoughts, though.

 

[Artful Dodger]

What's missing from the discussion is the highly unusual volume.
Looking at shares traded in isolation is missing information.

Avg daily volume is 9m ish shares - at a share price of, lets say, 300. 2.7b$/daily volume.

Yesterday we traded 33m shares at avg 490. 16b$ volume. Looking at shares traded in isolation you would conclude that volume was ~3x. It's almost 6x.

Thanks for highlighting the unusually large volume already today. It's gonna be a 'greet dee'...

Using NASDAQ's 'per minute' trading data, yesterday's VWAP was $485.79 / Share.

Right now, TSLA's 30-day avg volume is 10.95M shares, Std Dev 5.78 M

BTW, yesterdays's volume (31,199,390 shares) was No. 2 in the all-time ranking of TLSA trading days. Only Sep 28, 2018 (SEC sues) had higher vol (33,597,290 shares).

Note: Shortzes are expending huge ammo in the early, early Pre-market today. SP is trading in a tight range around the Upper-BB, which should open close to $491.

Cheers!

 

[Aeon]

That's comparable to what Tesla paid for NUMMI...

Well, yes. But this time they are in a hurry and can't wait for a BMW factory to become for sale..

 

[dm28997]

View attachment 498101
Today's $23.08 rise was accompanied by 30 million shares volume and a substantial effort by the shorts with short percentage of selling at 61.5%. Needless to say, with this much price rise and such heavy volume, there was no way the hedge funds could hold TSLA back. Take a look below at the NASDAQ chart. About 11:30am the macros did a nice rise as Trump gave a very reasonable speech regarding a willingness to stop the escalation with Iran. The markets liked it and expressed their like with a quick rally. TSLA lagged behind in its run-up as the downward pressure hedge fund algos churned away, but once TSLA turned upward to join the NASDAQ's rally (on a much greater scale, of course) there was no holding it back.

I think the 2:30pm descent of TSLA was likely energized as a short-selling exercise to get the stock headed downhill, but the appetite for TSLA was significant enough that the SP recovered to 493 and then started heading up towards the close. Only a macro dip towards close (worry about reports of some explosions in Bagdad) kept TSLA from reclaiming most of that lost ground.

My NASDAQ chart shows 498.49 as today's high, just $1.51 under $500. It's entirely possible that $500 will fall Thursday morning, but there will likely be a fight for it.

View attachment 498103
The NASDAQ closed up 0.67% today

View attachment 498104
Shorts were tagged with 61.5% of TSLA selling today

View attachment 498107
Looking at the tech chart, today's climb drove through the upper bollinger band, which stood at 486.61 upon close today.

With TSLA approaching 500, how should you adjust your trading strategy? Quite frankly, it depends upon your level of leverage right now, your exposure to TSLA as a percentage of your portfolio and net worth, your age, your investment goals... so many things. On one hand, a young person in stock only would be reasonable to hold steady and enjoy the excellent appreciation that likely lies ahead in the coming years. On the polar extreme, someone who has been leveraged with options, is not diverse in investments, is close to retirement age, and has just hit his or her retirement goal would reasonably be expected to be in the deleveraging stage now. There's simply no answer that fits all TSLA investors.

Looking at the dynamics of rising and falling share prices, consider the following dynamics currently affecting the stock price:
* The rising price is putting pressure on institutions to buy for fear of S&P 500 inclusion when the stock price is even higher than today
* Rising prices typically cause shorts to cover, mainstream media to reduce the FUD, market-makers to buy in order to delta-hedge, and fear to remain low in investors
------Thus rising begets more rising ---------------
* As long as the big investors continue the furious buying, hedge funds lack the horsepower to turn the stock price around. Their ability to instill fear of falling grows greater when the stock price has risen to extreme heights very quickly. It's nearly impossible to predict when bears can finally get some traction in turning the rally around. Longs want to hold for the likely positive Q4 ER, but if the price of the stock is too high going into the ER, the chance of a sell the event action increase.
-------- Thus there's a limit at some point on how high the SP will go before the Q4 ER ----------------
* Once the stock price starts to decrease, short-selling are likely going to jump in and add steroids to the dip. Big institutional buyers may choose to hold off on the buying and allow the price to dip before they resume.
* The usual FUD increases with a downward motion of the stock price, market-makers delta-hedge by shorting or selling, longs accelerate profit-taking by selling
------- Thus once a downward motion begins there are forces to maintain it ---------------------
* Fortunately, the 4Q ER provides a buffer because once any descent reaches a critical point, longs start buying back in prior to the ER in order to take advantage of the rise that it can generate at a lower price
* Fortunately, once the stock price pulls out of a dip the big institutional buyers resume their buying (if they haven't been doing so to lessen the dip.
----------------- Thus there are forces to get the stock price heading upwards again ---------------------

Many of you already embrace the existence of these forces. What's new is the current role of the heavy accumulators, the likely positive 4Q ER, the rosy outlook for the coming years, profitability, and the likelihood of S&P 500 inclusion. It's good to take some time and consider how each of these forces work in a rally as well as in a dip.

Conditions:
* Dow up 161 (0.56%)
* NASDAQ up 61 (0.67%)
* TSLA 492.14, up 23.08 (4.92%)
* TSLA volume 30.6M shares
* Oil 64.12
* Percent of selling tagged to TSLA shorts: 61.5%

Excellent analysis. Incredible buying pressure and about 4 times normal volume is bullish in my mind.
Another caveat are long term investors like myself who perhaps have profited from this runup and won't sell anymore shares due to tax consequences. Rather than trading anymore I am just holding and going skiing.
Who are the big investors here now?
Thanks again for your hard work.

 

[skivi]

Why?

Because of the Analyst Note from Ben Kallo, but maybe it hasn't this weight on the shareprice.

 

[Christine69420]

In Germany a taxi company owned by Daimler (Mercedes) and BMW have bought 60 Teslas. They could have bought the Mercedes EQC I guess or the BMW i3 but preferred to buy Teslas.

Wirtschaft, Handel & Finanzen: Mobilitätsanbieter Free Now will Angebot auf mehr Städte ausdehnen

Googly translated part of the article:

The mobility provider Free Now, a subsidiary of BMW and Daimler, wants to continue its expansion into other cities in Germany. So the electric car fleet is to be expanded, initially with 60 Tesla vehicles in Hamburg, said Free Now in the Hanseatic city. Last year, 20 percent more passengers in Germany were using Free Now than in the previous year; the number of drivers has increased by 27 percentage points to more than 28,000.

 

[Tslynk67]

I'm seeing this statement from news feed.
"Baird Downgrades Tesla to Neutral from Outperform; Lowers Price Target to $525 from $355."

It doesn't even make sense since the old price target was at $355. How is $525 lower than $355? Ben Kallo is Baird analyst. He's husband of Melissa Lee of CNBC.

Ken’s a long-time Tesla Bull.

So they’ve upped their price target, but recommend some profit-taking right now. That could explain this pre-market nonsense...

Baird Downgrades Tesla (TSLA) to Neutral; Recommends Profit-Taking

 

[hobbes]

The state government of Brandenburg has approved the sales contract for the GF4 grounds: Tesla-Fabrikgelände: Haushaltsausschuss gibt „grünes Licht“ für Kaufvertrag

However, the article says the purchase price will be reviewed. Doesn´t make sense to me, isn´t the purchase price THE central item in such a contract? But maybe there were more complex issues that have now been moved out of the way and a bit of bargaining shouldn´t delay for too long. It was reported before that the purchase price was about one third of that of property in the same industrial area nearby which had already been connected to roads, water electricty and so on.

EDIT: Just saw @Fact Checking posted the news already.

 

[Dreadnought]

Key GF4 milestone cleared:

Gigafactory4 on Twitter

View attachment 498195​

Cost of the 300ha land for Tesla: 41 million Euros.

​

Which are quite favourable terms according to this article: Tesla soll knapp 41 Millionen Euro für Grundstück zahlen
Average price per square meter in vicinity is about three times what Tesla pays. Caveat: They compare with developed industrial zones while the Tesla site is undeveloped.

 

[Silentk]

OT. Fascinating article. If filters in classrooms can have this effect, how enormous will the effect of removing all exhaust fumes from roads be?

Installing air filters in classrooms has surprisingly large educational benefits

Meanwhile, deep appreciation to those on this forum whose knowledge, experience and advice helped me stay the course - starting to relax a little now