Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Driver Dave]

Auto Makers See SUVs, Trucks Charging Electric-Vehicle Sales — The Wall Street Journal

Wall Street Journal still treating Tesla like a side show to the “big guys”

Still amazed that the auto sections of the papers are still run by the local dealership dollars.

Headline should be:

Tesla Sees SUVs, Trucks Charging Electric-Vehicle Sales. All others struggling to get plugged in.

 

[jerry33]

Wait, wait, wait, until fall? They're going to wait three quarters of the year before they begin selling these cars?!

Jeep Cherokee, I thought it was only going to be a few months before they got their software up to date and sell the cars.

It's less than one hundred so I guess it could count as few.

 

[lklundin]

Is Mark BS(Q) copying Jim Cramer in his search for a justification for coming around on Tesla?

TeslaCybertruck on Twitter

- too bad he is going to be out of money either way...

 

[Mike Smith]

Elon just tweeted that feature-complete FSD will be released soon.

Buff Mage on Twitter

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

Elon just tweeted that feature-complete FSD will be released soon.

Buff Mage on Twitter

This perfectly describes how to interpret Elon whenever he uses the phrase "Soon"

John Edward Garcia on Twitter

We are all Darth Helmet

 

[winfield100]

Does anybody know of any source (URL?) where once can see historical charts using VWAP instead of closing price ? VWAP seems to me a much more meaningful measure of value of a stock on a given day rather than the arbitrary value of the last trade of the day.

@ZsoZso
May I suggest the “Accumulation/Distribution line”
It’s a volume weighted number based on OHLC and Vol.
Use a logarithmic graph for SP
Look at A/D line
Jan-June 2013, Jan-June 2017, and May 2019 to present.
Extremely steep slope UP of A/D and SP
However TA is an opaque whathave you, like “scrying the entrails of _____”, but seems to give a vague direction
SO, I’m pretty sanguine about both $800.85 and $2,704.41 as medium and longer term targets
(Dratted NASDAQ rearranged the order of columns of free data)

 

[Cherry Wine]

@Troy initial estimates for Q1 out:

 

[KarenRei]

@Troy initial estimates for Q1 out:

View attachment 498958

Translation: "Troy's baseless wild speculation out".

There's virtually no data so far about how Q1 is going thusfar, 10 days in, except for the fact that tons of orders were shoved off at the end of Q4 and wait times in the US are rising, not falling, with all US orders remaining for the quarter to be squeezed into a 3 1/2 week window.

Troy is a demand-sider, despite how consistently this hypothesis has been proven false. Tesla is not, and has not been, demand-limited, except for occasionally on S/X due to cannibalization by self-competition with the 3. Tesla will sell every single Model 3 they can make, within the bounds of small inventory shifts (probably adverse this quarter due to how great of a job they did draining inventory last time).

Troy will then proceed to repeatedly adjust his estimate up over the course of quarter as the actual data showing how badly his early numbers were wrong comes in, until it's not too far off actual by the end of the quarter, and then pat himself on the back for getting it right.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

@Troy initial estimates for Q1 out:

View attachment 498958

Seasonal data and historical trends? Sounds like he's just using Q1 2019 as a template

 

[JustMe]

@Troy initial estimates for Q1 out:

View attachment 498958

This feels like a guess to me...

 

[KarenRei]

This feels like a guess to me...

He does this over and over :Þ

 

[Singuy]

I wish you were kidding, but...

Yup, these people must think they get internet connection from Jesus.

 

[Chickenlittle]

Elon just tweeted that feature-complete FSD will be released soon.

Buff Mage on Twitter

No buff tweeted it

 

[AudubonB]

Sellers when the stock was cheap during Q2 2019. They might have bought options at the same time or later, which is not reflected here.
View attachment 498817

I (sometimes) miss the endless tsunami of data available on one's desktop Bloomberg & Reuters machines. You could get a year's worth of work-not-getting-done in just a morning!
But, as long as you're there.......'tho mayhap not till Monday morning? - could you hit that sort button to show the list by Position rather than by Change? And include down at least as far as it takes to show where ARK Investment is? Asking for a prurient friend.

 

[defc0n]

This feels like a guess to me...

everyone’s analysis is just that—a guess. 97k doesn’t seem absurd to me but who knows, will know more later in the Q.

 

[KarenRei]

97k doesn’t seem absurd to me

Maybe if you're talking only about Model 3s.

Fremont will probably make in the lower-90s thousand Model 3s, give or take. Depends on how much more improvement can be done in the line without heavy investment, or whether it's tapped out. Of these, I expect somewhat of an inventory rebuild (it was unusual to be able to drain inventory so low), so upper 80s thousand delivered. Assuming China remains relatively inventory-stable (including the ~1000 cars made by GF3 last quarter, which is pessimistic), GF3 deliveries will equal GF3 production in Q1. Maybe somewhere in the 5k-20k range. Total ballpark, ~97k Model 3 deliveries seems reasonable. Add to that, say, ~17k S+X, to ~114k total deliveries.

I could certainly be wrong. But I really doubt I am.

 

[Paracelsus]

In my investing experience, emeritus professors of anything are very rarely good investors. JMO.

I only have a data set of 1 so please know it is biased. But I have been so impressed with that person that I feel inclined to comment. TMC has a very distinguished Professor Emeritus as a long-time member, and he has been an unwavering TSLA Bull with a more sustainable vision for the planet guiding his investments. @Intl Professor has been, and continues to be one of my absolute favorite TMC posters. He joined TMC when I was just lurking after our first investments in TSLA in 2013, and he was one of the catalysts for me to eventually join later simply to be able to converse with him and others here. TMC has helped improve the timing of our investments over the years, for which we are very grateful. I would like to recognize here that was in part due to @Intl Professor 's enthusiasm bringing me closer into the circle. And I would also like to recognize how important it is to embrace and hang on to that vision for a more sustainable Planet that @Intl Professor shares to help ride out the FUD and the manipulation, for each TSLA Long - no matter how small their investment - is helping to make the Planet a better place for future generations.

Cheers @Intl Professor - may our paths cross for some very enjoyable conversations over suds at a Round Table somewhere soon. And may we raise a toast to all of the rest of the wonderful people here on TMC when that long-overdue day finally comes.

 

[SW2Fiddler]

Maybe if you're talking only about Model 3s.

It says “units” - so, redefinable. Add in PowerPacks if the number’s too high for “cars.” Those are “units”

 

[MarcusMaximus]

He does this over and over :Þ

Im not sure why he makes these predictions so early. They’re always way off(pretty much always too low), and there’s no reason to make them with so little info. If he stuck to only the last 2 he makes of every quarter, it’d be fine.

 

[azaz]

So I’ve been tracking what people have been saying about smart summon as a way to measure FSD progress.

reddit post yesterday most people say Smart summon is still nothing more than a party trick