Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Artful Dodger]

If Tesla develops another platform out of China and can announce GF5 sometime this year, there is a solid path to 3 million cars by 2023

Hmm, aren't you low-balling that estimate just a tad? Phase 2 at GF3, and Phase 3 at GF4 are all scheduled to be complete by 2023, so thats:

• Fremont: 875k
  
  • M3: 7k/wk * 50 wks = 400k
  • MY: 7k/wk * 50 wks = 400k
  • S/X: 1.5k/wk * 50 wk = 75k
• GF3/Shanghai: 1m
  • M3: 10k/wk * 50 wks = 500k
  • MY: 10k/wk * 50 wks = 500k
• GF4/Berlin: 1m
  • MY: 10k/wk * 50 wks = 500k
    
  • M3: 10k/wk * 50 wks = 500k

So that's 2.875M cars/year in 2023 as a conservative estimate. We could easily add in another 75k/yr Cybertrucks from Fremont (although by 2023 it could be MUCH higher), and the 3rd phase of GF4/Berlin might be cranking out a new smaller 'Euro-car', a potential Model 2, again at 0.5 to 1.0 M units per year. That's an optimistic est. of ~4m units per year, and its STILL before any new China GF5 is considered.

I do think you're right and there will will be shortly an announcment for GF5/China (maybe next year?) and the Tesla China Design Centre. I look for the Chinese 'City Car' to start a nice round 4m units per year, because:

• it's a simple doubling of Tesla's capacity for planning purposes
• that's how Elon thinks (orders of magnitude)
• well, C-H-I-N-A...

That gets us to 8m/yr capacity in wot, 2024? Elon's stated goal from the 2019Q3 CC was 20m/yr, so they'll need to build more. I see 1 or 2 more in USA (Cybertruck, Semi), and at LEAST 1 more in China (Semi). That's now up to 10m/yr capacity, so what's next? Ideas?

Cheers!

 

[Green Pete]

Quasi-serious question: Were I to set aside a few days this summer at our Lodge to host such a gathering, any show of hands at who to some probability of reality would like to attend and could make the trip? If you ever have wanted to get to Alaska (again, for some of you), maybe this could create the right incentive. So far, the only member we've hosted has been @gene.
Time's short here, as our book fills fast and we've precious few multi-day blocks where we've good availability remaining.

PS: Very nice post about a very nice person.

Is this an open invitation? Or aimed at a particular group here? I mean that sounds amazing. When? Where? How long?

 

[Dutchie]

Elon just tweeted that feature-complete FSD will be released soon.

Buff Mage on Twitter

Doesn't hold much confidence. Sounds irritated to me

 

[Zaxxon]

Early Model 3 owners with EAP are not getting a discount. This sucks.

That ship came and went last year.

In MMO/D&D parlances there are a family of spells known as buffs Status effect - Wikipedia

IMO Musk is insinuating his job is to amplify the powers and skills of his employees.

Just my two cents.

It's a little hard to interpret but if that is the correct interpretation and if people who work for him are able to understand that intent I would considering it a very positive upper management attitude. However it feels a little obscure which makes it less likely to have the proper effect. Were it to work it would be very meta, classifying himself as a buff mage, implying he is a support class for his workforce is empowering the the actual workforce moral, which is in this sense, a buff.

It's a Witcher reference. Geralt is a buff (muscular) mage.

 

[Dutchie]

Got a bit of a scoop for you all that relates to Elon's "Soon." answer to feature complete FSD.

At least two HW2.0 Model X drivers are reporting seeing a $1,000 discount on FSD: FSD for EAP owners, reduced to 3k until 8/16 Two things to infer from this:

1. Tesla's decided they cannot easily upgrade HW2.0 vehicles and is possibly giving them the discount for this reason.
2. And more related to investing, more HW3 exclusive features must be coming soon if FSD discounts are already being applied.

Could also be that it will take a long time before HW2.0 will be upgraded. They are doing the easy upgrades first (HW2.5/MCU2) . This can been seen as giving a discount for not been able to use FSD while waiting.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Quasi-serious question: Were I to set aside a few days this summer at our Lodge to host such a gathering, any show of hands at who to some probability of reality would like to attend and could make the trip? If you ever have wanted to get to Alaska (again, for some of you), maybe this could create the right incentive. So far, the only member we've hosted has been @gene.
Time's short here, as our book fills fast and we've precious few multi-day blocks where we've good availability remaining.

PS: Very nice post about a very nice person.

I'll be at the next one after the Supercharger Network reaches you. The Trans-Canada route was built out in <6 mths, plus I think the Yellowhead route will be next covering from Saskatoon, SK thru Jasper, AB to the coast at Prince Rupert? Then its a ferry to AK.

Elon also did say they plan Supercharger coverage for the Alaska Highway. Personally, I want my 1st trip to Alaska to be in a Tri-motor Cybertruck. I hear there's some nice Lodges up there...

Cheer!

 

[Navin]

Doesn't hold much confidence. Sounds irritated to me

Hahaha. Hahhahahaha. How do you decipher that from a one word answer?? Hahahaha.

 

[ZeApelido]

Doesn't hold much confidence. Sounds irritated to me

Did you go all 420 again?

Pass the Dutchie on the left hand side

 

[ZeApelido]

Right on cue:

Can you please predict $1500 share price in 2020Q3 plz

 

[ZeApelido]

I only have a data set of 1 so please know it is biased. But I have been so impressed with that person that I feel inclined to comment. TMC has a very distinguished Professor Emeritus as a long-time member, and he has been an unwavering TSLA Bull with a more sustainable vision for the planet guiding his investments. @Intl Professor has been, and continues to be one of my absolute favorite TMC posters. He joined TMC when I was just lurking after our first investments in TSLA in 2013, and he was one of the catalysts for me to eventually join later simply to be able to converse with him and others here. TMC has helped improve the timing of our investments over the years, for which we are very grateful. I would like to recognize here that was in part due to @Intl Professor 's enthusiasm bringing me closer into the circle. And I would also like to recognize how important it is to embrace and hang on to that vision for a more sustainable Planet that @Intl Professor shares to help ride out the FUD and the manipulation, for each TSLA Long - no matter how small their investment - is helping to make the Planet a better place for future generations.

Cheers @Intl Professor - may our paths cross for some very enjoyable conversations over suds at a Round Table somewhere soon. And may we raise a toast to all of the rest of the wonderful people here on TMC when that long-overdue day finally comes.

My dear mechanical engineering professor Don Conway was still teaching us while there was already a room named after him.

We need a thread or forum named after Emeritus @Intl Professor here

 

[capster]

Hmm, aren't you low-balling that estimate just a tad? Phase 2 at GF3, and Phase 3 at GF4 are all scheduled to be complete by 2023, so thats:

• Fremont: 875k
  • M3: 7k/wk * 50 wks = 400k
  • MY: 7k/wk * 50 wks = 400k
  • S/X: 1.5k/wk * 50 wk = 75k
• GF3/Shanghai: 1m
  • M3: 10k/wk * 50 wks = 500k
  • MY: 10k/wk * 50 wks = 500k
• GF4/Berlin: 1m
  • MY: 10k/wk * 50 wks = 500k
    
  • M3: 10k/wk * 50 wks = 500k

So that's 2.875M cars/year in 2023 as a conservative estimate. We could easily add in another 75k/yr Cybertrucks from Fremont (although by 2023 it could be MUCH higher), and the 3rd phase of GF4/Berlin might be cranking out a new smaller 'Euro-car', a potential Model 2, again at 0.5 to 1.0 M units per year. That's an optimistic est. of ~4m units per year, and its STILL before any new China GF5 is considered.

I do think you're right and there will will be shortly an announcment for GF5/China (maybe next year?) and the Tesla China Design Centre. I look for the Chinese 'City Car' to start a nice round 4m units per year, because:

• it's a simple doubling of Tesla's capacity for planning purposes
• that's how Elon thinks (orders of magnitude)
• well, C-H-I-N-A...

That gets us to 8m/yr capacity in wot, 2024? Elon's stated goal from the 2019Q3 CC was 20m/yr, so they'll need to build more. I see 1 or 2 more in USA (Cybertruck, Semi), and at LEAST 1 more in China (Semi). That's now up to 10m/yr capacity, so what's next? Ideas?

Cheers!

The battery-electric powertrain opened vehicle design white space and Tesla has utilized that beautifully.

Once FSD fully removes the requirement for a driver, an even larger design white space will be opened. As @jbcarioca observed earlier, Tesla will likely continue to expand on the platform based approach. This approach would allow Tesla to fully utilize that space. This is not to say I expect every GF to make all the designs.

For example, I expect vehicle designs that depart from what we see today that are specialized for particular use cases within the Tesla Network. I think these use cases should make people reassess their assumptions about whether a vehicle, say, made in China could be imported usefully to, say, Europe.

I have some thoughts on the design specifics, but they’re not sophisticated. You could probably do better by taking pictures of various current vehicles then crossing out the driver’s seat section and imagining some smoothing or mash-ups.

 

[Dutchie]

Did you go all 420 again?

Pass the Dutchie on the left hand side

420??? What has that got do with me? I never reacted to Elon's post about taking Tesla private.

No, it is hard of course, to decipher his emotion. But if there was more information then my assumption is that he would have given it. Just one word "soon".... Oh well, interpet anyway you like.

 

[Beltsbear]

Hmm, aren't you low-balling that estimate just a tad? Phase 2 at GF3, and Phase 3 at GF4 are all scheduled to be complete by 2023, so thats:

• Fremont: 875k
  • M3: 7k/wk * 50 wks = 400k
  • MY: 7k/wk * 50 wks = 400k
  • S/X: 1.5k/wk * 50 wk = 75k
• GF3/Shanghai: 1m
  • M3: 10k/wk * 50 wks = 500k
  • MY: 10k/wk * 50 wks = 500k
• GF4/Berlin: 1m
  • MY: 10k/wk * 50 wks = 500k
    
  • M3: 10k/wk * 50 wks = 500k

So that's 2.875M cars/year in 2023 as a conservative estimate. We could easily add in another 75k/yr Cybertrucks from Fremont (although by 2023 it could be MUCH higher), and the 3rd phase of GF4/Berlin might be cranking out a new smaller 'Euro-car', a potential Model 2, again at 0.5 to 1.0 M units per year. That's an optimistic est. of ~4m units per year, and its STILL before any new China GF5 is considered.

I do think you're right and there will will be shortly an announcment for GF5/China (maybe next year?) and the Tesla China Design Centre. I look for the Chinese 'City Car' to start a nice round 4m units per year, because:

• it's a simple doubling of Tesla's capacity for planning purposes
• that's how Elon thinks (orders of magnitude)
• well, C-H-I-N-A...

That gets us to 8m/yr capacity in wot, 2024? Elon's stated goal from the 2019Q3 CC was 20m/yr, so they'll need to build more. I see 1 or 2 more in USA (Cybertruck, Semi), and at LEAST 1 more in China (Semi). That's now up to 10m/yr capacity, so what's next? Ideas?

Cheers!

While I love those numbers, there is no way Tesla will be selling that many M3, while the MY exists at the same sales level. Not unless there is a serious price reduction in the M3 or increased subsidies on it. I am confident Tesla can sell that many MY though. Maybe if the M3 starts at $29k USA (wether it gets there via subsidy or lower price does not matter), that could be possible.

Edit: Put it another way, I think the second car to be produced at GF4 will not be a M3, but something else.

 

[StealthP3D]

I have an odd feeling Tesla can be successful in China...
Haha no my hope is the world marvels at China’s adoption to EV’s and the positive effects of doing so are seen far and wide.

I'm really sad that the US isn't the one to lead the way to cleaner transport. I went skiing today and noticed the stink of gas and diesel in the cold humid air and how it made everything look dirty and gross instead of pure white snow. I dreamed of a day when all the skiers arrive in the mountains in electric transport and everything is pure and clean looking and smelling.

Although a friend of mine was arguing with me over Tesla having a larger market cap than ford and GM combined and I told him it’s simple, Tesla doesn’t even have 1% of the auto market, their growth over the next decade is why the evaluation is there. They will be eating everyone else’s lunch for the next decade...

I bet you totally convinced him, right?

 

[MP3Mike]

Hmm, aren't you low-balling that estimate just a tad? Phase 2 at GF3, and Phase 3 at GF4 are all scheduled to be complete by 2023, so thats:

• Fremont: 875k
  • M3: 7k/wk * 50 wks = 400k
  • MY: 7k/wk * 50 wks = 400k
  • S/X: 1.5k/wk * 50 wk = 75k
• GF3/Shanghai: 1m
  • M3: 10k/wk * 50 wks = 500k
  • MY: 10k/wk * 50 wks = 500k
• GF4/Berlin: 1m
  • MY: 10k/wk * 50 wks = 500k
    
  • M3: 10k/wk * 50 wks = 500k

There you go off in to fantasy land again... GF3 and GF4 are designed at a rate of 150k per "module". GF4 is listed as total capacity of 500k when fully completed with four modules. So slightly less than 150k each.

 

[Fact Checking]

No, it is hard of course, to decipher his emotion. But if there was more information then my assumption is that he would have given it. Just one word "soon".... Oh well, interpet anyway you like.

How about interpreting it ... literally?

 

[StealthP3D]

Does that float number include the shares shorted? They're artificial, but they're real

That's a good point. From a practical supply/demand perspective, shorted shares increase the float. And when GPIF recently decided to stop loaning their shares out, it decreased Tesla's float. Which explains why they received so much criticism for that change in policy. Which is ridiculous if you think about it - a shareholder owns a portion of the company, if they don't want to loan out that ownership to someone else, that's their business (and no one else's)!

 

[SW2Fiddler]

I'll be at the next one after the Supercharger Network reaches you.

And Starlink...

 

[mongo]

Hahaha. Hahhahahaha. How do you decipher that from a one word answer?? Hahahaha.

The font

 

[StealthP3D]

I wish you were kidding, but...

I saw it but those TSLAQ sure are stupid. Even I can tell that's not a mouse - it's too big. Obviously it's a 'possum!