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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
- Start date
Elon estimates 10k-15k per week ultimate M3 demand and 30k-40k / week combined for 3&Y.
davecolene0606
Member
Blast from the past:
just reviewed an excel model from 2012 with projections from Tesla execs (Elon, Deepak) showed the following predictions:
2017 total production 200,000
2018 total production 400,000
2019 total production 600,000
for a seven year educated guess, I’d say they beat the sh*t outta any analysis provided at the time! That’s as far out as this one went but 2020 is gonna blow past those #s and again we ain’t even talkin bout Tesla Energy or FSD!
Can’t wait for this year!
Fire Away!
“It’s the batteries, stupid!”
just reviewed an excel model from 2012 with projections from Tesla execs (Elon, Deepak) showed the following predictions:
2017 total production 200,000
2018 total production 400,000
2019 total production 600,000
for a seven year educated guess, I’d say they beat the sh*t outta any analysis provided at the time! That’s as far out as this one went but 2020 is gonna blow past those #s and again we ain’t even talkin bout Tesla Energy or FSD!
Can’t wait for this year!
Fire Away!
“It’s the batteries, stupid!”
That is a very kind thought! Around 18 summers ago, we greatly enjoyed camping and hiking all around the road-accessible parts of Alaska. We flew in with our camping gear and put over 1500 miles on a rental car, plus some ferry miles. We bumped into old friends at the Anchorage airport, who upon seeing all of our gear supposed that we were moving to Alaska!
I have vowed to myself that our next trip to Alaska will be by Tesla, as I've mostly lost interest in traveling on jet fuel or via ICE. @Artful Dodger has a nice idea - a Cybertruck trip using to-be-constructed Superchargers. Even without Superchargers, a tri-motor CT ought to be able to make the trip. In any case, I hope that we won't have to wait too many years for SCs on the AK highway! Even if some long distance SC routes such as the mid-section of the Trans-Canada or the AK Hwy see only light use, the marketing benefits are quite substantial.
Dreadnought
Member
Even more so if we subtract institutional holdings. Quote from the article posted by Curt:
But it’s important to remember that the “float” of Tesla isn’t as large as you might presume give its 180 million total shares outstanding. Roughly 21% of the company held by insiders — and the bulk of that is in the hands of CEO Elon Musk, who has said publicly on numerous occasions that he has no interest in selling. Throw in institutional ownership of 58% on top of that and you have a steady foundation for the stock underneath the day-to-day volatility.
I wouldn't know how to measure the amount of rebalancing by institutions in general but ARK is quite transparent in their trading and it's a tiny fraction of their position - FWIW. On the other hand, there are 26 Million synthetic shares in addition to the ~37M held by retail. This looks a lot like mostly virtual stocks changing hands over and over again (can't get this picture of shorts selling each other their vapour shares out of my head). Should we ever enter short squeeze territory, the 2.5 days to cover (per Nasdaq 12/31) are meaningless.
Conference calls. Several times he’s said 500k-750k / year for Model 3.
iIRC it was 750k-1.25M for Model Y? I’m positive of the upper number, but not sure if the lower estimate was 750k or 1M.
One case where I don’t agree with Elon. The Y could easily sell 750k but the 3 won’t sell that many at the same time. Not at least at $35k base price.
whitex
Well-Known Member
FSD is what it does on whatever it is running on. It's a poor excuse saying "oh, it's not optimized yet". If you want to use such poor excuses, just say "it's crappy because it's not finished yet". Of course it says nothing about the future, i.e. it doesn't mean it will ever get better. The fact is, it doesn't work the way it was described to customers who paid for it it would work, not even close.
While reddit may not be the most rigorous source of information, do you have any proper sources to show how well summon works in complex environment? Just because there isn't proper evidence of something doesn't mean at all that the opposite is true (so you might not have statistically significant data that summon is crappy, it doesn't mean that it's awesome). The very best proof that Tesla thinks summon is accident prone is the simple fact that they haven't included any accidents caused by summon under warranty (like they did for example added coverage for battery fires for Model S, because they knew those happen very rarely so it made for great PR).
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Carl Raymond
Active Member
How about interpreting it ... literally?
I see. So ready about the same time as the Third Row Tesla podcast...
My dear mechanical engineering professor Don Conway was still teaching us while there was already a room named after him.
We need a thread or forum named after Emeritus @Intl Professor here
I think most of us know being an emeritus professor has little to do with investing, although the initial post did chide a mathematical whiz for lack of personal success at investing. Emeritus just means you're older than dirt. Most helpful to me has been an undergraduate engineering degree with a pretty sound grounding in science. Many here have similar or much more important advantages. It does bug the pee-waddin out of me, as my mother used to say, when our wealth manager called the other day urging immediate sale of 20% of our TSLA stake since it now constitutes 60% of our portfolio instead of the long-standing 40%. What is the emergency? Have we invaded someone else?
dc_h
Active Member
Only one ship out so far, roro anyhow, and the next ship is not due until Jan 17. I understand Canada now has an incentive deadline, so they may be sending a lot of cars north. It also seems reasonable that there was some downtime the first week of the year. Maybe not shut down, but reduced shifts to let people recharge.
Tesla's exponential growth - graphed again -->
Below is a plot of the total number of Tesla's vehicles on the road at the end of each year.
The orange data are from Tesla's annual reports. The blue data are an exponential fit,
where the total production of year X = the total production of year (X-1)^1.815 power.
Knowing Elon Musk like we do - I expect he has this plot in his head and he's more or less working to it.
Keeping up exponential growth like this is going to face some difficult realities like $ and building factories
and developing a wide range of successful and affordable car models and expanding into new markets
and evolving "competition" yadda yadda.
But, I figure the blue dots to the right of the orange dots are as good as any analyst estimates out there.
This is not a prediction - its just an extrapolation.
But here are the numbers that come out of it:
Year Total deliveries
2020: 728,000
2021: 1.3 million
2022: 2.4 M
2023: 4.3 M
2024: 7.9 M
2025: 14 M
2026: 20 million (stated goal). That's why the fleet curve turns over around here.
Cheers-
Below is a plot of the total number of Tesla's vehicles on the road at the end of each year.
The orange data are from Tesla's annual reports. The blue data are an exponential fit,
where the total production of year X = the total production of year (X-1)^1.815 power.
Knowing Elon Musk like we do - I expect he has this plot in his head and he's more or less working to it.
Keeping up exponential growth like this is going to face some difficult realities like $ and building factories
and developing a wide range of successful and affordable car models and expanding into new markets
and evolving "competition" yadda yadda.
But, I figure the blue dots to the right of the orange dots are as good as any analyst estimates out there.
This is not a prediction - its just an extrapolation.
But here are the numbers that come out of it:
Year Total deliveries
2020: 728,000
2021: 1.3 million
2022: 2.4 M
2023: 4.3 M
2024: 7.9 M
2025: 14 M
2026: 20 million (stated goal). That's why the fleet curve turns over around here.
Cheers-
dc_h
Active Member
Sounds pretty optimistic, but hope you’re right.
Re Fremont, I’m not sure how much more capacity they can manage. They said logistics starts getting tough to get trucks in and out fast enough to reload supplies and get out the cars. Love to see Boring company provide more 3D logistics, but not so sure.
The Accountant
Active Member
Controlling OpEx spend is very much influenced by the CFO. One of the most important roles of the CFO is Resource Allocation.
Some CFOs are better at it than others. The more effective CFOs demand aggressive productivity savings in the annual budget, review deviations monthly and hold managers accountable if they miss budgets. The good CFOs know that "what gets measured gets done". One effective way to keep OpEx in check is to have a monthly meeting with all function heads with an OpEx scorecard (outlining monthly spend vs budget and prior year). Any functions with red (overspending) need to explain why they are over-budget and provide a plan to get back on track. This process is very effective especially if Elon sits in a meeting periodically. Not much time is needed to get this working - one hour monthly gets it done.
It's possible that Zack is better at this than Deepak was.
One day it will be that way! Sooner than later hopefully.I'm really sad that the US isn't the one to lead the way to cleaner transport. I went skiing today and noticed the stink of gas and diesel in the cold humid air and how it made everything look dirty and gross instead of pure white snow. I dreamed of a day when all the skiers arrive in the mountains in electric transport and everything is pure and clean looking and smelling.
I bet you totally convinced him, right?
And of course not haha it’s like your pitching gum that cures cancer. People like for things to be the way they always were, however I’m hopeful for the next wave of Americans. Kids love Tesla, they have no previous bias, they just see it the way it is. No kid is going to want a BMW, they see Tesla as a no brainer in terms of benefits. That wave will make the difference in the states.
but in the meantime I’m going to keep writing Texas legislators about blocking Tesla from direct sales
Transcript from the Q2'19 Earnings call:
Daniel V. Galves Wolfe Research, LLC – Director of Equity Research & Senior Analyst
Don't have a great sense of what delivery volumes in China are for Model 3 at the moment. Some sources are around maybe 3,000 or 4,000 per month. What have you seen in terms of order flow and demand since you announced pricing at a local product that gives you confidence that you can get to 3,000 per week type of demand in that market?
Elon R. Musk Tesla, Inc. – Founder, CEO & Director
I -- yes. I mean, we don't talk too much about like detailed price plans, but I mean if you're asking like what do I think the long-term demand for Model 3 is in Greater China region, I think it's about -- I mean from Shanghai Gigafactory, I think it's actually -- long-term demand is about 5,000 a week.
Daniel V. Galves Wolfe Research, LLC – Director of Equity Research & Senior Analyst
Okay. Sounds good. And have you considered potentially sourcing cars to Europe from that China plant at all?
Elon R. Musk Tesla, Inc. – Founder, CEO & Director
No. Our plan is to -- well, to source cars to sort of greater Europe area from Fremont, California, and until we have European Gigafactory operational. And that's -- but that's probably a couple years before -- it's probably 2021 before we have an operational Gigafactory in Europe. And so until that time, we will source from California. Yes. It's like -- this is again speculation. It's my opinion, but so what I think, say, long-term demand is for Model 3, it's probably 15,000 units a week globally, something like that.
Later on he says:
Elon R. Musk Tesla, Inc. – Founder, CEO & Director
But the story for Tesla future is fundamentally Model 3 and Model Y. And I think -- so like my guess is like long-term sales of -- long-term meaning couple years type thing, the demand for -- sales demand for 3 is like on order of 0.75 million units a year, and it's probably 1.25 million units a year for Model Y. So combined, it's like maybe 2 million from those 2 vehicles alone. And then S/X is like maybe 80,000 to 100,000 a year. So it's like 4% or 5% of the volume of 3 and Y. And then you throw like a truck in there, pickup truck and till the semi, it just gets smaller and smaller. So they are great products, but they are -- from a volume standpoint, they're not all that important in the long term.
If you extrapolate those yearly numbers, demand comes out to be ~14,400 Model 3's and ~24,000 Model Y's per week.
Notice how he says himself this is speculation on his part. So I believe that he is being very optimistic here. I hope he's right obviously but I would caution everyone to manage their expectations. He is also referring to long-term sales demand, not production. Ramping up to these levels if the demand is there will take time.
whitex
Well-Known Member
Exactly, or more specifically extrapolations assuming exponential growth, plus some other things such as that the blue line will be tapering off in 2025 instead of some other date say, say 2020, or maybe 2030. Below are some other possible exponential extrapolations. Someone extrapolating in 2014 would have predicted we'd be approaching 10M cars today (red line, based on 2014+2014 sales)This is not a prediction - its just an extrapolation.
Remember, on a log scale like this, each division is 10 times difference.
Krugerrand
Meow
But then factor in seasonality, ships stuck at sea and the fact that Feb only has 29 days instead of 30 and we get back to 83,420 for Q1
Thanks for taking up gauntlet. I’m prohibited from carrying it myself.
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