Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Right_Said_Fred]

There is your dip folks. Have at it

Dip? The one from 344 to 375? Oh wait, that's a dip when you're hanging upside down.

 

[Zero CO2]

One thing I’m trying to figure out. To buy more right now or not to? Been debating that since the $600s but every day I wake up with regret. I’m ready to listen to financial advice from strangers on the internet. So tell me!

same here ... i think patience is in order

 

[sundaymorning]

This "get rich quick" situation is nice and all... but frankly it's scary. I wish it would move a little slower. I've got a few thousand in cash I'd like to spend on another call option, but I don't know if I'll be able to catch it.

Also, it's moving SOOOO fast. Everything I've learned about stock patterns tells me "this isn't normal". I used to be right about 55% of the time anticipating the next day's action, but now? This stock is completely alien to me.

If I'm going to be a millionaire, I'd be more comfortable if it happens over the span of a month than a day.

$1k should have happened last year. Nasdaq is late.

 

[AudubonB]

OT
@DragonWatch
Think of it more like Iain M Bank’s GCU (general contact unit) ship
“Sleeper Service” in his Culture novel “Excession”,
Which spent ~40 years building 112,000 warships and engines and could boost at 233,5000x speed of light
(Musk named a few drone ships after Culture ships.)
Boost phase just starting

Thanks for that. It suggests that after Plaid comes Sleeper Service.
Now...that is beyond funny.

 

[Nocturnal]

Wow, I know I'm crazy and reluctant to sell any but apparently so is everybody else.

 

[TheTalkingMule]

That was quite a MMD!

 

[Favguy]

Wait for it...

There it is, $900. Boom... and it bounced back off.

Edit, lol!! Not for long...

 

[thait84]

Would be sound advice today: GOOG Earnings prove that Robinhood needs to simplify their interface : wallstreetbets

 

[WarpedOne]

That was quite a MMD!

Yeah, it was ... now back @900

 

[imherkimer]

Thinking back on the conference call, something popped out about Elon’s prioritizing retail investor questions, and then commenting how retail investors are better informed on TSLA. He even said some (probably including Gali) had put the pieces of the puzzle together of the battery and production metrics, and were correct.

Could it be that this accumulation is not just institutional whales accumulating, and shorts covering?
Maybe there has been a broad surge of smaller retail and individual investors, among them new Tesla vehicle owners.
Combine this with investors worldwide who are now seeking a compelling company for their funds after fleeing fossil fuels.
These investors will also tend to buy and hold making short squeeze even tighter.

PS. funny how the mandatory morning dip today brought the SP from 885 to 840 before being overwhelmed with buy interest and we were back at 885 in a matter of 10 minutes! And now nearly back to 900......

 

[Dylan]

I'm going to watch the ticker from my model 3 just so that I can buckle up properly

 

[defc0n]

short squeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee

 

[Fact Checking]

1. Tesla has not covered all their properties with solar panels?

Because it generates much more income to sell those solar panels to customers at a margin, than to crowd out paying customers by installing it themselves. Yes, I agree they will do it eventually, but right now it's a distraction.

Tesla is even selling their test drive vehicles for heaven's sake ...

2. Why have they increased their loans for Giga Shanghai?

Because the GF3 loans are a gift from the Chinese government, loans at 90% the central bank interest rate. In China the banking system is dominantly owned and run by the government, so if they offer you a loan to self-finance, you take it.

It's also sound economics: foreign exchange costs and risks from dollar to Yuan cost basis is significant, so you want to take out Yuan denominated loans for costs you pay to Chinese suppliers.

3. Why Musk talks extensively about working capital needs and minimizing time between paying for parts and getting paid for the car?

Because this reduces inventory risk and is sound economics. In Elon's world it's all about cost optimizations. He's a masterful cost optimizer: he financed SpaceX reusable rocket boosters from customer payments and tested them on customer missions ...

Having Gigafactories per continent also reduces political risks, reduces tariff risks and shortens the supply chains to increase the effective rate of innovation through faster iterations.

4.5.6. etc. We could continue.

Please do continue, you have not made not a single valid point so far that I can see.

Tesla was arguably capital constrained in 2018, but they are not anymore.

 

[Fobble]

Really, who the buyer is, whether short seller, option hedger or new money, doesn’t matter. The only real question is, when does big money start to SELL?

Ron Baron just gave his answer. Never. He’s not alone here.

I generally start SELLING a stock I am holding when most of your co-workers enthusiastically talk about owning it, when your neighbors start talking about it, and even your Uber driver starts talking and excited about owning it.
TSLA is in a unique position just because barely any institution holds the stock going into Q4 earning. It had been mainly retailed investors until recently.
Institutions are currently in accumulating mode, and short sellers are squeezed. Until institution holding increases substantially, short interests is at single digit, and everyone on the street and supermarket starts talking about TSLA more to indicate ownership saturation, then it's time to CONSIDER RE-EVALUATING. Not necessary selling still.

 

[UncaNed]

Woke up with the desire to sell a few IRA shares and buy a few call options. Fumbled like a monkey with Parkinsons for a few minutes, when the smoke cleared I'd bought 8 17 APR 20 calls right on the bottom of the knife edge at 9:35. Here it is 10 minutes later and they're up 90% already!

Is my exuberance irrational??

 

[ZachF]

Nine hundo

 

[Chunky Jr.]

Based on after hours, I wa expecting it to drop $20 or so today on some profit taking. WRONG!

 

[T@oo]

Sonic boom past 913.

 

[sundaymorning]

Shorts this morning in front of the Tesla shareholder shop:

 

[Nocturnal]

Woke up with the desire to sell a few IRA shares and buy a few call options. Fumbled like a monkey with Parkinsons for a few minutes, when the smoke cleared I'd bought 8 17 APR 20 calls right on the bottom of the knife edge at 9:35. Here it is 10 minutes later and they're up 90% already!

Is my exuberance irrational??

I'll let you know Friday.