Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Silentk]

Perspective, seen on Twitter today:

Don’t sell - you are here...

 

[heltok]

Elon Musk
@elonmusk
Gentrify Mordor?

Y 77.9%
N 22.1%
298,394 votes · Final results
4:31 AM · Nov 14, 2019·Twitter for iPhone

Gentrify = build a gigafactory
Mordor = place where Tesla is not allowed to sell directly

 

[Prunesquallor]

It’s actually pretty funny. What are Texans going to do when the CyberTruck is built in Texas but they can’t purchase in Texas. Dealers laws keeping Tesla out won’t last for long. All it takes is a tweet.

As others have pointed out, in reality purchasing in Texas is no big deal - on-line just like anywhere else with galleries for test drives. It’s the constant vigil to make sure things don't get worse that’s painful (like the recent effort to shut down service centers).

 

[jerry33]

As others have pointed out, in reality purchasing in Texas is no big deal - on-line just like anywhere else with galleries for test drives. It’s the constant vigil to make sure things don't get worse that’s painful (like the recent effort to shut down service centers).

The main education point is to inform the public that it's not hard to purchase a Tesla in Texas. Many people are under the assumption that you must travel out of state to purchase one. This is the limiting factor for Tesla sales in Texas.

 

[dww12]

Congrats and good luck!

Some know that I quit my job already last December and dedicate my time now fully to the advent of sustainable transportation through different channels like CT, E-Auto news, Twitter and Patreon a.o..

I hope that many who can proudly claim to be now wealthy or will be in the future caused by their successful investment in TSLA consider to support our all mission further as the journey to change the world to the better has just begun. We are early adapters at the end.

What for most here is obvious is for most outside our "bubble" still nonsense therefore I feel like lets be all grateful and think about how we can make an even stronger impact than before to people around us or the environment as such. We all learned a lot at TMC not only about investing but about why BEVs and batteries will win at the end but most outside don't.

Since I am a very long term investor and believe the best is still to come for Tesla and its shares I have time to think how I can maximize my modest contribution but with an increasing stock price my possibilities do increase.

I will be further around here in any case.

This is why we need a rating higher than love.

 

[Artful Dodger]

The uptick rule comes into play if the price drops 10% from the previous trading day's close.

Which, well, it didn't do that.

There's also a circuit breaker mechanism - if the price ends up outside of a certain percentage range of the previous 5 minutes' average price for over 15 seconds, a 5 minute pause is imposed. For TSLA, that's 10% up or down in the first and last 15 minutes of market hours, 5% up or down in the rest of market hours.

Lol. And it's a totally innocent coincidence that the bear attack started with 13 minutes left in the session.

People should be writing to the SEC, and their Senators.

 

[Md90]

Perspective, seen on Twitter today:

Don’t sell - you are here...

View attachment 508122

could be a evening star pattern if we gap down.

 

[Chickenlittle]

Therapy session: Someone wrote a comment a few hours ago about being accosted by friends and family urging them to sell, which resonated with me. I've been unable to keep my mouth entirely shut about owning Tesla over the years. Played possum about exact amounts, but some have the right idea. Those of my closest friends and colleagues who are interested in finance have caught on to this, and used this fact as a great source of entertainment through "420 funding secured", the Joe Rogan interview and the relentless short skepticism and misinformation and other crises since 2013.

At this point, I wish I'd been able to keep my mouth shut, but I'm just not disciplined enough to keep that quiet about something that interests me this much over a 5+ year timeframe. So there's a few work colleagues who keep urging me to sell. Some of it is clearly motivated by concern, given that there's (presumably) a lot of money on the line, and I've actually trimmed my position somewhat, to have a small hedge against macro crisis or other unexpected catastrophe.

But for one or two, it's almost as if they wish me to sell in order to hedge their own egos in case it turns out that I'm right, and that a stabilization in market cap will not be reached for years yet. And if that should happen, that they could at least console themselves with "well, but marvinat0rz sold too, so no one could have seen it coming". It distinctly feels like there's some envy there as well. Part of me just wants to say "well, you've had every opportunity to make similar investments but you haven't; and even then you would have bailed out five years ago and probably had ulcers -- what makes you believe that your judgement is better than mine and that this is good advice?"

But of course I won't say that, both because it's a douchebag move and because I can't stand the idea of both being out a lot of money and having made very hubristic comments in my social circle when the next recession hits, or if there is some (heaven forbid) unexpected disaster.

It's actually not so easy to be on this kind of emotional rollercoaster, which I'm sure plenty of contributors to this forum know. You really need to have been there to know. The stakes are high, and this is not appreciated by people sitting on the sidelines. No one in my social circle has the stomach for risk that I do, so there's not a lot of people to share this with. Of course it's not some "waaah waah, poor us" situation, but there's an emotional aspect of investing for the long term that's poorly appreciated. Would be better to just tune it out, but it's not so easy when it's on the front page of even my small-time Norwegian economic newspaper every other week.

Thanks for listening, felt good to get this off my chest

I found two reactions back in 2013 from “friends”. 1. Why didnt you tell m of opportunity. Like I am responsible to do their market research. Or 2. Extreme jealousy. Very quiet these days except for smile on face. Best tactic

 

[elasalle]

Hard sometimes to stay the course and look at the big pic ..
so whats coming (notes for self and wifey ..)

Giga China
Model Y
Battery Day
S&P
Giga TX (new)
No real Competition (yet)
In car app sales
Internet Connectivity sales
Insurance
Recent Released AI seems to show some real good progress
1M + cars
Solar/Energy ramp up

World transitioning to Renewables (FCU credits, EU fines etc)

Conclusion: Don't sell and regret. This is 4-5-10 year game

 

[EinSV]

Elon Musk
@elonmusk
Gentrify Mordor?

Y 77.9%
N 22.1%
298,394 votes · Final results
4:31 AM · Nov 14, 2019·Twitter for iPhone

Gentrify = build a gigafactory
Mordor = place where Tesla is not allowed to sell directly

Interesting ....

Another possibility:

Mordor = heart of fossil fuel country

 

[Krugerrand]

Toyota has a truck plant in San Antonio which is very close to Austin. Could be getting work force and talent from Toyota. Cybertruck secured.

Nobody working at Texas Toyota would know the first thing about building CYBRTRCK, except perhaps the workers who put the cup holder in.

 

[CyberDutchie]

As for workforce, housing, available land... all could be easily provided by DFW, Houston, San Antonio or Austin.

If solar energy is a major consideration, Houston probably comes in last, all others relatively equal. All have access to plentiful wind-generated energy.

Houston has the Port, but is more susceptible to hurricanes and tropical storms.

All are multi-cultural and quite liberal politically. Austin is regarded as the hippest (e.g., music, SXSW) which seems important to Musk given his comments about Berlin. And of course, it’s the capital so might have higher political leverage. That's my bet if any of this turns out to be true.

Austin, TX has a large high-tech/semiconductor industry with companies like National Instruments, Freescale, Cirrus Logic, headquartered in an area of town referred to as “Silicon Hills” (versus Silicon Valley in the San Francisco Bay Area). So plenty of highly skilled engineers available.

 

[ProfTournesol]

Interesting ....

Another possibility:

Mordor = heart of fossil fuel country

Detroid or Texas

 

[Chickenlittle]

Funny story about SPYX. I learned about it in November 2018, and decided to swap a portion of my S&P500 index funds in my 401k for it. I sold about $100k of the index in my 401k, transferred the proceeds to my "Brokeragelink" account - part of the 401k that allows trading a larger list of funds - and entered a market buy order for as many shares as I could afford.

The next day I got a note from Fidelity saying I need to address the negative cash balance in my account. WTF?! I told them it isn't a margin account, so it shouldn't even be possible to have a negative balance, and why would they even accept an order that caused a negative balance, and and... They could not explain how it happened, basically just said it is what it is and you need to fix it immediately. I had to sell about $1k of SPYX to cover it.

Eventually I figured out what happened on my own: when I entered the order, the (current price * number of shares) was less than the cash I had available, so Fidelity accepted the order. My single $100k order, being a market order, blew through part of the order book and caused the price to increase about 1.5%, and Fidelity stupidly continued to execute the order at higher, unaffordable prices.

I was absolutely dumbfounded. I had assumed any ETF was big enough to be completely immune to influence from a peon like me. But SPYX is a very small fund - only $462M assets today, and must have been even smaller back in 2018. So my $100k order was enough to move it noticeably. The bump was clearly visible on the daily chart, right at the time I placed the order, so I'm pretty sure it was me. It's my claim to fame as a fairly small-time investor - I single-handedly moved the price of an ETF by 1.5%!

The moral of the story is, be careful with SPYX since it's a tiny, tiny fund. I will never use a market order with that ETF again.

I see two lesions here. 1. I never use market orders only limit orders and 2. Don’t use fidelity. My experience with them terrible.

 

[Rb48888]

Correct, someone is selling in large volumes (compared to available liquidity) on Frankfurt Xetra to keep the TSLA price down - this could be in coordination with the Nasdaq open in about 8 minutes for a bear attack.

There is no news anywhere, manufactured or otherwise, to justify such a move. I believe hedge funds that wrote calls might be worried about this Friday's expiry and started a price and market manipulation bear attack when TSLA was getting close to $970 yesterday.

Note that the market used by the bear attack is the Xetra exchange, not Frankfurt:

View attachment 508089

Note the very high volumes, while both Frankfurt and Stuttgart exchanges barely registered any trading. So the short who launched this short attack is working through Xetra to have maximum impact while using one of the least liquid European exchanges that trades Tesla.

Edit, here's how the illegal market manipulation bear attack transitioned over to Nasdaq pre-market trading:

View attachment 508090

The first chart is 4 minutes into Nasdaq pre-market trading which started at 4am ET - the chart lined up below is Xetra, 10am CEST at the same time:

• The short attacker, shortly before Nasdaq trading opened, started closing the short position (the bounce-back), and volume died down.
• There was no genuine, legitimate selling pressure on Xetra - the whole point was to depress the TSLA price in Nasdaq open through the use of a single low liquidity European exchanges, using just around 70,000 shares of volume.
• On Nasdaq volume is now lower than the European one - I suspect the bear attacker is using limit orders to keep the price fixed at significantly lower prices than yesterday's close, to establish a negative sentiment going into the open.

#2nd edit, 15 minutes more of the same charts:

View attachment 508091

Here you can see from the Xetra volume that whoever manufactured that price dip, very likely reversed the Xetra short position almost completely and moved operations over to the Nasdaq pre-market. While we are guessing here, regulators have access to transaction logs and can identify whether it was the same trading entity creating the dip and then recovering the short position.

Also note how Xetra volume effectively dried up after this price manipulation event - suggesting that whoever did this didn't have any legitimate EU investment purposes, but the sole purpose was to manipulate the Nasdaq early-hours opening price.

There is very few legitimate reasons for such trading activity - pretty much the only purpose is to manipulate and distort the market.

#3rd edit, this is yesterday's "$100 TSLA flash crash" event:

View attachment 508095

That is a 30sec chart from Nasdaq on 02/04/2020, where unknown entities manipulated the TSLA price at around 15:49 ET and the surrounding minutes to drop $100 in a short period of time, by using aggressive, abusive market orders or far-below-bid sell limit orders to 'mark down the price' without any real intention to sell effectively.

In this case too no rational investor in Tesla securities would execute trades in this fashion (because they'd lose tens of millions of dollars executing sell orders in such a poor fashion), and there was no Tesla or macro news driving this action.

Time for Tesla shareholders to file SEC complaints I suspect. European regulators should have no trouble finding out who was selling short those shares well below yesterday's market prices.

Here's the place to file a SEC Investor Complaint - European shareholders can file complaints too:

SEC Investor Complaint Form​

After filling out personal details, I'd suggest a variant of this for the "Tell Us About Your Complaint" field:

On or around February 5, 2020, 4am ET, a "short and distort" campaign was launched against Tesla (TSLA:NASDAQ) investors in European trading, on the low liquidity Xetra exchange (TL0:XTRA), and on the Nasdaq early-trading system.

The purpose of this attack was to illegally manipulate the Nasdaq early trading opening price, by unknown parties suspected to be options writers for $800+ strikes on Friday's 02/07 TSLA options expiry series.

A timestamped, annotated summary of events can be found at this link:

https://teslamotorsclub.com/tmc/posts/4451429/

The link also contains description of the "$100 TSLA Flash Crash" market manipulation event that occurred at around 02/04/2020 15:49 ET, when unknown parties executed large and deliberately ineffective order flow in an effort to mark down the TSLA price and trigger "stop-loss" orders, which caused harm to TSLA investors.

All of these abusive, illegal actions have harmed the market value of my TSLA shares or options.​

Only file a SEC complaint if you agree with the contents, of course!

Also note that even if this SEC administration decides not to inquire into these market anomalies, there's an election at the end of the year and the next administration might. All investor complaints have to be archived and stored indefinitely by the SEC I believe.

Lol. And it's a totally innocent coincidence that the bear attack started with 13 minutes left in the session.

People should be writing to the SEC, and their Senators.

Thanks @Fact Checking . Because of your hard work, it took me less than 3 minutes to file a supporting complaint with the SEC

Holding my breath now for the press release that the SEC is opening an investigation into opening an investigation. I’m sure all of the reputable news orgs will cover it. /s

(Seriously though, thanks again. We can only be sure nothing will happen if we do nothing)

 

[TheTalkingMule]

Volume over/under today 47M?

+6.5% in SP?

 

[viridi]

I am not sure why (other than the fact that he is consistently negative) Mark Tepper gets time on CNBC to discuss TSLA:

Strategic Wealth's Tepper: Tesla is the most dangerous stock in the S&P 500 right now

 

[jerry33]

Detroid or Texas

I don't believe there is much of a choice here unless you want UAW workers.

 

[dw4ngg]

I am not sure why (other than the fact that he is consistently negative) Mark Tepper gets time on CNBC to discuss TSLA:

Strategic Wealth's Tepper: Tesla is the most dangerous stock in the S&P 500 right now

Tesla is in the S&P?

 

[Dan Detweiler]

Tesla is in the S&P?

Hence the stupidity.

Dan