Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Fact Checking]

If you actually look at the end to end numbers you will find EVs are not much more efficient than ICE when the entire process from end to end is considered.

Again, you are wrong, if you look at proper peer reviewed well-to-wheel energy efficiency studies then even "worst-case" 100% coal powered EVs are far more efficient and produce far less local pollution than gasoline cars.

(A very short summary is that coal plants are, in essence, high efficiency (50-60% energy efficient depending on technology) steam engines with excellent thermodynamics, and average electricity transmission and EV drive train losses are more than counteracted by the 10% regenerative braking claw-back, while the crude oil extraction, transportation and refinery process combined with an inefficient ICE engine alone is less than 20% energy efficient even for econocars - and less than 10% energy efficient in performance ICE vehicles such as Porsches that Tesla is displacing.)

This is a simple scientific fact that has been rehashed here numerous times already, if you want to dispute it please take it to other forums.

 

[Mich]

Who didn't see this coming when the factory reopened today?

the traders at Frankfurt. I loaded my calls on Friday...

We are 29.5% off the ATH. Will we beat this today? Oh, sorry, its its not super bulls only.

 

[ev-enthusiast]

Reuters out with an article on Tesla getting subsidies for their Gigafactory Berlin (link):
"In my conversations with Elon Musk I have always made clear that there are no privileges but also no discrimination," Germany's economy minister Peter Altmaier told newspaper Welt am Sonntag in an interview.

 

[JBRR]

This is a must watch.

 

[FrankSG]

Don't worry too much about it. The italians will come around to save the day with the Fiat 500e...after they finish down-selling it of course.

• "Fiat Chrysler CEO: Please don't buy our Fiat 500e electric car."
• "Marchionne: Electric cars not worth investment."
• "FCA's Marchionne says accelerating EV sales prematurely will endanger the planet."
• "Fiat-Chrysler chief Sergio Marchionne doesn't think electric cars, Tesla are viable."

What a jokester that Marchionne. May he rest in peace.

 

[Fact Checking]

This is a very uncommon gap up today. I'm playing the Monday gap up, but this time it was not up in Frankfurt the hour before premarket opens and it was up from the very beginning.


I typical Monday gap up starts in Frankfurt. Not sure what this means.

I was monitoring both Frankfurt (FWB) and Xetra (XETR) since they opened, and there was a partial gap-up on Frankfurt already from the $745 Nasdaq after-market closing price on Friday, to around $755 - a +1.3% increase.

So European investors probably already suspected that TSLA sentiment is possibly going to be positive today, but (which is the typical multi-year pattern) they under-estimated the magnitude of the move. Volume was low to average, just a couple of thousand shares.

Also note that the Nasdaq open coincided with improvement in macros by about +0.3%, which helped the rise. The first ticks on Nasdaq pre-market trading were around $755, very close to where Frankfurt and Xetra was at that point.

Then there was a big wave of buying and TSLA rose together with macros, but there is a distinct TSLA-bullish component (+5%) which goes well beyond the macro improvement.

There was no gap-up if you look at the raw Nasdaq data: the ticks were mostly continuous from $755 to ~$785, but it is strong buying pressure that might be misinterpreted as a gap-up when looking at coarse data sources such as the Yahoo Finance pre-market data feed.

My interpretation is that investors were waiting for the Nasdaq pre-market to open to make their move, both in a TSLA-bullish and macro-bullish fashion. Trading too early on European exchanges needlessly slips the price up due to low TSLA liquidity there - which is generally not the intention of bigger investors.

But yes, I agree that this is looking pretty bullish so far: and what is impressive is that all this TSLA price action occurred outside the busiest ~2.5 hours of Nasdaq pre-market trading, 80k shares traded in the first two hours of Nasdaq pre-market trading counts as high volume. Most of the pre-market liquidity will reach TSLA only in about an hour (7am ET).

 

[KarenRei]

That's wrong, I was monitoring both Frankfurt (FWB) and Xetra (XETR) since they opened, and there was a partial gap-up on Frankfurt already from the $745 Nasdaq after-market closing price on Friday, to around $755 - a +1.3% increase.

So European traders already suspected that TSLA sentiment is possibly going to be positive today, but (which is the typical multi-year pattern) they under-estimated the magnitude of the move. Volume was low to average, just a couple of thousand shares.

Also note that the Nasdaq open coincided with improvement in macros by about +0.3%, which helped the rise. The first ticks on Nasdaq pre-market trading were around $755, very close to where Frankfurt and Xetra was at that point.

Then there was a big wave of buying and TSLA rose together with macros, but there is a distinct TSLA-bullish component (+5%) which goes well beyond the macro improvement.

There was no gap-up if you look at the raw Nasdaq data: the ticks were mostly continuous from $755 to ~$785, but it is strong buying pressure that might be misinterpreted as a gap-up when looking at coarse data sources such as the Yahoo Finance pre-market data feed.

My interpretation is that investors were waiting for the Nasdaq pre-market to open to make their move, both in a TSLA-bullish and macro-bullish fashion. Trading too early on European exchanges needlessly slips the price up due to low TSLA liquidity there - which is generally not the intention of bigger investors.

But yes, I agree that this is looking pretty bullish so far: and what is impressive is that all this TSLA price action occurred outside the busiest ~2.5 hours of Nasdaq pre-market trading, 80k shares traded in the first two hours of Nasdaq pre-market trading counts as high volume. Most of the pre-market liquidity will reach TSLA only in about an hour (7am ET).

It's always dangerous to make large moves on Frankfurt regardless. It's a low-volume market, and trader sentiments are not necessarily reflective of the broader market.

 

[DrJohnM]

Frankfurt at 721,90 EUR +6,47 % +43,90 EUR

Its a US stock, so you always need to convert to USD at spot rates to do an accurate % delta (the EUR value can change just because of FX changes)

 

[KarenRei]

Is it weird that I'm really excited about meeting with a tax advisor today?

 

[Dan Detweiler]

Can somebody give me a list of the top 10 contributors of this forum (People who are very knowledgeable about Tesla/TSLA) The rest of the people on this forum I'm going to ignore. I don't want to waste my time going through pages with no helpful/useful information. Thanks

Sorry dude, that's the way it works around here. You want the @KarenRei and @Fact Checking types...you have to wade through the smart a**es like me. Builds character. LOL!

Dan

 

[theschnell]

On Friday I was thinking about playing a weekly call this week. Ultimately decided not to. Kind of regretting that now, but one thing I noticed that I found very interesting was that both last week and this week there is a relatively large block of $900 puts expiring. I’m wondering if both last week and this week, if market makers who sold those puts are moving the market up early in the week, buying to close those put options they sold, then pushing the price back down?

If we do a repeat of last week (above $900 then quick drop back down), I’m going to be very suspicious that those $900 puts are a big factor.

 

[Fact Checking]

Is it weird that I'm really excited about meeting with a tax advisor today?

Did you talk to him (her) since early last year, which time frame was probably less glorious to TSLA options strategies?

 

[FrankSG]

We're back to the 8xx!

Let's see whether we can go through it even faster this time. Last time was about 4.5 hours worth of pre-market trading iirc? So if we're at $900 by 11AM, we'll have beaten last time.

 

[Fact Checking]

On Friday I was thinking about playing a weekly call this week. Ultimately decided not to. Kind of regretting that now, but one thing I noticed that I found very interesting was that both last week and this week there is a relatively large block of $900 puts expiring. I’m wondering if both last week and this week, if market makers who sold those puts are moving the market up early in the week, buying to close those put options they sold, then pushing the price back down?

If we do a repeat of last week (above $900 then quick drop back down), I’m going to be very suspicious that those $900 puts are a big factor.

See my options open interest analysis post here: this week's "put barrier" is significantly weaker than last week's, and the number of open calls IMO isn't that high either to trigger existential angst at the hedge funds and investment banks who wrote them - so the ... criminal energy to risk market manipulation might be lower this week.

Furthermore, this week is a "minor" expiry week, it's neither a monthly option nor a LEAP expiry. So like in most of the previous "minor" weeks this year the MM's might go with the delta flow: the resulting delta hedging expense was probably already paid for by the significantly elevated put and call premiums - may the price go where investors want it to go.

Not advice though.

 

[FrankSG]

Furthermore, this week is a "minor" expiry week, it's neither a monthly option nor a LEAP expiry.

Last week wasn't either of these either though. Do we know what open interest was at the start of last week? Is it possible that a bunch of people buying options on Monday will make it another massive expiry week? Would this be nullified by MMs having learned from their mistake and pricing options higher this time?

 

[anthonyj]

$1,880 calls are gonna go ITM and y’all gonna mark this as “funny” just like you did when I said buy $600 calls a few months ago

 

[FrankSG]

$1,880 calls are gonna go ITM and y’all gonna mark this as “funny” just like you did when I said buy $600 calls a few months ago

I always mark your posts funny, but today I don't dare to. Informative it is.

Care to share when you think they'll go ITM?

 

[pz1975]

Google Could Acquire Tesla For $1,500 Per Share On Its Way To $2 Trillion Stock

Article in Forbes from “contributor” Trefis Team.

 

[Cobbler]

An 'older' video about energy storage and how a small increase in energy density of Lithium ion cells can disrupt the trillion-dollar energy market.
Don't forget: it's not just cars and FSD. Tesla Energy will be a huuuuuge revenue boost the coming years.

Tesla will be a trillion dollars worth of a monster company coming years!

 

[theschnell]

See my options open interest analysis post here: this week's "put barrier" is significantly weaker than last week's, and the number of open calls IMO isn't that high either to trigger existential angst at the hedge funds and investment banks who wrote them - so the ... criminal energy to risk market manipulation might be lower this week.

Furthermore, this week is a "minor" expiry week, it's neither a monthly option nor a LEAP expiry. So like in most of the previous "minor" weeks this year the MM's might go with the delta flow: the resulting delta hedging expense was probably already paid for by the significantly elevated put and call premiums - may the price go where investors want it to go.

Not advice though.

Thanks. I think I had missed your other post.

Despite the number of options being significantly smaller than last week, there is still a lot of money at play. I think the thesis may still hold, although perhaps not as dramatically as last week.