Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Artful Dodger]

Can somebody give me a list of the top 10 contributors of this forum (People who are very knowledgeable about Tesla/TSLA) The rest of the people on this forum I'm going to ignore. I don't want to waste my time going through pages with no helpful/useful information. Thanks

Well, Kanye West, obviously...

Spoiler: Managing volume

Use the "Follow" feature, then build your own list of links to your 'always read' contributors. Otherwise, this becomes TSLAQ.

Cheers!

 

[elasalle]

Can somebody give me a list of the top 10 contributors of this forum (People who are very knowledgeable about Tesla/TSLA) The rest of the people on this forum I'm going to ignore. I don't want to waste my time going through pages with no helpful/useful information. Thanks

Sure,(I have the list)
But 1st you need to follow me for a couple of weeks.

 

[Fact Checking]

Spoiler: OT: The purpose of income taxation

Seriously, though, I view taxes as a form of charity - a quite suboptimally managed one, sure, but paying them as contributing to my country being the sort of place that treats people well, gives everyone opportunity, and runs smoothly.

I view taxes as rent paid to be allowed to be part of a modern, prosperous economy - the more my income (which in large part derives from being an integral participant of a vibrant economy), the higher the taxes, obviously. Charity is a minor part of it.

Nobody bats an eye when the Apple App Store is asking for a 30% tax on revenues, to be given access to a very lucrative franchise. Countries only asking for a share of profits is a pretty good deal in comparison.

 

[gerebgraus]

My hypothesis is that Tesla "licenses" the DBE process to Panasonic, since Panasonic has been a good partner over the years, and Panasonic still has good supplier relationships (like Sumitomo) that supply the other components of the cell. This would help the mission by having a trusted partner that can expand the battery supply with Panasonic's customers, without impacting Tesla's supply.

This would accelerate the mission (by forcing the cost of batteries below the $100/kwh point, making BEV's cheaper to build than ICE's) and remove the ramp-up lag that would be involved with vertically integrating the cell production process (from the gigafactory investor day, we learned that the Panasonic cell production machine took up an entire room).

Building the cells themselves would require developing their own cell production machines and setting up supplier agreements with raw material suppliers and/or specialty chemical suppliers. It's not impossible, but it is an unnecessary burden unless Panasonic is unable to integrate the DBE process. Much faster to just have Panasonic license the tech and sell back the cheaper cells.

This is a possibility. Although Tesla might not want to share all cell IP with Panasonic. Of course not everything Panasonic has in Reno is outdated. So they might do a joint production whereTesla does whatever is new and Maxwell, and Panasonic does the rest. They would dismantle the ovens, etc. needed for the wet electrode tech, and that would free up a lot of space.
One mystery was that there is no expansion of the Giga Nevada building while Tesla's battery need with the Model Y and energy is increasing. Some solution like that could expand Giga 1 cell production with the current building.

 

[jerry33]

I get what you are saying. But the Tesla share price is much more complex than just Tesla building cars and selling them. Tesla continues to borrow money to grow and that creates debt which must be paid every quarter. If something beyond Tesla's control prevents them from selling all the cars they make or making the number of cars they need to sell to make the loan payments, they burn cash. The Corona virus is an example of things beyond their control. If they have to close the Shanghai factory for a few weeks, what does that do to their profits and price?

Given that workers are already returning, as shown in photos, isn't that kind of disingenuous?

 

[Cohiba]

Should I buy shares rn? and sell in couple hours

Yes. No.

 

[Singer3000]

It’s faintly hysterical being a Tesla shareholder these days. Just saw the price on premarket was $815 and I couldn’t remember if that was good or bad or what number it was supposed to start with.

I did have what I’d call a proper weekend but still...

 

[theschnell]

I think you might be confusing the puts and calls?

View attachment 509822

Oh shoot! I think you’re right! My bad. Well now I think it’s less likely we break and hold $900. We shall see.

Edit: maybe I was looking at the $785s? Regardless, I was clearly wrong about $900.

 

[Sudre]

Early morning is as interesting as last Monday. I wish the rest of us were allowed to naked short then cover on Monday and Tuesday after our Friday massive profits. Think about it. You’d get to make up shares without actually borrowing, dump them at $900 then cover starting at $750. Realistically I can play this game and pick pennies off the floor but that steam roller is really large to look at.....but it’s a lot more than pennies with these moves.

 

[FrankSG]

Early morning is as interesting as last Monday. I wish the rest of us were allowed to naked short then cover on Monday and Tuesday after our Friday massive profits. Think about it. You’d get to make up shares without actually borrowing, dump them at $900 then cover starting at $750. Realistically I can play this game and pick pennies off the floor but that steam roller is really large to look at.....but it’s a lot more than pennies with these moves.

Well, at least it's not $750 anymore. Currently trading @ $800.

I'm actually suspicious that MMs are capping the pre-market run up around $800 right now, so that they can cover at lower prices as soon as the market opens when volume is higher. @Papafox also often talks about being suspicious of short shenanigans during pre-market hours.

 

[dw4ngg]

Well, at least it's not $750 anymore. Currently trading @ $800.

I'm actually suspicious that MMs are capping the pre-market run up around $800 right now, so that they can cover at lower prices as soon as the market opens when volume is higher. @Papafox also often talks about being suspicious of short shenanigans during pre-market hours.

Once you start being skeptical, you can’t really stop.. but it helps w conviction and holding thru otherwise unexplainable volatility, so there’s a silver lining at least

 

[j6Lpi429@3j]

Nobody bats an eye when the Apple App Store is asking for a 30% tax on revenues, to be given access to a very lucrative franchise.

As a game developer I can assure you that YES we bat eyelids furiously at this 30% tax, and are not happy about it!

 

[jerry33]

Seriously, though, I view taxes as a form of charity

Typically though, the President/Prime Minister/etc. of a country doesn't run off with all the funds the way the President/CEO/CFO/etc. of a real charity does (though that might not be the case this time in the U.S.).

 

[DrJohnM]

This is a possibility. Although Tesla might not want to share all cell IP with Panasonic. Of course not everything Panasonic has in Reno is outdated. So they might do a joint production whereTesla does whatever is new and Maxwell, and Panasonic does the rest. They would dismantle the ovens, etc. needed for the wet electrode tech, and that would free up a lot of space.
One mystery was that there is no expansion of the Giga Nevada building while Tesla's battery need with the Model Y and energy is increasing. Some solution like that could expand Giga 1 cell production with the current building.

The cell capacity also helps. How to build a second GF for free - double the Wh/kg

 

[Chickenlittle]

Can somebody give me a list of the top 10 contributors of this forum (People who are very knowledgeable about Tesla/TSLA) The rest of the people on this forum I'm going to ignore. I don't want to waste my time going through pages with no helpful/useful information. Thanks

Your the definition of lazy

 

[jerry33]

One mystery was that there is no expansion of the Giga Nevada building while Tesla's battery need with the Model Y and energy is increasing. Some solution like that could expand Giga 1 cell production with the current building.

The problem with GF1 is workers. There is little housing due to the water issue so people are not moving there.

 

[HG Wells]

Typically though, the President/Prime Minister/etc. of a country doesn't run off with all the funds the way the President of a real charity does (though that might not be the case this time in the U.S.).

They don't have to run off. They can keep all they want. It's an honor system for many charities and religious organizations.

 

[Fact Checking]

That's true, but it appears February 21 is the "big one":

date          open interest # of contracts, each contract is 100 shares

2020/Feb/07:  PUTs:   237,522 ; CALLs:   182,918  <-- these expired last Friday
2020/Feb/14:  PUTs:    96,471 ; CALLs:   115,780  <-- this week's expiry
2020/Feb/21:  PUTs:   309,790 ; CALLs:   136,461  <-- next week's expiry
2020/Feb/28:  PUTs:    23,228 ; CALLs:    29,118
2020/Mar/06:  PUTs:    11,245 ; CALLs:    13,336
2020/Mar/13:  PUTs:     4,468 ; CALLs:     6,318
2020/Mar/20:  PUTs:   214,018 ; CALLs:   126,519
2020/Mar/27:  PUTs:       350 ; CALLs:       585

In comparison February 14, this Friday, is a minor expiry. This options series was only created on January 2, when we were well on the way to $450, and most of the open interest was created in the past 2 weeks I believe.

February 21 on the other hand was created in early December, with the stock price in the $330s, when many call writers probably assumed that $400-$800 strikes are lottery tickets bought by fools.

My hypothesis (without firm proof) is that written calls in the $700-$900 range were rolled over to last week's expiry, where the (short) hedge funds who wrote them pulled the Xetra-Nasdaq-Marketwatch stunt to get rid of their weakly hedged liability. A lot of calls (over 100,000 contracts) expired worthless last week - and this week's open interest looks more naturally grown and not nearly as many calls are in the relevant price range, with sufficiently juicy elevated-IV premiums paid to genuine market makers to assume the risk and to finance the delta hedging.

Again, I could be wrong.

So, as a followup reply to @FrankSG, the biggest open interest spike on the call side for this Friday's expiry (02/14) is at $900, and this is the daily breakdown on when they were bought:

As you can see 95%+ of the open interest $900 contracts were bought when the share price was above or near $900 already, with very high implied volatility and very high premiums. I don't expect options market makers to have much trouble delta hedging these, should the share price approach $900 again, while keeping a fair share of the premiums.

The put open interest is basically zero in the $700-$1,000 price range for this week, so I'd expect there to be upwards volatility, should the price approach or decisively break through $900.

 

[Artful Dodger]

560,152 shares sold in the Pre-Market by 08:00 EST

 

[FrankSG]

As you can see 95%+ of the open interest $900 contracts were bought when the share price was above or near $900 already

Am I misreading the graph? The OI numbers are taken at market open of that day, correct?

In that case, weren't most of these positions opened during trading on Wednesday? Meaning at a SP of in between $700-$800 or so? Tuesday it may have closed at ~$900, but it opened at ~$800 on Wednesday.