(Note that RO-RO is only part of international shipping and does not reflect destinations that use containers)
Do you have an update to the RO-RO quarterly ship count chart you recently posted perhaps - is the 10 times late start relative to Q4 still present?
Fremont S/X production and deliveries: harder to say. Production and demand has been steadily growing every quarter after its initial cannibalization by the 3, but Q1 is a low, which is usually a bigger factor. But Q4 had to push off a lot of S&X to Q1 just like they had to with the 3. But they also need to rebuild inventory. I'd put it down a few thousand deliveries.
The interesting part here is that new U.S. orders of the Model S/X are currently marked as "Estimated Delivery: 5-7 weeks" - IIRC this was down to 3-4 weeks a year ago. While this might be inaccurate, as the website delivery estimates usually are, combined with the lack of price cuts this suggests the Q1 order book is "fine" for the Model S/X as well.
I also presume that Porsche's decision to delay the disclosure of their abysmal Taycan EPA range to the very last minute, and their lame attempts to PR it away disappointed a significant percentage of Taycan pre-order customers, who might be choosing a Raven now. There's very few rational reasons to buy the much more expensive yet less capable Taycan over a Model S.
Finally, the very nice Tesla ads during the Superbowl might have created additional demand. Compared to Q1 last year there's a lot less economic uncertainty in the U.S., consumer sentiment is decidedly optimistic.
Shanghai 3 production and deliveries: I've long estimated 5-20k, with a median scenario around 8-9k, accounting for the Lunar New Year, but not accounting for 2019-nCoV. The latter caused a 1-week full shutdown, and non-local workers are quarantined for up to 14 additional days, determining on when they arrived back in Shanghai. Local suppliers are also likewise effected. But that said, all parts and manufacturing steps are not equally bottlenecked. E.g. if some part from the US can make up for a local bottleneck, it might be partly ameliorating. Overall, I'd reduce the above numbers to say, 4-17k with a median of 7k or so. Margins should be positive, but lower than Fremont.
There's an interesting detail in Shanghai, the Shanghai government thought it important to single out LG Chem's factory with an exemption to resume work on February 10 already, to supply GF3 with battery cells:
It would be odd for GF3 and LG Chem both to restart work - just to be hampered by other, more trivial elements of the local supply chain.
I'd also guess that most of the GF3 parts supply is still external to China: in Q4 they announced the planned the localization of the supply chain, implying that this has not happened yet. Also, I wouldn't expect suppliers to go away - they'd simply expand their China production with a local supply chain - without upsetting the Fremont supply chain.
I.e. Tesla's exposure to "deep inland China" supply chains might be less severe than feared.
