Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[FrankSG]

 

[thait84]

I remember when Tesla used to perform opposite of macros. As if TSLA is the "safe" spot to park your money. Up almost 3% in the Frankfurt exchange is promising!

 

[Evoforce]

My prediction is the stock will shoot up based on German factory ground clearing news! Enjoy the ride! Wish I knew how to play the market... I think...

I would like to leverage for more stock.

 

[Tslynk67]

On UK TV - those two MX hit by falling tree...

Jim Hall on Twitter

 

[LN1_Casey]

Chao Zhou on Twitter

User saying that GF3 is under "full operational" now, with a few pictures. Uncertain the validity, and it makes no mention as the number of personnel working. Could be still the same 40 of 100 buses that we initially opened after the holidays with.

 

[Evoforce]

Alright! Keep the great news coming!

 

[Fact Checking]

Alright! Keep the great news coming!

Now it would be time for one of the following credit rating agencies to upgrade Tesla from its ridiculously low rating:

• Moody's (B3, junk bond rating)
• S&P (B-, junk bond rating)

Maybe Fitch could initiate a Tesla rating? They are already covering much smaller U.S. automakers after all, such as Ford, GM and Fiat-Chrysler.

Spoiler: Video message to the rating agencies

 

[Eugene Ash]

I'm not spending $100k on puts or anything, so I don't really care if they expire worthless. We are all paying a lot of money every year on homeowner's insurance and car insurance and most of the time we will never use it. No one here thinks homeowner's insurance and car insurance is worthless, right? Okay then.

Right now I'm just getting the $110 strike SPY puts, January 2021. They are literally $0.05 a contract, I could buy 1,000 of these contracts and the cost is insignificant compared to the downside protection and if they expire worthless then I get a nice loss to offset my taxes. It's a win-win situation and when the market takes it's inevitable 50% dive I'll get some money back while I ride my positions down and then back up again.

So if SPY is 330 now, it is apocalyptic if it goes to 110 and becomes ITM. 50% dive is still about 165.
I think a 20% is realistic and that brings us down to about 270. Factoring in the price of buying a put, the strike is about 285-290. Not 5c, but more probable to go ITM.

 

[LN1_Casey]

Now it would be time for one of the following credit rating agencies to upgrade Tesla from its ridiculously low rating:

• Moody's (B3, junk bond rating)
• S&P (B-, junk bond rating)

Maybe Fitch could initiate a Tesla rating? They are already covering much smaller U.S. automakers after all, such as Ford, GM and Fiat-Chrysler.

View attachment 513402

If they do come out with an upgrade, my bet is it'll be next week. Too much money on the line for calls expiring Friday in the 900 and above range.

 

[Cobbler]

. ...covering much smaller U.S. automakers after all, such as Ford, GM and Fiat-Chrysler.

In Ricky Gervais' voice:
"It's funny, cause it's true...."

 

[LN1_Casey]

More good news, someone seems to have released the secrets of the new battery design.

GazzerG on Twitter

Shh. Don't tell the shorties!

 

[Dylan]

I'm not spending $100k on puts or anything, so I don't really care if they expire worthless. We are all paying a lot of money every year on homeowner's insurance and car insurance and most of the time we will never use it. No one here thinks homeowner's insurance and car insurance is worthless, right? Okay then.

Right now I'm just getting the $110 strike SPY puts, January 2021. They are literally $0.05 a contract, I could buy 1,000 of these contracts and the cost is insignificant compared to the downside protection and if they expire worthless then I get a nice loss to offset my taxes. It's a win-win situation and when the market takes it's inevitable 50% dive I'll get some money back while I ride my positions down and then back up again.

I find the comparison you’re making with house or car insurance is inaccurate; when your house burns down or your car is totaled you will need a new house or car shortly after. Hence the insurance. Like @StealthP3D says you have the ability to ride out the dip with stocks.

I do think speculating a drop in this bull market is not the craziest idea

 

[hobbes]

My prediction is the stock will shoot up based on German factory ground clearing news! Enjoy the ride! Wish I knew how to play the market... I think...

I would like to leverage for more stock.

We talked about how much European markets are worth for predicting performance once US opens. Looking at the price action on tradegate exchange today, it looks to me as if general sentiment is really bullish due to court order that Tesla can resume cutting trees, which is all over news - but at the same time someone wants to keep share price down. Disclaimer: This is just me reading the tea leaves. Prediction: Market makers will try to keep share price down for option expiration today. Expecting rise to resume Monday. Not advice.

 

[Evoforce]

While I generally would agree, I don't think they can keep the lid on it today. But I am an optimist.

 

[DrMazeppa]

People here really do not like macroeconomics. When the economy recovers, prepare for dips....

Anyway, I love a good old Friday sale.

 

[hobbes]

Same people that didn’t value China until a car rolled out of it with Chinese letters on the back.

Hope for German GF cars with latin letters will do !

 

[Evoforce]

Come on! I want to squeeze shorts and enjoy the pleasure that it gives me in the moment. ...

P.S. For some people that is like popping a zit..

 

[Aeon]

Hope for German GF cars with latin letters will do !

Let's vote:

(yeah, I don't see it either..)​

 

[hobbes]

GF3 Shanghai fully operational again according to this:

RayTesla️ on Twitter

Parking lots for new cars filled again, test track busy, trucks with Model 3 for delivery going out .

In the comments someone says that they have 600 new employees. IIRC, around mit February there planning to add a second shift... Wonder if they did that in spite of Corona break.

 

[replicant]

Head of Advanced Transport at Bloomberg New Energy Finance:

1. expects Q1 global car sales to drop by 10-20% b/c of COVID-19
2. anticipate April earnings season to dent consumer confidence, heading for biggest annual drop in global car sales in a decade
3. will revise global EV sales forecast for 2020 down – Europe not strong enough to compensate Asia drop
4. can't tell if auto demand will be deferred vs destroyed. Will know much later in the year.

Colin Mckerracher on Twitter