Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Tslynk67]

I was giving Helpful, but not all Tesla employees are Tesla enthusiasts, thus maybe the reason no Youtube yet. I am just giving the benefit of the doubt.

I don't wish to come across as rude, but this surely ranks as one of the oddest things I've ever read on this forum.

 

[ZeApelido]

It's costs per kilogram that are relevant. For all of the hype about graphene cost reduction over the years, it's still many dozens of dollars per kilo.

And it's a moot point really. Nothing can be superior to lithium metal as an anode material (you can't get a higher storage ratio than 100% of the anode mass being lithium, and you're not going to beat it on voltage, either), and we'll hit predominantly-lithium metal anodes well before graphene becomes affordable. In the meantime, increasingly high fractions of silicon are good enough. Silicon in anodes stores lithium at a 15:4 molar ratio (15 lithium per 4 silicon), which is about a 1:1 mass ratio, and much better than that from a volumetric ratio (the huge volumetric change has historically been the primary problem to overcome!)

Just a random thought, but exactly why aren't you working for Tesla yet?

 

[ZeApelido]

Just a random thought, but exactly why aren't you working for Tesla yet?

I mean Tesla hires only the best robots for alien-dreadnought...

 

[Tslynk67]

The July 2022 options in the 1500 range are favorably priced IMO. Not as favorable as they were 3 weeks ago, but still quite good IMO. Just an opinion though, I am fumbling my way through doing well at this despite not having a clue what I am doing.

Was you, Pete that have the heads-up on the $1 2021 $650's, no? You advice I take very seriously indeed, made me $150k the last time out.

And if you're ever heading to Europe, come visit Brussels, the beers are on me, lots of 'em!

 

[MP3Mike]

Just 2 months into 2020 and we’ve already beaten the 2019 sales number!
View attachment 514342

In this version of your post it seems like you cut off the last line saying that the 2020 number is Tesla's forecast for the whole year...

@JonErlichman
·
5h

Tesla vehicle deliveries each year:

2020: +500,000
2019: 367,500
2018: 245,240
2017: 103,097
2016: 76,295
2015: 50,580
2014: 31,655
2013: 22,477
2012: 2,650
2011: 0

(2020 is Tesla’s forecast)

Here is a link to the tweet: Jon Erlichman on Twitter

So no, Tesla has not delivered 500k cars already this year...​

 

[Remus]

One thing that you get in spades from his Letter to Shareholders, is something that's helped me with articulating my own buy and hold strategy. He talks about taking positions in companies because what you're buying is fractional (or whole!) ownership in a business - not placing bets in a casino.

The financial industry and media are pretty much geared to create the bets-in-casino mindset; what's the share price TODAY / RIGHT NOW; is it going to go UP $1 or DOWN $1; is guidance too high by 5k cars this year?!?

Mostly, it's a whole bunch of noise designed to get bettors into the casino, making wagers (transactions).


That's the mindset and approach of Buffet's that makes it easy for me to be a Tesla bull, and a Buffet fan. There are elements of his investment philosophy that don't work for me, and there are elements of the attitude that do work. The two fit together easily in my mind.

It also helps that I work in high - tech, and though I don't work in autonomous driving, I do work in a field that uses many of the techniques (data science), so I'm reasonably comfortable evaluating progress and setbacks along the way with one of the technologies Tesla is working on, that we think will be valuable. You'll also find that I'm not investing in the insurance business

Of course it can't be all garbage.

But listen to what Munger said about Tesla and listen to his explanation of "prudent". That is basically the jist of their investment philosophy. It pretty much means find a company that can make money continue doing what they have been doing without changing much.

That's why they didn't invest in any of the high tech powerhouses because all of them had big R&D spending to keep them ahead of competitors.

 

[capster]

Is anyone worried like me for Monday’s market open because of the weekend Coronavirus mass outbreaks in Italy and South Korea?

Not really worried, in fact I too have a bullish feeling. However, it’s just hard to know.

Couple reasons TSLA would be more resilient than alternatives, beyond Tesla’s robust growth:

• Recent rises in TSLA coupled with dropping other securities which were used as collateral would be a double whammy for shorts
  
• Coronavirus more negative for legacy automakers than for Tesla (more vertical integration for example mentioned upthread) and virus also compounding legacy automakers’ existing woes

This is not to say that TSLA won’t be affected ever, just that TSLA will be relatively less affected and Tesla may gain further competitive advantage. I’m not confident of my ability to time any of this, so I’m going to just continue holding.

Not advice

 

[MarcoRP]

In this version of your post it seems like you cut off the last line saying that the 2020 number is Tesla's forecast for the whole year...



Here is a link to the tweet: Jon Erlichman on Twitter

So no, Tesla has not delivered 500k cars already this year...​

I just realized the mistake. Thanks for pointing it out. Will delete the post

 

[Cosmacelf]

Just a note of perspective, but BRK has underperformed S&P500 over the last 10 years.

I just did an analysis based on the numbers in brk’s shareholder letter. If you invested in both and held until end of 2019, for a starting investment starting in 2003 and for each year thereafter, they’ve underperformed the S&P 500. So they haven’t been performing for 17 years no matter when you started investing.

I suspect it’s because they don’t invest in tech and tech has been both outperforming the rest of the market and a bigger and bigger part of the S&P 500.

 

[defc0n]

Who is excited for Monday?




















View attachment 514316

Any particular reason why? What did I miss?

 

[defc0n]

I just did an analysis based on the numbers in brk’s shareholder letter. If you invested in both and held until end of 2019, for a starting investment starting in 2003 and for each year thereafter, they’ve underperformed the S&P 500. So they haven’t been performing for 17 years no matter when you started investing.

I suspect it’s because they don’t invest in tech and tech has been both outperforming the rest of the market and a bigger and bigger part of the S&P 500.

Charlie Munger is super butthurt about it too I think.

 

[Cosmacelf]

That's why they [BRK] didn't invest in any of the high tech powerhouses because all of them had big R&D spending to keep them ahead of competitors.

100% correct. It is rather funny when you think about it. BRK's philosophy is that they are smarter on average than the S&P 500. ie. they are leveraging their brains to get better returns (it hasn't been working since 2003, but that's beside my point). So they look askance at tech companies that are doing exactly the same thing as they are but in a different sector?

Does Buffett think BRK has some moat that protects them from other investment strategies? I wonder if anyone has asked Buffett what his moat is?

 

[SarahsDad]

Too bad ”Past Performance is Not Indicative of Future Results”.

Otherwise next Monday would be the day...

 

[Lessmog]

Hey guys, just realized I missed the 7 year anniversary of my own awakening to Tesla & Musk.

Automobile Data Surveillance and the Future of Black Boxes - Schneier on Security​

Sec-tech-boffin Bruce Schneier slipped out a blog post contemplating how Tesla can use a car's log to put the lie to Mega Media Moguls doing Evil Work. Musk's strong rebuttal to John Broder of New York Times for his deliberate sabotage of a test loaner made me curious, and around the same period he slid out his famous Trilogy in Five Parts, including the April 1 hint of Positive Cash Flow. So I researched how to invest in that person and his company. Now very glad I did, at $51 to begin with -- last close was 901, right?

Here's a snippet of that piece:

Tesla Motors gave one of its electric cars to John Broder, a very outspoken electric-car skeptic from the New York Times, for a test drive. After a negative review, Tesla revealed that it logged a dizzying amount of data from that test drive. The company then matched the reporter's claims against its logs and published a rebuttal. Broder rebutted the rebuttal, and others have tried to figure out who is lying and who is not.

What's interesting to me is the sheer amount of data Tesla Motors automatically collected about the test drive. From the rebuttal:

After a negative experience several years ago with Top Gear, a popular automotive show, where they pretended that our car ran out of energy and had to be pushed back to the garage, we always carefully data log media drives.​

Read the article to see what they logged: power consumption, speed, ambient temperature, control settings, location, and so on.​

NYT issued an "apology" but kicked Broder upwards to a more senior position, in the editorial board IIRC.

 

[JakeP]

Hey all, I’ve been enjoying this thread with great interest for the past few weeks, and I don’t think I have been on TMC so obsessively since late 2012, when we were all going bonkers over seeing any new pictures or videos of everyone’s newly delivered Model S, in all their glorious original colors.

Anyway, I’m looking for strategy advice on playing options. I’m already long with shares, and plan to hold them until we see Cathie Wood’s bull case realized. I believe that Q1 earnings could be a positive surprise, and that Investor Day and Battery Day could cause major SP increases, propelling us forward to the 4000 or 7000 SP that we are all hoping for in the next few years. Yet with such a large run-up in recent weeks, it is likely a bad time to jump into options, as their prices are likely inflated.

Given all this, what strategy should I pursue? Buy deep OTM calls way out in the future (21/22), to try to capture the next jump to 2000 and beyond? Buy OTM calls with six month expirations, every six months? Buy short term OTM lottery ticket calls just before these upcoming events? How deep OTM to go with this, 1200/1500/1800? Or do either of the above with ATM or near-ATM calls? Wait a few months and hope the SP stabilizes and option prices come down as IV drops? Or just buy more shares and be patient, and forego the extra profit potential built into the leverage of the options?

Would love to hear your thoughts on strategies here.

 

[Cosmacelf]

Same for many of us here, you can not play with stonk anymore if you work for them.

You can't? Doesn't insider trading only apply only if you're a company officer?

 

[Cosmacelf]

wolfe research with rob maruer

And what's interesting about this? Can you give us a summary?

 

[BenPrice]

Is anyone worried like me for Monday’s market open because of the weekend Coronavirus mass outbreaks in Italy and South Korea?

I mean, selfishly yes for some short term options...

But we’ve had an Iran general assassinated Weekend, corona virus weekends where apple gave profit warnings, etc.

I feel bad that people have lost their life to this virus, but in the US alone we get 10000 to 60000 flu deaths per year.

This virus has claimed the life of 2000 people, many in lower income areas.

I personally believe 95% of all news coverage on the Coronavirus issue is sensationalism or, essentially, fake news, propaganda from enemies, Bear investors beating the drum, etc. I’m not saying the Coronavirus is fake, but it’s severity is being so blown out of proportion to its impact it isn’t funny. The way the news sounds it’s aerial aids that you get if you are even in the same room with somebody else.

 

[Words of HABIT]

100% correct. It is rather funny when you think about it. BRK's philosophy is that they are smarter on average than the S&P 500. ie. they are leveraging their brains to get better returns (it hasn't been working since 2003, but that's beside my point). So they look askance at tech companies that are doing exactly the same thing as they are but in a different sector?

Does Buffett think BRK has some moat that protects them from other investment strategies? I wonder if anyone has asked Buffett what his moat is?

IMHO, BRK is the main reason why AAPL has doubled within the last twelve months. If BRK decides to sell AAPL the counter reaction will be just as severe and much quicker.

I believe this next recession will not simply be a lowing tide sinking all ships, but a re-alignment to the new order, the end of the industrial revolution at all costs, and the beginning of the environmental revolution, the sinking of old ships resulting in the buoying of new ships. Blackrock agrees. We will all find out out in the next few years. Losing is not an option. It's game time.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Just a random thought, but exactly why aren't you working for Tesla yet?

Dude! U wan half of the AI on this forum to go up in a puff of NDA?!