Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Sherlo]

Is it really a pullback if we are higher than we were 28 days ago?

Ok, a gentle 30% “pullback”

 

[ggr]

Excuse me if this has already been confirmed and mentioned somewhere. But, does anyone know whether the Y has an automatic powered lift gate like the X? Would love to be able to remotely open it up all the way like with the X.

I don't think it does, but you can buy after-market trunk open/close for the Model 3, so I imagine it won't be long at all.

 

[Chunky Jr.]

The last time TSLA dropped significantly, almost 50%, I bought some shares at 190. I recently sold some of those at 930, and I'm using the proceeds (along with a trade in of my P85) to buy a new Model S LR+. Haven't placed the order yet, but have spousal approval.

 

[kyzhk]

The last time TSLA dropped significantly, almost 50%, I bought some shares at 190. I recently sold some of those at 930, and I'm using the proceeds (along with a trade in of my P85) to buy a new Model S LR+. Haven't placed the order yet, but have spousal approval.

I can already hear the whining about how this cost you a million dollar

 

[Chunky Jr.]

I can already hear the whining about how this cost you a million dollar

If the shares I sold end up being worth $1M, all of us will be swimming in money like Scrooge McDuck

 

[Eugene Ash]

I too haven’t touched any of my shares in my very long term pension account. And the reason for that is because I feel on balance that Tesla is well placed to ride out a recession, even one that might prove be a once a generation event.

But last I checked, a great number of people here are engaged in trading. And a greater number still will have portions of their investment portfolio that they intend to monetise earlier than a “very long time” time frame.

Governments around the world are this weekend having serious conversations about the trade off between guaranteeing an economic downturn through restrictions on trade and movement, versus letting the virus run its course and accepting the consequences. It’s naive to pretend this isn’t going on and frankly insults your own intelligence to call a long standing and bullish poster a “care bear” for trying to highlight these risks.

Think about the second order consequences. If there is not a sharp rebound in Q2 in China after what may be in truth a double digit yoy GDP contraction in Q1, what do you suppose will happen to the banking system? One that is already stuffed to the gills with undeclared NPLs. Mass capitalisation of bad banks to clean up the balance sheet is the Communist Party’s normal play, finances by printed local currency. But what then happens to the yuan and what does that mean for the competitiveness of the wider world and the global trade system?

Italy’s banking system has already teetered on the brink of insolvency for a couple of years and it’s politics becoming more fragmented and extreme. Hopefully after a poor start, the govt contains the outbreak. But what if it doesn’t and you have a full blown recession? Do the politics of it before long force Italy out of the Eurozone? What happens to its giant Target 2 deficit (tending towards €1tr), largely financed by Germany? And what might that all do to the politics in France?

What happens to Emerging Markers, which are heavily exposed to a) commodity prices, b) tourism?

Others here far better qualified to talk about US.

It’s perfectly fine to say you’re not selling Tesla for 15 years and don’t care if the mark to market fell 90% in the interim. But I suspect there are many here who have still not considered that is even a possibility.

Well, supply side shock. Short term: Lagarde said: cutting rates is useless in fighting virus and supply chains. Per-country response to bail out individual companies or perhaps affected industries till situation is resolved. US: Fed might be pressured to do something, and if they do, it will only inflate assets, tsla sp included. Loud cheers will be heard.
Mid term: China gets back to work full steam ahead. Some gdp lost, but they can always build more infrastructure and prop out companies before then. They face the same de-globalization wind.
Long term: companies _might_ de-risk supply chains out of China to at least have contingency suppliers. Some may even re-shore with increasingly powerful automation and already cheap capital. It is in China's interest to resolve it quickly, the longer it lasts, the more companies will think about de-risking.

So for me it is valerian and lavander weekend

 

[Eugene Ash]

Wow, I hadn't noticed the P/E of nearly 700! That's one high flying tech stock!

But seriously, the only way F can pay dividends is by selling their seed corn, for example putting up their logo as collateral for a loan. This is a death spiral if ever I've seen one. I'd buy some puts except they're probably going to rebound with the market. Made a note...

I was thinking of the ones, coinsiding with penalties for co2 noncompliance. A bet that they fail to sell enough e-mustangs. Does anyone remember when is such deadline?

 

[CalX]

I just noticed this really large spike at the end of the trading day in most stocks, NASDAQ or DJI. Is this covering of naked shorts, algos, or hedge funds trying to reach max pain? Can we expect this next Friday afternoon?

 

[Singuy]

Well, supply side shock. Short term: Lagarde said: cutting rates is useless in fighting virus and supply chains. Per-country response to bail out individual companies or perhaps affected industries till situation is resolved. US: Fed might be pressured to do something, and if they do, it will only inflate assets, tsla sp included. Loud cheers will be heard.
Mid term: China gets back to work full steam ahead. Some gdp lost, but they can always build more infrastructure and prop out companies before then. They face the same de-globalization wind.
Long term: companies _might_ de-risk supply chains out of China to at least have contingency suppliers. Some may even re-shore with increasingly powerful automation and already cheap capital. It is in China's interest to resolve it quickly, the longer it lasts, the more companies will think about de-risking.

So for me it is valerian and lavander weekend

This outbreak sealed China's fate as the best place to invest vs de-risking. No other country can have such obedient citizens, able to contain this virus with such governmental grip, and build a freaken hospital in 10 days. Lets look at what the U.S government is doing about the virus. Oh look, Trump is calling it a hoax by the democrats..night and day difference.

Yeah go de-risk..I dare them. Can you find anywhere else in the world that get *sugar* done like the Chinese?

Elon just said today China will likely beat the U.S economy by a factor of 2x+. It's because the Chinese people's ability to get things done blows his mind.

 

[Sherlo]

I just noticed this really large spike at the end of the trading day in most stocks, NASDAQ or DJI. Is this covering of naked shorts, algos, or hedge funds trying to reach max pain? Can we expect this next Friday afternoon?
View attachment 516249

This late move was related to the increased expectation of an emergency cut by fed. Perhaps even a coordinated one by central banks around the world this weekend.

 

[Nuclear Fusion]

This outbreak sealed China's fate as the best place to invest vs de-risking. No other country can have such obedient citizens, able to contain this virus with such governmental grip, and build a freaken hospital in 10 days. Lets look at what the U.S government is doing about the virus. Oh look, Trump is calling it a democratic hoax..night and day difference.

Come on man. VP Pence & his magical thinking is handling the virus just fine.

 

[Mike Smith]

A good video about the possible Q1 numbers.

He told an auditorium full of fighter pilots that they're obsolete and got a standing ovation.

 

[UnknownSoldier]

I just noticed this really large spike at the end of the trading day in most stocks, NASDAQ or DJI. Is this covering of naked shorts, algos, or hedge funds trying to reach max pain? Can we expect this next Friday afternoon?
View attachment 516249

The market is completely wild right now. I watched NVDA instantly jump almost 7% to end the day and I have no idea why. I think the manipulators are hard at work behind the scenes, but what their planned endgame is no one knows.

 

[KarenRei]

The market is completely wild right now. I watched NVDA instantly jump almost 7% to end the day and I have no idea why. I think the manipulators are hard at work behind the scenes, but what their planned endgame is no one knows.

Pretty simple... everyone's trying to time the bottom. Expect wild jumps in either direction.

 

[Prunesquallor]

I'm stocking up so I can at least do one month.

You should be thankful that the people who keep the electricity flowing will NOT be hunkering down, or you'll be hunkering in the dark.

 

[phantasms]

You should be thankful that the people who keep the electricity flowing will NOT be hunkering down, or you'll be hunkering in the dark.

If not for my expectation that Tesla will be releasing new Powerwalls soon I'd have them over here ASAP to add some backup to my solar.

 

[Eugene Ash]

This outbreak sealed China's fate as the best place to invest vs de-risking. No other country can have such obedient citizens, able to contain this virus with such governmental grip, and build a freaken hospital in 10 days. Lets look at what the U.S government is doing about the virus. Oh look, Trump is calling it a hoax by the democrats..night and day difference.

Yeah go de-risk..I dare them. Can you find anywhere else in the world that get *sugar* done like the Chinese?

Elon just said today China will likely beat the U.S economy by a factor of 2x+. It's because the Chinese people's ability to get things done blows his mind.

That is a possibility: pros:
Having a centralized grid and power, HV transmission lines and political levers to do so
Strategic planning at state level to dominate industries (e.g. Solar)
Heavy industry and infrastructure expertise

Meh: Ability to do landmark projects: communists are great at these heroic efforts meeting epic deadlines (tu-144 anyone?). These are easier and faster than systemic reforms.

Cons: level of debt: favorite thing to do is achieve 6.5% GDP number via infrastructure projects, needed or not. Gets job done, but has diminishing returns
Innovation: US still attracts the brightest, though CN quickly evolves its good-enough tech.
Demographics: this is yuge.
1.62 vs 1.8 in US, where US still attracts talent through immigration, despite repeated attempts to discharge firearms into its own limbs.
For China: having an out-of-reach real estate market, rapid urbanization and coming out of one-child policy means going the way of Japan, and is probably their biggest challenge.

 

[StealthP3D]

My portfolio was 100% TSLA stock, TSLA options up untill 1 month ago (and has been for 5 years.)
I assume few others here managed to salvage their portfolio through this.

What the heck are you talking about? "salvage" my portfolio? You make it sound like the aftermath of a hurricane or meteor strike. Let me put this into perspective for you:

One month ago, on January 29th, my wife and I were celebrating the great fortune of how well our brokerage acct. portfolio was doing. It was sitting at a new high and had powered there very quickly, nearly tripling in the last several months. We felt very fortunate indeed as we toasted our good fortunes. That was on January 29th.

Fast forward one month and the same portfolio is now higher by a six-figure amount. No, I'm not counting the cents and I haven't sold a single share of my largest holding, TSLA (I actually added some twice today). We are tickled pink about it. There is no devastation unless you are foolish enough to think of your day to day TSLA stock holdings as cash. They are not cash, they are ownership shares in a fast-growing company. Once you gain more years experience and let your portfolio grow to multiples beyond what you ever imagined, only then will you understand the beauty and wisdom of not counting your day to day brokerage balance as if it were cash. It's not, unless you convert it to cash, something that comes with a long list of negatives and potential negatives. In time you might learn this.

I don't see devastation, I see good fortune with more room to grow than I saw a week ago so I'm not sure what you are crowing about.

 

[Prunesquallor]

You’re welcome Rivian. On the back of Tesla —

Actually, I know a Rivian lobbyist was at the same table as the Tesla lobbyist when they were protesting the proposed rule change to the Texas dealership law last year. Rivian is obviously planning the same direct-to-customer sales model as Tesla and is also trying to change the system.

 

[MartinAustin]

Re: timing the bottom.

1) analyse all the stocks you normally keep tabs on to see which ones are lower than they should be (even given the covid19 drops that are going on)

2) analyse the covid19 effect to see when its effect on the stock market about to turn a corner. Note: we just had the worst week on the stock market since 2008. Good time for a bounce back?

3) Friday EOD is probably the best time to make a gamble... as therefollows a lot of news over a weekend that you can't react to with stock transactions. Obviously those folks buying NVDA etc. are gambling that things will feel better on Monday.