Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Artful Dodger]

Wow it's sitting stubbornly at $550 again ... real stubborn.

We plunged briefly to more than $5 below the Lower-BB, which sits at $552.63 as of Noon EDT, so there's some support there. Absent news, we'll ride likely the Lower-BB until something else comes to light.

MMs + Shortzes followed exactly this tactic in Spring 2019 to drive the SP down by capping ralleys, and jumping on macro dips. Expect more of the same. Its how they roll.

Problem for us right now is the Lower-BB is dropping over $25/day atm, and we're getting hit with whack'a'mole games again. Watch for "Short Exempt Volume" a.k.a. naked shorting later today in the report from FINRA (3:30 pm EDT)

 

[TheTalkingMule]

Wait....did Tesla just jump from 7 to 30 years ahead of VW?

Volkswagen hopes new software will banish accidents by 2050

 

[neezer]

We plunged briefly to more than $5 below the Lower-BB, which sits at $552.63 as of Noon EDT, so there's some support there. Absent news, we'll ride likely the Lower-BB until something else comes to light.

View attachment 520890

MMs + Shortzes followed exactly this tactic in Spring 2019 to drive the SP down by capping ralleys, and jumping on macro dips. Expect more of the same. Its how they roll.

Problem for us right now is the Lower-BB is dropping over $25/day atm, and we're getting hit with whack'a'mole games again to stabilize the SP and technicals. Watch for naked "short exempt volume" later today from FINRA.

Thanks. Sounds like it is extremely dangerous to play short-term options then for now ... yikes.

 

[ByeByeJohnny]

I can't remember the last time I've felt so sick to my stomach as I have over the last week. You see, I sold all my Tesla shares a week ago for around 700. I genuinely felt sick about not having any stock, and I've slept horrible, but I just knew the politicians would not find a good way to handle this Corona mess. I had every intention of buying back in before it went back over 700 if I had to but I still had FOMO.

But I also had a plan to finally get that number of shares I had always hoped I would somehow be able to have as a retirement cushion. At 551 I was able to buy back that number of shares which also meant I had quadrupled my initial number without putting anymore capital in (I really don't have any more funds). Lots of calls as the stock went up did most of the work but I needed to get lucky one more time.

I feel so much better now that I own Tesla stock again and I know I will never sell again until retirement. I'm sure it will drop further since there is no way I bought at the bottom but I'm fine with that. I'm good looking 5-10 years ahead.

Only problem now I'm gonna have to live on noodles for awhile since I work as a freelancer in the entertainment industry. Not gonna be many paychecks in the next couple of months.

 

[SOULPEDL]

I'm not the most experienced investor ever. But I'm about to increase my leverage when I see how far Trump's stupidity will panic the market.

All I'm sayin is that people trade, shift positions as a result of news, rumor, and FUD. So the person that sold today adjusted leverage, but at the extreme case. Like he got off the stairs while many are on high-speed escalators hoping the power doesn't fail. Not because it dropped today, but because it seems quite likely to me that it might do the same tomorrow. The markets got a haircut but still has legs.

Almost worth putting up for a vote. Up or down tomorrow? (according to public perception, not yours). People still not sure what hit them. So what's the next 2 days look like in most households? Are they investing, or ya think they're freakin out and cancelling plans for a Model Y? I say there could be a play here even on the stairs over a couple days.

 

[PeterJA]

...From a TSLA investor standpoint, what I'm most worried about short term is the fact that if they discover many more cases in California, how long before TSLA is forced to temporarily halt manufacturing in Fremont? What is news like that going to do to the stock price? I think this is the biggest possible short term risk.

If necessary, Tesla will respond the way they did at Gigafactory Shanghai.

Gigafactory Shanghai is operating.

 

[Highway2Heel]

Wow it's sitting stubbornly at $550 again ... real stubborn.

Price slowly creeping down on low volume while some short term calls appear to be slowly creeping up.

 

[KSilver2000]

Not saying the same thing will happen because we can’t predict the future.
But, I still remember everyone talking about buying opportunity pretty much every day all the way until 50% of market value was gone during the previous recession. Very few were willing to acknowledge how bad the situation was becoming then.

I think my post from earlier this week has been very pertinent.

 

[UnknownSoldier]

Not saying the same thing will happen because we can’t predict the future.
But, I still remember everyone talking about buying opportunity pretty much every day all the way until 50% of market value was gone during the previous recession. Very few were willing to acknowledge how bad the situation was becoming then.

I'm not into catching falling knives. That's a more dangerous game than just hedging the market as best I can. I'm not trying to make it rich in this current market, if I can maintain overall portfolio value I'm already doing well.

 

[samppa]

If you're not in simple stock, leverage adjusts automatically. It happens inherently over time and with respect to SP changes. The "adjusting leverage game" is a game that you're automatically playing if you're in options.

Now, one can try to keep leverage fixed - buying and selling as it changes. You can also go full out on timing the market, buying and selling short-term options, even swinging from major bull to major bear and back. But these are not the only strategies. I for example automatically increase leverage at a fixed, pre-determined SP points as the stock price declines, and decrease it at fixed, pre-determined points as the stock rises. I don't try to predict market reactions to short-term events at all. If the stock goes down, I'm in the market for more leverage. If the stock goes up, I'm in the market for less.

How do you determine the points?

 

[SunCatcher]

The only losses we're experiencing here are relative to paper; TSLA & TP (toilet paper). One of these is an actual loss, relative to daily use. The other? Only becomes real if stock is sold. Our mantra? Stay calm, don't panic, stay strong. And let the Homer Simpsons and Chicken Littles of the world exercise their right to lose their $hit. Let's just get this over with, shall we?

The Sky Is Falling Reaction GIF - Find & Share on GIPHY

 

[qphan79]

A physician's perspective and what I'm worried about for TSLA.

We got an email from our health system today that they started large scale testing for Covid-19 just yesterday. They are only testing those individuals that are symptomatic but also who don't test positive for other viruses like flu even though there is a 2% coinfection rate. Typically these tests take a few days to come back. All of this means that the number of cases in the US will drastically increase over the weekend and through next week.

From a TSLA investor standpoint, what I'm most worried about short term is the fact that if they discover many more cases in California, how long before TSLA is forced to temporarily halt manufacturing in Fremont? What is news like that going to do to the stock price? I think this is the biggest possible short term risk.

my thoughts on this is that Tesla already went through a govt mandated shutdown in Shanghai and now have been able to fully reopen using the best precautions. I have confidence that the Tesla management team will incorporate those same precautions and limit exposure of employees.

 

[oldTAVguy]

Remember that for each share sold it is bought. If short sellers are active, there are more buyers of real shares.

 

[wipster]

I can't remember the last time I've felt so sick to my stomach as I have over the last week. You see, I sold all my Tesla shares a week ago for around 700. I genuinely felt sick about not having any stock, and I've slept horrible, but I just knew the politicians would not find a good way to handle this Corona mess. I had every intention of buying back in before it went back over 700 if I had to but I still had FOMO.

But I also had a plan to finally get that number of shares I had always hoped I would somehow be able to have as a retirement cushion. At 551 I was able to buy back that number of shares which also meant I had quadrupled my initial number without putting anymore capital in (I really don't have any more funds). Lots of calls as the stock went up did most of the work but I needed to get lucky one more time.

I feel so much better now that I own Tesla stock again and I know I will never sell again until retirement. I'm sure it will drop further since there is no way I bought at the bottom but I'm fine with that. I'm good looking 5-10 years ahead.

Only problem now I'm gonna have to live on noodles for awhile since I work as a freelancer in the entertainment industry. Not gonna be many paychecks in the next couple of months.

I don't know when you bought your original shares of TSLA, but I am curious about how you're handling the tax on any gain you may have had at $700. Did that enter in your decision to sell? I know it would in mine, but since my basis is pretty low, most of the cash I would receive would be long-term capital gain... lower rate yes, but still consequential for me.

If you feel like sharing, I would appreciate knowing how to that figured in your decision. Thanks!

 

[lafrisbee]

All true...but keep in mind we shall all walk in those (elderly) shoes some day.

Only if FSD is fully implemented world-wide.

 

[Wooloomooloo]

there will be more, when it really hits the us economy and the need to close down small businesses.

Indeed - according to the models, US will hit peak infection in about 11 days, at least is measures are put into effect. Don't think we're any where near the bottom of this market.

 

[generalenthu]

Do remember that Pelosi is older than either of them, and very well could get the disease too. And AFAIK, Pence's risk isn't too high.

Women seem to have much better survival rates.

 

[marvinat0rz]

Indeed - according to the models, US will hit peak infection in about 11 days, at least is measures are put into effect. Don't think we're any where near the bottom of this market.

What model is that? Even by my insane-ish estimate of current real number of US infected, inferred from the number of dead today, there will only be 200.000 people with Covid-19 in 11 days. That's less than a tenth of a percent of the entire population, clearly long before herd immunity kicks in. I don't see how that could be the time of peak infections in the absence of strict quarantines.

 

[Wooloomooloo]

Fed comes in with $1 trillion.

Printing machines are at full tilt...

 

[Fobble]

Someone is buying big ...