I'm 75 percent reinvested, perhaps prematurely. Saving the 25 percent cash to see what happens over the next week or three. My IRA is down about 15 percent from its February peak, instead of the 40 percent or so if I hadn't cashed out. The 15 percent paper loss is from trying to catch a few falling knives. With purchases today, I have more TSLA stock than ever, and need it back to 630 or so to recover to my peak.
It will be interesting to see what the production/delivery numbers for TSLA look like, and whether this turmoil costs a few thousand deliveries before Q1 end, and how that effects Q1 profitability. Cars are very deferrable purchases, but as the overall car market volume shrinks this year, EVs may well grow in absolute terms, and even more so on a market share basis. The macro situation is going to make it harder for existing automakers to devote resources to the electric transition, and harder still to accept selling EVs below manufacturing cost to satisfy CO2 emission standards.
If this turns into a relatively nasty recession, Tesla has the option of slowing its growth plans slightly, perhaps delaying the central US factory by a couple of quarters or more. The flexibility for Fremont to allocate between M3 and MY production is going to be critical; hopefully that flexibility is there.
And this turmoil, unless we exit it very quickly with a strong market and economic bounce back, is likely to strongly influence US elections. A Biden presidency with a Democratic house and near 50/50 Senate is likely to result in policies that will benefit Tesla on EV, solar, and energy storage sales. However, if this turns out to be a relatively short-lived panic, voters won't remember it by November.