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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

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You have to realize that some of the people here play the TSLA game because our risk tolerance is super high. I mean not many can throw hundreds of thousands for that 10x potential gain. So from that, please note that some of us don't really care about this money since our living expenses are taken care off to the point that we have F U money to throw around at this company.

If you are not in this situation, then don't be lead by people who are in this situation. So if cash is tight or you can't tolerate the negative days then it's time to let it go.

As a long-term investor, I don't see TSLA as being any riskier than most stocks out there - a little less risky actually. I do not take implied volatility as a good proxy for risk. Look at Enron, it didn't have high IV and yet investors lost everything. Same with that Montana power utility. Stocks in general should only be invested in using money that is not earmarked for other purposes (like an emergency living fund). This is why it is so important to not over-extend one's self financially by buying things that stretch one's budget and using loans for everything. Because an over-extended person cannot invest safely and therefore can never reach financial independence.

There was a time when Tesla was too risky for me to touch. That time has long passed.
 
Wow. Take it easy. No need to be so judgmental. People are suffering and dieing. No need to gloat if your boat is currently unaffected.

It's exactly because ppl are suffering and dying that I am being judgmental. Because, right now, there are people partying on the beach of Florida on their spring break vacation as if they want this virus to spread as far and wide as possible.
 
So Elon is pretty busy trying to find effective treatments and is pretty active on twitter.

Found a bunch of his posts while looking over at a French doctor fully conducted and completed the a clinical trial for hydroxychloroquine, but now finds hydroxychloroquine + azithromycin to be a solid treatment option.

Twitter

if anyone know french, here's the study.

1. Testing for early diagnosis is key
2. Children are not effective at transmission of Corona virus
3. The infected person is contagious in average about 20 days (if no treatment is administered).
4. If Hydroxychloroquine + a.... is used, it reduces complications
 
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looks like most of people here had already sold their shares when Curtis (sorry I don't spell right, but you know, the long term bullish master) sold at 5xx?
Some of you might remember my post about "didn't sell at 7xx and my parents are going to rebuke me".
At that time some people encouraged me. To be honest I have some complain about that now, but, I should have sold my shares when I saw Curtis sell all his shares.

For every Curtis who correctly timed the market during the last week or 2, there's at least a different Curtis who incorrectly timed the market and sold TSLA @ $360 the Monday before the epic run up to $960 started, or before Q3 earnings because "it'll probably drop again like Q2 earnings".

If you believe you can time the market, go ahead and sell.

If you believe that TSLA's long term value is less than its current market cap of $80B, go ahead and sell.

If your life circumstances changed and you need cash in the short term, go ahead and sell.

If you get emotionally attached to stock market gains and believe the returns will not be worth the mental torture, either work on cultivating an attitude more conducive to investing success, or go ahead and sell.

Now what should I to do? It is a torture to see the SP goes down everyday, no decent rebound at all. Only some short intra-day rebound that lasts for 5 minutes. And in after hours, another 5%. The next day, another 13% if macro is bad, or 5% if macro rebound.

This sounds like the attitude of a gambler, not an investor. It sounds like you're addicted to the ticker being green.

Ideally, an investor only focuses on making the best decisions possible, and pays little attention to results, especially short term results. Determine what stocks are worth, buy them when they are below that value, sell them when they are at or above that value, and manage risks correctly. That's what successful investors are focused on.

My average cost was $234, but I don't think I can sustain the torture if the price goes below $350.
When I see some people are adding more shares along the way, I really think : " are you sure? Curtis has sold"

If you want to be successful at investing, you need to start thinking more for yourself. "Person X has sold" is not indicative of what the market will do in the future, because even the best investors will be wrong quite often.

If someone you respect does something, evaluate the person's argument for doing so, and decide whether you agree with him based on data and logic. If you want to do X just because person Y did so, you should check out eToro.

My cash can support my family for roughly 5 months; I may sell my MSFT stock to get another 12 months of living expense. But my job and my wife's job are not very stable. Should I keep holding and maybe in 2022 the SP could go back to $500?

When I recall one of you said he sold at $557 because of panic, I really wish I was panic enough and did that.

Only you can make this decision. In general, I personally recommend to try and not rely on stock market gains for your living expenses, because it's going to seriously cut into your long term returns, and it's unreliable as well in times like this.

I hope you're able to cover your family's living expenses through income in some way. Having 5 months of living expenses saved up is smart. In times like this, depending on how unstable your income is, keeping a year of living expenses saved up might provide an even better safety cushion.
 
looks like most of people here had already sold their shares when Curtis (sorry I don't spell right, but you know, the long term bullish master) sold at 5xx?
Some of you might remember my post about "didn't sell at 7xx and my parents are going to rebuke me".
At that time some people encouraged me. To be honest I have some complain about that now, but, I should have sold my shares when I saw Curtis sell all his shares.

Now what should I to do? It is a torture to see the SP goes down everyday, no decent rebound at all. Only some short intra-day rebound that lasts for 5 minutes. And in after hours, another 5%. The next day, another 13% if macro is bad, or 5% if macro rebound.

My average cost was $234, but I don't think I can sustain the torture if the price goes below $350.
When I see some people are adding more shares along the way, I really think : " are you sure? Curtis has sold"

My cash can support my family for roughly 5 months; I may sell my MSFT stock to get another 12 months of living expense. But my job and my wife's job are not very stable. Should I keep holding and maybe in 2022 the SP could go back to $500?

When I recall one of you said he sold at $557 because of panic, I really wish I was panic enough and did that.

I’ve learned in the past to take every comment on here with kilograms of salt. Just do whatever makes you feel comfortable. Even if it’s panic selling or buying. In the end, it’s your money.

Full disclosure, I’ve liquidated all TLSA except 25 shares from the high $1xx. People here have disagreed with me in recent past, but right now, not many, if any, companies are greater than the macros and population sentiment (look at VIX).
 
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I am anxiously awaiting my delivery. Ever since Tesla learned that I was getting home delivery (and I assume they couldn't complete delivery by EOQ) I've heard nothing. I even called my advisor and left a message asking for an update. Crickets. So I think there are plenty of deliveries taking place in this quarter. If there were not then they would be moving mine along. I expect I'll get an update in a week or two to take delivery in early April. But my main point is that the end of quarter push is likely alive and well.

If the shut-down order isn't amended then Tesla gets 14 days less production this quarter. That's 15% of the quarter but the impact on Q1 might be a bit less since it's impractical to deliver the cars made the last few days of the quarter anyway. This might allow them to clear out the inventory in the delivery pipeline. And any North American who has been eyeing a Tesla, take note, you might want to act fast if you want one now!

Hopefully, the ramp in Shanghai is spectacular and can make up for some of the lost production at Fremont.
 
If the shut-down order isn't amended then Tesla gets 14 days less production this quarter. That's 15% of the quarter but the impact on Q1 might be a bit less since it's impractical to deliver the cars made the last few days of the quarter anyway. This might allow them to clear out the inventory in the delivery pipeline. And any North American who has been eyeing a Tesla, take note, you might want to act fast if you want one now!

Hopefully, the ramp in Shanghai is spectacular and can make up for some of the lost production at Fremont.
So will this not impact their EOQ push to deliver cars?
 
So will this not impact their EOQ push to deliver cars?

Oh no, it will have an impact, how much is uncertain. They may be able to clear out the delivery pipeline but final delivery numbers will be lower than if production had continued. One thing is certain, it will be easier to clear the delivery pipeline than if they had continued production!
 
The problem is how long it has to be closed in Q2? The county cannot kill a company by simply disallowing its factory to operate a quarter.
I think the negotiation is still in progress. We might wake up tomorrow morning finding out the factory will keep running.
To me, this highlights the risk that tesla relies solely on one factory for most of its production. We need more factories in case some disasters hit. Tesla Fremont sits right on top of Hayward fault. When the inevitable major quake hits, it would be way devastating than the current virus situation.
 
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The problem is how long it has to be closed in Q2? The county cannot kill a company by simply disallowing its factory to operate a quarter.

Exactly! As this goes on the pressure around the Bay Area will build for economic activity to start again. Various companies will get permission for limited activities with precautions in place. Testing kits will become widespread and companies will test employees, employees will wear protective equipment, break rooms will be modified or added to reduce crowding, and things will gradually pick back up. Tesla will probably use the downtime to reconfigure some of its lines to be more efficient when full production resumes. Life goes on.

Being selfish here but I hope this accelerates the Cybertruck timeline. :cool:
 
New Anyone think Musk will defy this order and continue building cars?

If the shut-down order isn't amended then Tesla gets 14 days less production this quarter.

Firstly, federal law preempts state law, there's nothing to "defy" if federal law treats automakers as critical infrastructure - which it does.

Secondly, even on the state level the ultimate local authority ought to be Alameda county district health officials, who are working with Tesla to define the scope of the essential business definition:

Scott Haggerty on Twitter

"We’re working with staff at Public Health & Tesla to determine if Tesla’s definition of “essential business” applies, or not. We’ve been working on this all day & will continue to work until its resolved. The safety of the public is our highest concern."​

Edit: as pointed out below they have apparently decided against Tesla, so if federal law allows them to operate as critical infrastructure I'd expect Tesla to contest the order in court.

Btw., Alameda County District 1 Supervisor Scott Haggerty is getting a taste of the journalistic ethics of Russ "TSLAQ supporter" Mitchell:

Russ Mitchell on Twitter

"The Alameda County supervisor who represents the district where the Tesla factory sits - @scott_haggerty - has not yet responded to repeated requests for comment."

Scott Haggerty on Twitter

"With all due respect, I ask that you please not spread false information. I have confirmation that my staff responded to you yesterday & provided proper contact information for the Director of Alameda County Public Health Agency. Please do not add to the chaos with false claims."​

The TSLAQ criminals are working the referees hard, all in an attempt to prevent Americans from receiving their essential means of safe transportation during a pandemic: their cars.

It's disgusting, please everyone help out on Twitter and elsewhere to counter their machinations.

 
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Excuse me, but that's not how I read that post, rather I read:
"Today I got a call from Tesla Switzerland.
Due to Corona they will now register the vehicles for the deliveries.
With that follows a completely contact free handover on this coming Saturday (21.03.20)."

I read this to mean that unlike before, Tesla will register the vehicle with the Swiss DMV - presumably getting the license plates from there, and mount these. This would be different from the usual procedure, where the owner-to-be picks up the plates at the DMV, brings them to Tesla and hands them over for mounting.

Regardless of my interpretation, there seems to be nothing in this post to indicate that the location for the handover has changed, only that the procedure has been modified, with Tesla doing more than before.

Upon re-reading I think you´re right. The word "Auslieferung" (delivery) sounded to me as if they were taking the cars out of the delivery center, but it is in fact more likely only the registration procedure has changed.
 
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I’m not sure where everyone seems to be understanding this Bay Area Edict runs for only 2 weeks. Try 3 weeks.

“This Order shall become effective at 12:01 a.m. on March 17, 2020 and will continue to be in effect until 11:59 p.m. on April 7, 2020, or until it is extended, rescinded, superseded, or amended in writing by the Health Officer.”
 
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