Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[StealthP3D]

While you are probably right that Tesla can deliver all their MIC production locally, it's not necessarily their best option financially.

European FCAU pooling deal should be worth at least $600M this year, but to get that money Tesla needs to sell the cars in Europe. If Fremont reopens soon enough the problem is solved, but if not... then MIC cars are more than badly needed. For example: If Tesla planned shipping 80,000 cars this year to Europe the deal ($600M) makes $7500 extra profit per car. It doesn't matter if those are produced in Fremont or in China, but Tesla is not so stupid they leave that kind of money on the table.

Tesla will not be leaving any money on the table by not shipping GF3 cars to Europe. The FCAU/Tesla deal covers two years (2020-2021) and while we don't have the contract specifics, you can bet FCAU can extend it if they don't have enough suitable EV's of their own to offset their dirty cars on their stated time schedule (hint: they won't).

More importantly, there is no way the Fremont production is going to stay closed for an extended period. The workers want to work, people want to buy the product, the government wants the tax revenue and for unemployment payments to stop, the State of California wants the license revenue, B&O taxes and sales taxes and Tesla knows how to implement a safe work environment in the age of Coronavirus. People talking about an extended shutdown are not thinking clearly. That not how our world works. The lockdown was to blunt the mad spread of serious cases that would overwhelm hospitals and be an unmitigated disaster. The lockdown is working and it will be gradually lifted while keeping in place recommendations for social distancing, face-covering and hand washing. These measures used in conjunction with widespread testing, temperature checks, etc. will allow businesses to safely restart even while large events remain canceled. Manufacturing will be the first to get the green light in those businesses that implement best practices (and Tesla already has experience with CV in China).

While I appreciate alternative views, I just don't think shipping cars from Shanghai to Europe (by rail or by sea) is worth serious consideration. Europe will be getting plenty of US-made cars in 2020 and even 2021 until G4 is cranking out German-made Tesla.

 

[mongo]

I'd say this is likely just another timing issue. Y production was moved forward and the new wiring scheme probably wasn't ready for prime time. I still expect it to happen at some point in the future.

It could, or they have determined the human effort needed to install teh current harness is the most cost effective approach for

He did say that wiring would be substantial less (can't remember the exact number). Hopefully, other respondents are right in that it hasn't materialized because the introduction of the a model Y was pulled forward and that particular wiring harness wasn't ready for prime time

It could also be that the Model 3 ramp issues showed that humans running wiring isn't so bad. And nothing is free. The simplicity of the harness is offset by the additional control electronics needed at the end nodes. A custom communication processor + FETs would definitely help there. Though you still need people to plug the end loads (lights, switch banks).
The world car may end up with the reduced wiring architecture. It can be a clean sheet design with all the end loads design around the new electrical topology.

 

[wipster]

650.95! What an incredible day. The chatter last Thu evening was how TSLA exploded after hours. Today made that look like nothing. The momentum continues after hours (for now).


I don't think Elon's goal has changed. He still wants the other auto companies to join him. The fastest possible transition to renewable energy remains his primary objective.

Some of us said early on C19 might put Tesla in a much stronger market position going forward. Seems like that bandwagon is loaded now. At the same time, this is a competitive business and Elon will attempt to capitalize. If domination is achievable, he'll take it.

I repeat: The day is coming (not soon) when the other auto companies will demand the government protect them and reign in Tesla.

Let them eat Lithium!

 

[mblakele]

California is starting to talk about a plan to lift some restrictions. This could reduce uncertainty over Fremont.

California, Oregon & Washington Announce Western States Pact | California Governor

 

[Cosmacelf]

So much for the "super duper wiring" in the Model Y. Remarks by Elon in products and capabilities used to be correct with only timing being off (though some of the promises still need to materialize)

With the wiring in the Model Y we start to see a plain untruth. Don't like where this is heading..

You're exaggerating or even saying a "plain untruth". If Elon was commenting on a CURRENT product, then yeah, it would be a lie, but he was talking about a future product.

Elon's quote about the Model Y wiring was made in May 2017, almost three years ago. At the time he said it, Tesla was planning on a new radical Model Y design under the hood. IIRC, Elon, at the behest of his management team, subsequently backed down and went with a more conservative Model Y design, one that was more similar to Model 3, both to get to market faster and to save costs. ie. they changed their minds. That is allowed, right?

In the end, Model Y has a heat pump, which is nice positive change, redesigned rear end and many other changes that Munro has highlighted. I suspect the radical new electrical system will make its debut in the Cybertruck.

 

[JustSaying]

an adolescents wet dream?

I am afraid that you might be correct.

 

[Pezpunk]

Spoiler: OT

Was the financial press always so full of shite or just in the last few years? I never read it before I started buying TSLA.

the financial advice press has always, always, always been dominated by blowhards who know far, far less than they think they do. Generally when they were wrong, though, it was because they were mistaken, not mired in ulterior motives. Today, however, the financial incentive to distribute manipulative or outright misinformation is stronger now than it ever has been in the past, and it’s making it harder than it’s ever been to separate fact from objective opinion from disinformation from FUD. Seems like practically every respected institution is now just in it for the clickbait headlines, at BEST.

 

[jschwefel]

I told my wife about selling our TSLA stock to try to "time the market" and get in at a lower price.

I told her it looks as if that attempt has failed.

I said we should still buy it because over the long term it could still go up 10x.

She says in her terse Israeli tone, "Well sounds like you shouldn't have sold it, should you?"

And "you probably would have sold Apple stock before it took off too"

Ouch

As always, listen to your wife.

I’m sorry, but I had to disagree based on the “listen to your wife” advice. I LOVE my wife, but we have very different investment philosophies. She would have sold our TSLA position long ago; me...I bought more recently at 630, 560 and 360. Being invested in the stock since 2013 and adding more every year since, I’ve ridden nearly all of the ups and downs. Recent events, as bad as they are, are another down. From what I can tell and based on the information provided on this forum, Tesla is stronger and more secure than ever before. To me, selling now would be like selling AMZN, PCLN and NFLX years ago, which I did. My only consolation is most of that is now in TSLA, and I’m quite happy with that.

 

[Mo City]

which govt ? Japan, China , Germany ... US will be too slow too react ... US OEMs likely will be gone or making ventilators full time

GM and Ford will lobby and beg for help against big, bad Tesla because they won't play fair. That's what I meant.

Wouldn't surprise me if the Euro companies did the same. Euro regulatory agencies don't hide their jealousy at American success stories they cannot imitate.

 

[dww12]

I want to hear @Papafox rationalize THIS.

We decided to trade like China instead of S&P. NIO was up a similar amount. My timing is horrible.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Let them eat Lithium!

For another quarter or two, at least:

"Ford burns $1.2 billion of cash per week: RBC"

 

[wipster]

For another quarter or two, at least:

"Ford burns $1.2 billion of cash per week: RBC"

Damn... here comes another bailout. Surprised they're not want prepayment for making ventilators.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Looks like somebody executed 16 call contracts @ $272.50 at 18:50 hrs and another 15 contracts @ $330 at 18:53

That'll work. After-hrs SP returned to $676 afterward.

Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) Interactive Chart

 

[willow_hiller]

Looks like somebody executed 16 call contracts @ $272.50 at 18:50 hrs and another 15 contracts @ $330 at 18:53

That'll work. After-hrs SP returned to $676 afterward.

Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) Interactive Chart

I guess we know what it takes to form those icicles in the chart now. About 3,100 shares at low volumes.

 

[Artful Dodger]

I guess we know what it takes to form those icicles in the chart now. About 3,100 shares at low volumes.

Yeah, I think this was an 'Options' execution, not a trade based on the current market price. The purchaser likely wants the actual shares themselves, not the cash value of the contract.

Smart choice, IMHO.

 

[T3slaLuv]

Hey guys! New here. Is tsla a buy right now or no

 

[mongo]

Looks like somebody executed 16 call contracts @ $272.50 at 18:50 hrs and another 15 contracts @ $330 at 18:53

That'll work. After-hrs SP returned to $676 afterward.

Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) Interactive Chart

Can't see the blips you are referring to(mobile) but it is unlikely that options were the cause. Firstly becuase most don't trade after hours. But more importantly, they only trade at the strike price between the buyer and writer. The transaction should not show up on the ticker. Even if it was a naked call, the deficit in shares would be a buy at market.

If Adam wrote the contract and Joe bought and executed it, Adam would have 100 less shares and $27k more cash in their account.
Now, having executed it (during market hours), Joe could sell the shares after hours which would push down the stock price per the bid list, but the strike price of the options is not a factor.

 

[Pezpunk]

Hey guys! New here. Is tsla a buy right now or no

my standard answer is i don't know where TSLA will be in a week or a month or even a year, but i know where it will be ten years from now.

 

[MTL_HABS1909]

Did anyone else lose all their free supercharger kilometers? I don’t see how this helps Tesla in any way. It costs them almost nothing to give this free charging, but taking it away will lead to a lot of bad press.

 

[juanmedina]

Did anyone else lose all their free supercharger kilometers? I don’t see how this helps Tesla in any way. It costs them almost nothing to give this free charging, but taking it away will lead to a lot of bad press.

they expire after 6 months that is my understanding