Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Doit]

Those are called scissor doors, for anyone unfamiliar. They offer many of the advantages of gull wings with regard to parking, but have fewer moving parts.

So..... progress, I guess?

 

[Cattledog]

Performing on an Olympic team level is not necessarily comfortable for anyone and is certainly not for everyone.

Over a decade ago, Tesla used to include the following in their job postings:

“You must have a passion for engineering electric vehicles. Without passion, you would find what we are doing too difficult. There are easier jobs.”

I wonder if it's still there or if the last decade has anesthetized it out. It seems like it's still true.

 

[NeuroticDen_51]

Multiple posters, including myself…
…the uberbull answer

Hello to one of the longest running den inhabitants! (Since retiring the main)
Go team go!

 

[EVMeister]

 

[geometro]

What happened?

 

[EVMeister]

What happened?

Nothing important. But this "NeuroticDen_51" person who just turned up gave intense flashbacks of an old member we used to have here called Neroden.

 

[sunwarriors]

Speak to most people who work in finance. The hatchet will fall for less of a reason than "my bosses boss screwed up". If the directive comes from the top that costs need to drop you'll be collecting your box of personal items from HR without ever going back to the building.

You're comparing Tesla to finance? What about the mission, startup mode, hardcore/demon mode, changing society/the world?

I don't think tech workers or high risk, non-stop work types is anything like a simple finance org/other companies. A lot of the top tech people that Tesla wants will have a lot of options as to where they work. They are the ones that Tesla can't afford to lose. These actions don't help and it was mentioned from folks who left, quit (that head of product launch stuck his neck out). Maybe it'll all pass and we'll see, but burning folks and asking/begging for them to come back doesn't sound like a great strategy. People won't badmouth their old employer for obvious reasons, and I'm not Tesla material (not worth it), but some workers are just asking for some stability and until that happens, it's going to be a concerned Sunday for a lot of folks updating resumes and lower morale.

If anything, back to what some folks said about startups will eat old legacy folks, I think and I'd bet (and would if I could) on Wayve as the small 'startup' that will do what Tesla will do. It's impossible IMO to turn a 560 billion company with 100k+ employees into a startup. Maybe it's still early days over there and they are against long odds, but they are the true startup here with a small valuation, a clear mission, less distractions, just closed a billion in funding, etc.

 

[AndrewZ]

Mercedes said they solved it.

I think Mercedes has been very clear about both the capabilities and limitations of their system (which is NVIDIA’s tech), it’s all very detailed and spelled out up front.

Unlike some other companies who shall remain nameless.

 

[Zaddy Daddy]

Tesla introduced 0% financing in China on 4/24, and the 2 weeks since, 4/22-5/5, showed the highest sales (weekly insurance regs) for weeks 4-5 in all recent quarters, after wks 1-3 got off to the worst start of any recent quarters. Q2 week 5 has China's Labor holiday, and they're doing much better this year compared with how much it dropped off last year. Roland Pircher has a good visualization on this

https://twitter.com/x/status/1787741959286563300

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GM9VvKlXIAANGcL?format=jpg&name=large

Hard to show causality here with big variance in weekly China numbers.

They guided 75% growth this year. And since Q1 was flat y/y, Q2-Q4 must roughly double. Megapacks are long lead items, so they have good visibility.

I agree vehicle outlook is not so good.

Guided 75% growth in production or revenue recognition?

The latter is dependent on production rates that occurred ~9 months prior. No real increase in Lathrop production since Q1 or Q2 2023. No evidence yet that production is ramping up to 40GWh rate yet, so at minimum don’t see big revenue growth until Q1 2025 at minimum.

Maybe they expect to get production rate up 75% by end of Q4, that’s totally possible.

 

[Singuy]

I think Mercedes has been very clear about both the capabilities and limitations of their system (which is NVIDIA’s tech), it’s all very detailed and spelled out up front.

Unlike some other companies who shall remain nameless.

Mercedes have been very clear that they have the "world first L3" car for sale. Yeah even this statement isn't true...lol.

 

[jerry33]

Mercedes said they solved it.

Or at least they've solved it as long as it's following a car going no faster than 40 mph on selected roads. One hopes these roads will never have a sinkhole.

 

[Musskiah]

Or at least they've solved it as long as it's following a car going no faster than 40 mph on selected roads. One hopes these roads will never have a sinkhole.

In the daytime, without inclimate weather, as long as the car is equipped with the costly array of required technological upgrades....etc...etc.

If this was Tesla's "solution" Business Insider, Bloomberg, NBS, Wall Street Journal, Reuters, and the other usual suspects would have a field day. Of course, since it's not Tesla, Mercedes is touted as having a true Level 3 system, when it takes only a minute of shallow analysis to easily conclude that this system is far more limited and less capable than FSD. Anyone who claims otherwise is not being honest.

 

[MC3OZ]

I think a lot of this discussion about the supercharger team firing (and the re-hires reported to have taken place), and it's potential PR impact, effect on employee morale, possible indication Tesla is getting out of the charging business, etc... misses what happens with many of the moves that Elon makes: the context of Elon's motivation is not factored in.

Looking at these actions in the context of "How typical businesses are run", "the immediate share price", "people's opinions or feelings", "his personal net worth", etc... is not how Elon looks at things.

He doesn't care about share price - He's said, if the near-term stock price concerns you, please sell our stock and don't buy it.

He doesn't care about how rich he can get. When he surpassed Bezos as richest man, he said: "Huh.. interesting. OK, back to work.."

He doesn't care about carrying dead weight. He's said "The longer it takes to fire somebody, the longer it's been since you should have fried them"

He's not overly sentimental - He fired his long time loyal personal assistant simply because he thought it represented an inefficiency.

He doesn't care about "sunk costs". If you've put lots of time, effort, and $$$ into an endeavor that appears to be the wrong direction, he'll scuttle it regardless if you are 95% there.


Here's what he does care about. What he considers "correct". Keeping ourselves from making the planet uninhabitable. The ultimate goal of preserving "the light of consciousness".

He also is of the opinion that because these are such laudable goals, in the long term they'll inarguably provide such value that they can be sustained, and he won't have to live to sleep on a friend's couch again, but will if he has to.


So, if the team reached 90% and there's no valid reason for not reaching 100%, that's not an A. It's a failure to reach what should have been, He's not afraid to fail (see also: how not to land an orbital rocket). But if you can't reach a reachable goal, he'll find someone who can.

If folks find that demoralizing rather than recognizing he's serious about getting things done, you probably aren't right for the team.

If people on the outside want to moan and groan, he doesn't really have time to spend arguing with them, he'd rather execute his better plan, and in time people will shut up when they recognize the value.


He's on the spectrum. He's a bit of a cyborg. He doesn't have time to be nice. He can't tolerate mediocrity, or even excellence that still falls short. He's driven by what he sees as a threat to the entirety of the human race.

The lens of he's got sh!t to get done, explains a lot, IMO.

This is a quality post and I think that forum members could create a thread and refence quality posts that we think are worth reading.

If we provide that additional service, it will save some of us some valuable time.

The only rule I would like to see mods informally enforce is, people can't link their own post in that thread.

 

[Stretch2727]

This is a quality post and I think that forum members could create a thread and refence quality posts that we think are worth reading.

If we provide that additional service, it will save some of us some valuable time.

The only rule I would like to see mods informally enforce is, people can't link their own post in that thread.

It already somewhat exists but the mods control based on input from others.....but last post added in January.

Moderators' Choice: Posts of Particular Merit

This thread displays posts from the Investor Sector that the Moderators deem worthy of an especial place where they most easily can be located and re-located. Moderators have been collecting such posts over a period of time; to the extent more time appears on the event horizon then perhaps some...

teslamotorsclub.com

 

[MC3OZ]

It already somewhat exists but the mods control based on input from others.....but last post added in January.

Moderators' Choice: Posts of Particular Merit

This thread displays posts from the Investor Sector that the Moderators deem worthy of an especial place where they most easily can be located and re-located. Moderators have been collecting such posts over a period of time; to the extent more time appears on the event horizon then perhaps some...

teslamotorsclub.com

Yes, I am aware of that thread.

We also occasionally link some posts from here in other threads.

IMO "particular merit" is different to "quality", but only 5% or less of this thread is "quality".

And that percentage has taken a deep dive in recent months,

 

[SO16]

I didn’t realize so many vehicles had low financing rates.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1789818904040046978

 

[Musskiah]

I think Mercedes has been very clear about both the capabilities and limitations of their system (which is NVIDIA’s tech), it’s all very detailed and spelled out up front.

Unlike some other companies who shall remain nameless.

What a joke Mercedes is. Not sure if this Mercedes vs Tesla autonomy video was already posted. Punchline: Mercedes requires 44 interventions with many extremely rookie mistakes typical of maybe late 2022 FSD. There is absolutely no comparison. The Mercedes product should be taken off the market, it's inexcusably horrific. See for yourself...

 

[Knightshade]

What a joke Mercedes is. Not sure if this Mercedes vs Tesla autonomy video was already posted. Punchline: Mercedes requires 44 interventions with many extremely rookie mistakes typical of maybe late 2022 FSD. There is absolutely no comparison. The Mercedes product should be taken off the market, it's inexcusably horrific. See for yourself...

To be fair the test is running on roads the Mercedes system is explicitly not supposed to be used on.


It'd be the same as if someone tested basic autopilot then complained they had to intervene at every intersection that wasn't a green light.

The fact Omar is involved can give you some idea why they'd do such a ridiculously dishonest comparison.


I'm not even sure how they got it to engage- it's not supposed to... (unless they're ALSO pretending that's the L3 system in operation instead of the L2 one)

 

[Singuy]

To be fair the test is running on roads the Mercedes system is explicitly not supposed to be used on.


It'd be the same as if someone tested basic autopilot then complained they had to intervene at every intersection that wasn't a green light.

The fact Omar is involved can give you some idea why they'd do such a ridiculously dishonest comparison.


I'm not even sure how they got it to engage- it's not supposed to... (unless they're ALSO pretending that's the L3 system in operation instead of the L2 one)

Omar's intention is to review a system Consumer report stated that is rated higher than AP. All bets are off when it comes to how or where anything is used. If CR is telling their audience is better, well let's see what it's made of.

Oh btw this test was not some crazy gauntlet involving blind upl 6 lane 50 mph cross traffic kind of test. The mercedes just had to go straight in light traffic....

So if mercedes are explicitly calling foul, then CR should just stfu next time if they can't compare apples to apples.

 

[dhanson865]

Yeah, I don't care what the requirements to use it are, if it can't handle a nice sunny day test it shouldn't get 10/10 ahead of Tesla on capabilities and performance.