Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[RobStark]

IHME model just updated

Projects containment phase to start May 20.

Monday June 1 should be absolute latest Fremont restarts.

 

[FrankSG]

@FrankSG 's bull case model is estimating -$0.78 GAAP diluted and $0.78 non-GAAP diluted respectively: Near-future quarterly financial projections

I don't do bull/bear cases for earnings forecasts. The $0.78 non-GAAP is simply about where I expect it to end up.

However, at the time I didn't yet know about the $134M in EU credits sold to FCA in 2019. @The Accountant commented that he'd guess Tesla will most likely recognize those credits in Q1, so taking those into consideration my $0.78 non-GAAP profit should be taken as conservative if anything.

 

[ZeApelido]

Uh oh....

View attachment 536592

Did you see the John McAfee tweet Elon liked? Pathetic.

 

[Remus]

This is a discussion of whether CA can afford to continue shutting down manufacturing for another month.

If you think that doesn't directly affect TSLA marketplace performance, I would be shocked.

By the way I have made my points.

California is between a rock and a hard spot.

I live in the silicone valley. We had the earliest known community spread in the country in a densely populated metropolitan area. Yet now the hospitals are pretty empty.

With all that and Newsom's approval rating off the charts I don't think that is an accurate description of the situation.

 

[Artful Dodger]

I live in the silicone valley.

<Insert Meme here>

 

[goinfraftw]

One heck of a slide deck.

https://data.bloomberglp.com/promo/sites/12/678001-BNEF_2020-04-22-ExecutiveFactbook.pdf

 

[Steve m]

I live in the silicone valley. We had the earliest known community spread in the country in a densely populated metropolitan area. Yet now the hospitals are pretty empty.

With all that and Newsom's approval rating off the charts I don't think that is an accurate description of the situation.

If California can continue to pay it's bills while keeping its businesses shut down more power to them. I am skeptical they can do so.

 

[StealthP3D]

As a 3rd generation resident, I can confidently say that California is a terrible place to manufacture anything. Fortunately, a nearly-free plant helps to hold down fixed costs.

I disagree because I think the ready access to all the silicon, software and other technical expertise is a major reason that Tesla is kicking the butts of the big car makers. I would argue they couldn't have picked a better spot to disrupt the ICE industry. Not only that, but new cars roll right off the production line and into the largest EV market in the US. It's even ideal for some reasons that probably weren't even apparent when they chose the location. For example, they couldn't have built the 3rd Model 3 production line in a tent if they were in Detroit!

You are implying Tesla made a poor choice when they picked Fremont. I think they made an unconventional choice based on first principles thinking that was absolutely brilliant. A major reason Tesla has been so successful is they make consistently good decisions every step of the way.

 

[MC3OZ]

I disagree because I think the ready access to all the silicon, software and other technical expertise is a major reason that Tesla is kicking the butts of the big car makers. I would argue they couldn't have picked a better spot to disrupt the ICE industry. Not only that, but new cars roll right off the production line and into the largest EV market in the US. It's even ideal for some reasons that probably weren't even apparent when they chose the location. For example, they couldn't have built the 3rd Model 3 production line in a tent if they were in Detroit!

You are implying Tesla made a poor choice when they picked Fremont. I think they made an unconventional choice based on first principles thinking that was absolutely brilliant. A major reason Tesla has been so successful is they make consistently good decisions every step of the way.

There is no way that in 2010, Tesla would have known about COVID-19 and the current county policy about reopening factories...

At least no way Elon will admit too, if true, that means he also knows what happens next.

 

[Pezpunk]

On Tuesday, you said this about Elon:


Do you not think the County government could be wrong about anything? Like whether Tesla is capable of manufacturing safely in the current climate? The courts exist, in more than a small part, as a check on government powers. It's the only avenue to correct a wrong. Challenging the wisdom of a government entity does not automatically tarnish your reputation, it's a right that should be exercised when appropriate. The court exists to determine who is in the right.

I shouldn't have to say this but a county administrator is the final word on exactly nothing. They have all the power in the world, but only until you challenge them.

i didn't say it'd be unsafe to open the factory. i didn't say Tesla couldn't win a legal fight with a local government. i didn't say it'd be immoral to sue a government.

i said it'd badly tarnish its reputation, and i think that's definitely true. especially true to several demographics that are most likely to buy a Tesla. Right now, it's the dumbest, most ignorant, selfish, and ugliest people in this country who are out protesting the closures. For Tesla to sue a government to re-open their factory, they'd be lumping themselves in with those dingdongs. It would tarnish their reputation, if this came to a contentious legal fight, regardless of whether the factory can be safely reopened or not.

i hope the factory opens as soon as safely possible (i am not in a position to intelligently judge when that is -- if it's today, awesome! if not, bummer!). But that's kind of irrelevant -- the bottom line is Tesla should avoid the hugely bigly bad look of appearing to side with the absolute worst dregs of humanity, just to add a few measly weeks of production that won't matter one bit in the long run.

 

[Buckminster]

LA coalition proposes $150 billion in nationwide stimulus for vehicle electrification - Electrek
$150Bn buys 2 million Teslas. Well, what else are they gonna buy....?

 

[Remus]

If California can continue to pay it's bills while keeping its businesses shut down more power to them. I am skeptical they can do so.

In my opinion it may be unwise for Tesla to fight with the local authority on this matter.

It helps to put things in perspective. No doubt this pandemic is a big problem for state tax income but which states are "immune"? I don't believe it hits CA particularly hard. At least most tech companies are not feeling lots of pains.

We had the first shelter in place order in the whole country and it's widely supported by the community. Dr Sarah Cody was praised by many for making that decision. I think Tesla fighting with that order might tarnish it's image in the most Tesla friendly market in the whole world.

A more friendly negotiation with the local government demonstrating the safety precautions adopted would be better. With proven procedures from Shanghai they can even advise the government on this matter. And in my opinion they probably get a green light in 4-6 weeks.

 

[AZRI11]

We're up 7 euros with 46 shares traded. Frankfurt stock exchange

 

[MC3OZ]

In my opinion it may be unwise for Tesla to fight with the local authority on this matter.

It helps to put things in perspective. No doubt this pandemic is a big problem for state tax income but which states are "immune"? I don't believe it hits CA particularly hard. At least most tech companies are not feeling lots of pains.

We had the first shelter in place order in the whole country and it's widely supported by the community. Dr Sarah Cody was praised by many for making that decision. I think Tesla fighting with that order might tarnish it's image in the most Tesla friendly market in the whole world.

A more friendly negotiation with the local government demonstrating the safety precautions adopted would be better. With proven procedures from Shanghai they can even advise the government on this matter. And in my opinion they probably get a green light in 4-6 weeks.

There is a difference between, discuss, negotiate, a "contest strongly" and flight...

I'm happy for Tesla to "contest strongly", but not fight.

The difference is "contest strongly" happens initially behind the scenes, not in a public brawl...

IMO "contest strongly" is a strong evidence based risk management strategy in writing, backed by political lobbying, and perhaps public expressions of disappointment.... and a perhaps even a claim for compensation...

Fight is ignore the local authorities, or take court action, any legal action will be slow, and any public disobedience could end badly, fight is too risky, and more likely to bring adverse consequences...

Either way, I suspect we will find out in earnings..

 

[Remus]

There is a difference between, discuss, negotiate, a "contest strongly" and flight...

I'm happy for Tesla to "contest strongly", but not fight.

The difference is "contest strongly" happens initially behind the scenes, not in a public brawl...

IMO "contest strongly" is a strong evidence based risk management strategy in writing, backed by political lobbying, and perhaps public expressions of disappointment.... and a perhaps even a claim for compensation...

Fight is ignore the local authorities, or take court action, any legal action will be slow, and any public disobedience could end badly, fight is too risky, and more likely to bring adverse consequences...

Either way, I suspect we will find out in earnings..

The six county are already laying out plans for easing restrictions and from may 3rd at least landscaping services would be allowed. Newsom mentioned the state government is developing plans for gradual opening in several weeks. I hope Tesla can provide input for the government's opening plan.

 

[MC3OZ]

The six county are already laying out plans for easing restrictions and from may 3rd at least landscaping services would be allowed. Newsom mentioned the state government is developing plans for gradual opening in several weeks. I hope Tesla can provide input for the government's opening plan.

Yes, likely there is middle ground there, where Tesla is perhaps delayed a week or two, but everyone is happy.

 

[RobStark]

Model 3 beats Zoe in Europe 2020 YTD!

EV Sales: Europe March 2020

 

[Artful Dodger]

Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) Pre-Market Trading

Pre-Market High:
$798.00
Volume:
14,725 shares
(05:27:32 AM)​

Within $0.75 of yesterday's Close. Elmo' FUD is taking a beating this month...

Cheers!

 

[Artful Dodger]

"Tesla Earnings Preview - Q1 2020 Estimates and What to Watch for (TSLA)" | Rob Mauer | Tesla Daily Podcast:

 

[LN1_Casey]

Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) Pre-Market Trading

Pre-Market High:
$798.00
Volume:
14,725 shares
(05:27:32 AM)​

Within $0.25 of yesterday's Close.

Cheers!

Someone's trying real hard to keep it under 800.