Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[sparcs]

I think it's too soon to say with any certainty that Tesla can't pull a small profit this quarter for SP500 inclusion. Most of the US workers are currently furloughed and Tesla doesn't have to buy parts for cars that aren't built.

Did Tesla furlough all the engineering teams along with manufacturing? I thought some portion might be able to work from home.

 

[Chunky Jr.]

I may soon regret selling 50 shares at 940 a couple months ago

 

[Pras]

Honest disclaimer: yesterday I did sell Jan 2021 $1200 covered calls. Now a bit of regret, but nobody should get too greedy.

edit: sold covered calls (not just calls)

 

[juanmedina]

I may soon regret selling 50 shares at 940 a couple months ago

that makes no sense

 

[BenPrice]

Honest disclaimer: yesterday I did sell Jan 2021 $1200 calls. Now a bit of regret but, nobody should get too greedy.

Profit is profit.

 

[Christine69420]

Yes - a polka as promised. And Guns n' Roses. And $871.

Sweet Stock o' Mine

- Where do we go now, where do we go now - sweet child of mine

 

[JusRelax]

Has anyone noticed that IV on options going into this extremely hyped earnings report has been noticeably going down? I understand macro impact had significantly increased IV yadda yadda yadda... but do the options writers have it wrong, actually decreasing the premium for options going into this earnings report?

View attachment 537107

I have a message from the MM's:

"Whoopsie... we made a booboo."

 

[wipster]

that makes no sense

Not when the SP is a grand...

 

[Webeevdrivers]

So your wiener is helping the mission to reduce climate change and fossil fuel dependence.

 

[BenPrice]

I have a message from the MM's:

"Whoopsie... we made a booboo."

Lol next month another market maker discloses a multi percent holding


Thanks for the $ citadel

 

[Pras]

Profit is profit.

True that.

I have been giggling since someone sold me his/her tsla at 392!! Now I think I am overwhelmed with all this money! Can’t even go out to celebrate.

edit: of course I am not overwhelmed (in case you took me seriously)

 

[BenPrice]

Has anyone noticed that IV on options going into this extremely hyped earnings report has been noticeably going down? I understand macro impact had significantly increased IV yadda yadda yadda... but do the options writers have it wrong, actually decreasing the premium for options going into this earnings report?

View attachment 537107

On this note I’d imagine VIX is more important than impending earnings...

And we’ve seen literal record vix

 

[mikevbf]

 

[Quesder]

Well, AH $867 now. I knew $880 level is hard to maintain and probably not realistic at this point... but that was a good time

 

[juanmedina]

Not when the SP is a grand...

why would not you buy tomorrow at $900

 

[Krugerrand]

Like I wrote: "This can do nothing but cause grief." Jumping into an emotional political situation with simplistic exhortations (Twitter doesn't support much more nuance than that), will just cause people to get upset. The noise will drown out any stuff that matters. People will get into raging arguments throwing Elon's name around and misrepresenting that what he wrote supports their extreme position.

It isn't funny. It isn't informative. It's just provocative and stupid. It doesn't matter what side of the argument he's on. You know his position must be deeply thought out and nuanced, but that can't possibly come through in this medium.

Meh. So the usual where the end result is that it just didn’t matter in the scheme of things. Smoke a blunt, some people lose their minds, and it just didn’t matter.

You think it’ll only cause grief and upset people. Guess what, I’m a people and it doesn’t even register on my upset scale and certainly I’m not grieved by it and I’m all in TSLA. People get upset and argue because they want to, because there’s a payoff for them.

Some people need to pay more attention to their own house. Some people need to learn to stop giving their power away to others. Some people should reel in their judgmental(ness) lest they be judged just as harshly.

It’s all just a big ball of meh from where I’m standing. You might ask yourself just why it upsets you so. And don’t say because it only causes grief and people to argue. That is NOT your reason for being upset.

Here’s a hint: most upset, anger and the like comes from fear.

 

[EcoBruin]

Well, AH $867 now. I knew $880 level is hard to maintain and probably not realistic at this point... but that was a good time

Still showing ~875 at TDameritrade

 

[BenPrice]

Well, AH $867 now. I knew $880 level is hard to maintain and probably not realistic at this point... but that was a good time

I’m thinking 850 at open tomorrow. But it’s entirely valid now. This quarter was going to be a freaking blowout if not for corona and now everybody else falls further behind. It’s now a bloodbath. I wouldn’t be shocked if we hit 2k this year given.

Every dollar above 850 at open for me is a gift.

Not a bad thing.

Unless call goes above/below expectations.

 

[Prunesquallor]

Auto margin (non-lease) works out to 18.5% vs 19.9% in Q4. This doesn't include regulatory credits.

$354M in regulatory credit vs $133M in Q4. FCA is paying handsomely. Should we expect to have this kind of credit every quarter … or is that based on # of deliveries in Europe ? This is going to add a lot of uncertainty going forward - atleast in Q2.

That's a lot of credits. InsideEV's reported 21,225 Teslas sold in Q1 in Europe.

Europe: Tesla Model 3 Sales Surged In March To #1 In Q1 2020

so that would be $16,700 per vehicle! Per some earlier analysis I did, those would all be "Supercredit" vehicles with a maximum penalty reduction value of $21,194 each (19,490€) which would imply FCA is paying Tesla ~80% of their penalty reduction value. That seems like an awfully lot.

There are a lot of variables in those calculations, mainly the number of FCA ICE vehicles sold. I may try to dig that up when tonight's hangover wears off.

 

[BornToFly]

Elon's tweet suggests that Fremont won't open for another month. Q2 will be a disaster with only one month of production in the US. No S&P 500 this year. I'm predicting we are below 700 at the end of the week. (Since I'm usually wrong, now is a good time to buy OTM calls while I miss out....)

P.S. - I've learned that for the opposite to happen, I have to actually post my thoughts on the www so the world can keep track of how often I'm wrong. You're welcome, again.

Holy Sh!T it worked!!!!