And now he's retweeting people who quoted him on the commentary... Nice Elon, nice
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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
- Start date
it's wild! he doesn't have to make this the story from the call, but he is!
Maybe he just knows I'm sitting on a large cash pile and I missed the first oppertunity to buy at $400, and wants to give me another chance?
My take on earnings:
Financial results were solid, but pretty much exactly in line with what I expected if you exclude the $200M in additional credits sales. I had read through the ER before I looked at the SP, and I was expecting it to most likely be between $850 and $900, maybe $900+, because I expected the market react positively to the net income beat, even though it's largely attributable to credits sales. This turned out to be spot on.
Other than that there were a few negatives and a few positives that stood out to me in both the report and during the call:
Negatives:
Positives:
Financial results were solid, but pretty much exactly in line with what I expected if you exclude the $200M in additional credits sales. I had read through the ER before I looked at the SP, and I was expecting it to most likely be between $850 and $900, maybe $900+, because I expected the market react positively to the net income beat, even though it's largely attributable to credits sales. This turned out to be spot on.
Other than that there were a few negatives and a few positives that stood out to me in both the report and during the call:
Negatives:
- FCF was quite a bit worse than I expected. I knew the increase in inventory would have a negative impact, but I was still expecting about break even, rather than almost negative $1B. I'm not worried about Tesla's cash position though, so I don't care too much about this.
- It appears as if Fremont is going to cap at 500k 3+Y per year. I was expecting/hoping they'd go up to 750k. It sounds like they believe long term M3 demand in North America might be 200-250k, and MY demand about double. So I now expect Fremont to do 5k/week of each, and a 2nd Giga in USA to produce an additional 5k/week MY.
- Looks like the near term Shanghai production target is 4k/week rather than the 5k/week I anticipated.
- The answer to my Solar Roof question was a little disappointing. I was secretly hoping for more ambitious targets after seeing the 1k/week production tweet last month, but it sounds like Solar Roof will only reach 1k/week installations by late 2020 or early 2021, and perhaps 2k/week by the end of 2021. The long term potential seems great, but it sounds like Tesla does not have enough resources to ramp this product as fast as its automotive products.
Positives:
- Elon continues to be very bullish about FSD on every call. He is only barely walking back some of the targets he set out during the Autonomy investor day. Sounds like he expects somewhere in between feature complete and hands-off this year, and hands-off robotaxis next year. Although I don't believe this will happen, his comments make me want to be very bullish on "safer than a human" FSD in at least some geographical regions in the 2022/2023 time frame.
- An increase in order backlog both for automotive and battery storage, in spite of COVID-19, is a very strong sign. I remain quite optimistic about Tesla achieving at least 500k vehicle deliveries this year. If the Fremont shut down is extended by another month, that could cut it quite close, but these are great signals about demand nonetheless. I also like the way they're handling guidance. Happiness = Reality - Expectations seems to be their motto as of right now.
- The hype around battery day remains as strong as ever. "The best day in Tesla's history". And it sounds like the Gigafactory in Texas will be exclusively for battery production.
- Another Gigafactory announcement within 1-3 months is almost just as much hype. I took it as being a different factory than the battery Gigafactory in Texas, probably the Eastern USA factory for Cybertruck and Model Y we've been hearing rumors about.
- Elon's answer to the 50% growth rate and 4M+ in 2025 and 20M+ in 2030 was also very positive to me. Although I personally was already expecting ~4-5M by 2025, and by 2030 12M+ in a worst case and 20M+ in a best case, Elon more-or-less confirming this bodes well for Tesla's internal long term aspirations.
I think it is right only in the sense of how the broken window at the Cybertruck reveal turned out to be right... i.e it is not intentional but sometimes even Elon's missteps turn out well, and that is a sign of true genus.
Looking at why people buy Tesla cars today:-
- Agree with Telsa's mission (including me)
- Like to drive a nice car with good handing and performance (including me)
- Personal fan of Elon (I like Elon, but does not affect buying decisions)
- Don't like the mission - or change more generally.
- Don't like Elon
- Perceive Tesla as left wing or California
- Think EVs are not real cars..
I don't think that is what Elon intends any more than he intended the broken window at the Cybertruck reveal.
Let's face it Elon is very smart, very driven, and does a lot of great things, he isn't perfect and he doesn't get everything right. But I've never seen anyone so able to learn from their mistakes and turn mistakes around into a net positive... part of that is never giving up and part is attention to detail...
Even though I accept Elon is partially wrong in his messaging, we have to accept him for what he is, and also accept that Tesla will win in the end regardless.
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I don't model this as of right now. Even if it's $10-20M per quarter, it's too small for now and doesn't really make my model more accurate as of this time in my opinion.
MTL_HABS1909
Active Member
Solar roof I think Q1 is seasonal bad for Solar installs Q2 and Q3 should be better.
It also takes time to train installation teams and ramp this up, form now on there sold be a trend of growth most quarters except for Q1 2021.
Q2 earnings is very tricky to call at present, the Solar Roof or energy storage can make a more substantial contribution Q2/Q3, but wether than helps make the Q2 numbers look good is anyone's guess.
Taking out COVID-19 and Fremont being closed, Q1 is a very strong result, and the long term trend is all in the right direction.
MTL_HABS1909
Active Member
I’m so sick of people ranting about how Elon runs his company. Tesla is where it is (and you’ve made as much money off of TSLA as you have) because of how Elon runs Tesla. So please give it a rest because it’s getting really old.
If you think abt it, Trump’s support (not his little Trumpsters) will help his situation w Newsome. Maybe he is trying to influence the WH. Or TX
Krugerrand
Meow
Just spoke with someone (ex-cop) today from the coast, police there are actively looking for order offenders and handing out fines. Same person told me a private contractor acquaintance got pulled over in his work truck on the way to a job - also got fined and told to go home.
willow_hiller
Well-Known Member
Just to be clear, I am happy with the way Larry Hogan has handled the situation in Maryland, but I'm surprised fines are all you're getting on the West coast. Things seem to be a bit more serious here: MD State Police on Twitter
"
As of yesterday afternoon, since 3/24 police across #Maryland had conducted 16,822 compliance checks, responded to 1,296 calls for service related to compliance with the Executive Order of
@GovLarryHogan
and arrested/charged 28 people for violation of that order.
@MDMEMA
"
How valid an indicator are Troy's order tracking spreadsheets?
For example, as a forward indicator of Q2 sales and demand at this point in time.
I do realise that April 2020 still has one day to go. I haven't posted Model S/X because the volume in the spreadsheet is too low to be reliable.
Please don't hurt me for posting something that potentially has a bearish tone. I'm only asking the question, and a perfectly acceptable answer is: "No, they're not, and this is why..."
Source of data:
Teslike Model 3 Survey #4
Teslike Model Y Survey & Order Tracker
For example, as a forward indicator of Q2 sales and demand at this point in time.
I do realise that April 2020 still has one day to go. I haven't posted Model S/X because the volume in the spreadsheet is too low to be reliable.
Please don't hurt me for posting something that potentially has a bearish tone. I'm only asking the question, and a perfectly acceptable answer is: "No, they're not, and this is why..."
Source of data:
Teslike Model 3 Survey #4
Teslike Model Y Survey & Order Tracker
MTL_HABS1909
Active Member
Just in case people think this isn’t happening:
Quebec provincial police handed out almost 500 COVID-19-related tickets in a week
@Krugerrand I think he is questioning demand.How valid an indicator are Troy's order tracking spreadsheets?
For example, as a forward indicator of Q2 sales and demand at this point in time.
View attachment 537321
View attachment 537322
I do realise that April 2020 still has one day to go. I haven't posted Model S/X because the volume in the spreadsheet is too low to be reliable.
Please don't hurt me for posting something that potentially has a bearish tone. I'm only asking the question, and a perfectly acceptable answer is: "No, they're not, and this is why..."
Source of data:
Teslike Model 3 Survey #4
Teslike Model Y Survey & Order Tracker
Why do people keep saying this? Elon is still the CEO of Tesla, that was one thing they wouldn't give-in to the SEC on. (What he is no longer is the Chairman of the Board of Directors.)
Krugerrand
Meow
You DID hear 57 minutes of things you wanted to hear about and a lousy 3 minutes about something you didn’t.
Don’t exaggerate and make it out to be something than it was. You’re better than that. Right?
Get real, please. Current average salary in Ho Chi Minh $148/mo, highly paid professionals make around $500/mo.
Back in the '90's when your regulation free utopia was created, workers were making less than $1/day. They moved manufacturing from the USA to achieve fantastic profits at the expense of American manufacturing capability.
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