Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Zaxxon]

IIRC Tesla sells in 4kW units. A customer can choose 4, 8 or 12 kW.

Not for solar roof, no.

 

[dakh]

Side note before the ER: there might be some merit to stock going up based on AP progress. From the financial perspective it is a nuclear bomb. Just in short term (year or two), even if we think very conservatively, say .5M existing vehicles that didn't already pay for AP will decide to pay lump sum of $30K, that's $15B in the bank with next to zero marginal cost. Plus a large proportion of them will likely be profit sharing in the ride hail network. Silly money and that's just very short term. Any progress on AP should be priced in with an eye on how is that affecting probable future cash flows. Unlike everyone else in the race, Tesla is now testing the actual real thing that drives cars on city streets with a massive fleet and geo coverage, experiencing real life situations and FREE and willing supervising human drivers. It's no small potatoes.

Edit: something that might not be obvious to non-experts: yes the tech and expertise to produce working neural nets is essential but it is just means to an end. What makes the whole thing possible is the training dataset. Given a good enough training dataset, there will be many teams capable of training a good NN out of that. It isn't exactly that simple but the "proceed through the intersection" confirmation that Tesla is collecting on every intersection now is a massive boost to their ability to create a good enough training dataset to solve this aspect of self driving.

Heh, pat myself on the back: Elon started ER call with pretty much this.

 

[Rammstein]

You know that how ?

I know if you don’t open the economy it will eventually cause a depression. I think it’s obvious this will cause a ton of deaths.

 

[MC3OZ]

How valid an indicator are Troy's order tracking spreadsheets?

For example, as a forward indicator of Q2 sales and demand at this point in time.

View attachment 537321

View attachment 537322

I do realise that April 2020 still has one day to go. I haven't posted Model S/X because the volume in the spreadsheet is too low to be reliable.

Please don't hurt me for posting something that potentially has a bearish tone. I'm only asking the question, and a perfectly acceptable answer is: "No, they're not, and this is why..."

Source of data:
Teslike Model 3 Survey #4
Teslike Model Y Survey & Order Tracker

Tesla gave some guidance on demand in the earnings call.

I'm backing official guidance from Tesla to be more relevant than Troy's spreadsheet in the long run....

Demand is an issue for all car makers at present, some potential buyers are waiting for more clarity on COVID-19.

Q2 is going to challenging, but I think production is more challenging than demand, Tesla seems motivated to reopen Fremont ASAP..

 

[SageBrush]

Last I checked governments are elected by the people for the people, and 80% of Americans support the SIP measures to suppress the spread and a similar number express readiness for measures to extend through the middle of May

I wish people would ask themselves what benefit they gain from extra SAH time.It should be clear that if the benefit is only a delay then it is not worth it. OTOH, if the extra SAH time leads to improved outcomes afterwards then a reasonable argument has been made.

 

[Singuy]

What exactly the hell do Elon's personal opinions about the coronavirus have to do with Tesla, and what exactly is relevant to Tesla during their goddamned earnings call that makes it an ideal platform for Elon to express those opinions? Suffice it to say that a person's individual opinions don't have anything to do with how he runs his company, and you conflating these things is a sign you don't understand this.

Elon is entitled to his opinions, whether they be right or wrong, and he has the same right to express his opinions as anyone else, but what makes him think the Tesla quarterly earnings call is the best time for him to be expressing them? Do you also agree that Elon should be calling random people pedophiles? Do you understand that this sort of thing is not productive for the goals he has set for himself and his company and for humanity?

I don't even think Elon is wrong. I think he has a very good point, and as someone who actually grew up in South Africa he has more experience with government authoritarianism than any of us would ever imagine. But come on. This is a really stupid unforced error. For someone who has a reputation for thinking with first principles, surely he must see that this is straight up unproductive. I don't really know.

Perhaps Elon is rallying up his fans and non fans to write/call and protest against the extension in which at least the bay area wouldn't extend indefinitely as if Cali has started some kind of utopia UBI program for all. You sure this is not first principle thinking? You tried to reason with the government officials and hit a dead end..well now get every voter to do it so perhaps there's more weight because if you break down who holds the power, the people holds the power. It's like a last resort after you have tried everything. The earnings letter LITERALLY DID NOT GIVE ANY CERTAINTY OF WHEN MANUFACTURING WILL BEGIN! This means upper management and Elon is thinking based on the recent extension after negotiations, this can go on indefinitely and something needs to be done. So he did it..and he is still doing it on twitter right now.

 

[SageBrush]

I know if you don’t open the economy it will eventually cause a depression.

That does not begin to substantiate your earlier post.

 

[Rammstein]

That does not begin to substantiate your earlier post.

Not going to look it up for you. I think the Great Depression is enough to show you what can happen.

ok I just googled it. Apparently 7 million people died from starvation from the Great Depression. I can’t believe I had to google this shi... I would of thought what I said is obvious!

 

[Krugerrand]

The reason Elon’s personal non company related behavior has always mattered to Tesla is because so much of Tesla’s brand is Elon’s brand and he’s done so by choice. You fanboys don’t seem to realize how pissed off these comments make the average person. Support for lockdown is still super high across both parties and most people view C19 much, much more seriously than Elon does.

he’s coming off like a rich asshole that just wants his factories to re-open. This will hurt Tesla’s brand if it continues. These are the type of PR blunders that you end up needing crisis firms and what not to wipe the stink off

Actually, you’re wrong. Since I live in one of those 6 counties and know people in 4 of those counties, I can tell you that a lot of people are reaching their limit and getting extremely frustrated with the third extension of the shelter in place order. Each order getting more and more stringent. Including people who are still allowed to work. I took a moment yesterday at the grocery store to interact with the employees and they all expressed levels of stress, frustration, weariness... They’re over it and they’re the lucky ones.

 

[UCF3]

@FrankSG why do you think that Giga Texas would be 100% dedicated to battery production and not have a line for Cybertruck?

 

[Steve m]

Last I checked governments are elected by the people for the people, and 80% of Americans support the SIP measures to suppress the spread and a similar number express willingness for measures to extend through the middle of May according to this survey. If he had a concrete plan to submit to the authorities we should have heard about it with this ER as the substance of his protest, not childish rants about facism and political bromides.

Even if 99% agree that doesn't supersede the constitution, not without changing the constitution.

Musk and Tesla do have a plan on how to re-open the Fremont plant. It includes, masks, gloves, physical separation, cleaning high contact surfaces often, measuring temperatures of employees before they are allowed in the factory.

Just like they are planing to do at the Reno Gigafactory.

www.teslarati.com/tesla-giga-nevada-reopen-may-4/

 

[Steve m]

Elon Musk on Twitter

Yep the science California is using has a problem

 

[Krugerrand]

because it isn't realistic? I don't see how the CA governor would let this go on far longer in the Bay Area vs the rest of California. The Bay Area isn't the only population center.

He publicly stated he would not prevent the Bay Area counties or any other if they wanted to follow more stringent plans. Yes, he did.

 

[azaz]

Actually, you’re wrong. Since I live in one of those 6 counties and know people in 4 of those counties, I can tell you that a lot of people are reaching their limit and getting extremely frustrated with the third extension of the shelter in place order. Each order getting more and more stringent. Including people who are still allowed to work. I took a moment yesterday at the grocery store to interact with the employees and they all expressed levels of stress, frustration, weariness... They’re over it and they’re the lucky ones.

no I’m not wrong, my statement was based on polling not on random anecdotes

 

[ZachF]

You know that how ?

Desperate people do stupid things... During the Great Depression, the worlds second largest industrial power had unemployment reach 33%, and they elected a strong leader to fix their problems...


Am I saying this is going to happen? ...no, but but with severe socioeconomic pain the chance of true ugliness grows exponentially. It just needs to be a factor in the solving of this problem.

 

[Singuy]

Elon Musk on Twitter

Yep the science California is using has a problem

Telling you guys my hospital was expecting some kind of mass casualty incident. We had back up tents and trained extra people. Yes, there was a peak of patients...that number was 14 Covid+ in our hospital of 800 beds, now Covid+ is down to just 1. But since we can't have elective surgeries and the streets being empty due to stay at home, our ER visit dropped like a rock. Our hospital is so empty that it's scary and people are afraid of a second round of furlough after the first trim of 20% of our staff. We get it, curve have been flatten.

 

[MTL_HABS1909]

no I’m not wrong, my statement was based on polling not on random anecdotes

Polling also said Hillary would win the election. I rest my case.

 

[SageBrush]

I think it’s obvious this will cause a ton of deaths.

Skip obvious to you. Show data

 

[StealthP3D]

It was so refreshing to hear Guy Adami admit he's fully clueless on evaluating TSLA.

I respect that.

I agree. I love it when dumb, clueless people admit they are dumb and clueless.

It's a good way to demonstrate that a few people exist that are even more clueless than yourself! Yes, I'm talking about the people who think they could do a better job than Elon!

 

[Rammstein]

Skip obvious to you. Show data

7 million deaths