Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Krugerrand]

Fremont? I think its 4days x 10hrs, 4-days-on,4-off. I'd ask a local though. Paging @Krugerrand

No idea what China is doing. I suspect they can do whatever Tesla needs them to do to reach goals.

In Fremont from what I’ve read and heard, different departments, different work schedules. Some 2-shifts a day, some 3-shifts, some AWS. Put your hand into your hat and pulled out a rabbit.

 

[Krugerrand]

Maybe it's a Machiavellian ploy and not just being a dumb-dumb, but Elon has to be careful not to alienate the already pro-Tesla crowd.

Why? Will there be a demand issue then?

Just what we need, more VCs who think they are more important than they really are having more influence on the safety and health of the Bay Area population

Show me where any of those people are suggesting safety and health should be ignored.

Let’s just get to the chase, ok? Is it your opinion that currently there is no way, no adequate protocol procedures that could be put into place that would allow Tesla to reopen their factory without significantly increasing risk of Covid-19 infection of their employees?

 

[Rarity]

I assume that the ~$300 million in regulatory credits that were accrued but not yet paid was the FCA deal. One near-term risk that I wonder about is an FCA bankruptcy leading to jettisoning these commitments. Another is that Tesla can't deliver/sell cars to Europe to fulfill the deal (especially in Q2) because of the shutdown in Fremont.

 

[Krugerrand]

I assume that the ~$300 million in regulatory credits that was accrued but not yet paid was the FCA deal. One near-term risk that I wonder about is an FCA bankruptcy leading to jettisoning these commitments.

How is that a risk to Tesla? Are you suggesting that Tesla will go bankrupt without those credits? That somehow $8 billion is < $300 million?

 

[Prunesquallor]

I assume that the ~$300 million in regulatory credits that was accrued but not yet paid was the FCA deal. One near-term risk that I wonder about is of an FCA bankruptcy leading to jettisoning these commitments.

Remember the FCA-PSA merger. Not sure if everything is finalized, but I think all obstacles had been addressed. Should stave of bankruptcy for a while, I would think.

Having said that, I have never seen anywhere what the merger's implications are for the FCA/Tesla deal.

 

[Rarity]

How is that a risk to Tesla? Are you suggesting that Tesla will go bankrupt without those credits? That somehow $8 billion is < $300 million?

Not at all. It seems that much of the gravy in Q1 was the FCA deal. FCA's bankruptcy could lead to that gravy going away and could complicate Tesla obtaining the cash for prior quarters.

 

[Right_Said_Fred]

Okay, MMs have parked the car at 750. I'm taking the rest of the day off.

Edit: they forgot to put the handbrake on

 

[Prunesquallor]

From the 10-Q:



Correct me if I'm interpreting this wrong, but this sounds like all $354M in credits from this quarter came from this quarter, rather than from the deferred credits balance. So that must mean this is the FCA Deal in action as of Q1'20, and this level of credits is sustainable going forward, and will perhaps even increase if Tesla sells more EVs in EU and/or if the % of Fiat's sales that are EVs drops.

Has there been consensus on this? Specifically, do we interpret the $345M as FCA payments to Tesla in Q1 as part of the pooling agreement? I was going to try to reverse-engineer the pooling deal.

 

[Rarity]

Remember the FCA-PSA merger. Not sure if everything is finalized, but I think all obstacles had been addressed. Should stave of bankruptcy for a while, I would think.

Having said that, I have never seen anywhere what the merger's implications are for the FCA/Tesla deal.

Good point that there is a larger context of the merger, but would it actually stave off bankruptcy? I don't have a good sense of this and it could hinge on politics.

Like you, I would be interested in hearing thoughts of the implications of the merger. Earlier this year, the FCA/Tesla pool was reopened. I assumed that this was to allow the PSA and FCA/Tesla pools to merge. But I don't know what, if anything, has happened subsequently.

 

[Prunesquallor]

Good point that there is a larger context of the merger, but would it actually stave off bankruptcy? I don't have a good sense of this and it could hinge on politics.

Like you, I would be interested in hearing thoughts of the implications of the merger. Earlier this year, the FCA/Tesla pool was reopened. I assumed that this was to allow the PSA and FCA/Tesla pools to merge. But I don't know what has happened subsequently.

Do you have links to the reopening? I had not heard that.

 

[Krugerrand]

Not at all. It seems that much of the gravy in Q1 was the FCA deal. FCA's bankruptcy could lead to that gravy going away and could complicate Tesla obtaining the cash for prior quarters.

Okay, so then it’s not a near term risk as you stated, at least not to Tesla. It’s just a matter of possibly no cherry on top, which in no way affects the rest of the very delicious chocolate sundae that is Tesla. It might, however, cause TSLA to remain volatile short term depending on how important the market deems the cherry to overall appeal of the chocolate sundae?

Sorry to nitpick, but it’s recently come to my attention that I am not clear enough in my writing. So I will now hold myself and everyone else to the absurd standard of even a goat will understand.

 

[LJS22]

From now on Tesla should announce earnings on Friday afternoon!

 

[woodisgood]

Okay, MMs have parked the car at 750. I'm taking the rest of the day off.

Pretty generous for put holders if maxpain is really around 785.

 

[j6Lpi429@3j]

When a stock falls on good news I won't buy it for at least 3 days. It means there's more happening than meets the eye - in Tesla's case probably shorts attacking aggressively.

very true, but they give up eventually, and I have no time limit. The way I see it, we dont have an opening date for freemont right now. That date might be next week, or next month, but it *will* happen, and when it does, obviously the stock is going to bump up. It feels like free money frankly to grab some now.
If its nicely in profit monday I might take the winnings but if not, I'll wwait for the re-open.

I still have 1,100 long term shares anyway

 

[Unpilot]

Okay, so then it’s not a near term risk as you stated, at least not to Tesla. It’s just a matter of possibly no cherry on top, which in no way affects the rest of the very delicious chocolate sundae that is Tesla. It might, however, cause TSLA to remain volatile short term depending on how important the market deems the cherry to overall appeal of the chocolate sundae?

Sorry to nitpick, but it’s recently come to my attention that I am not clear enough in my writing. So I will now hold myself and everyone else to the absurd standard of even a goat will understand.

Please explain further...bleeet

 

[Rarity]

Do you have links to the reopening? I had not heard that.

No I don't. I believe it is was mentioned on one of the 7,995 pages of this thread.

 

[Rarity]

Okay, so then it’s not a near term risk as you stated, at least not to Tesla. It’s just a matter of possibly no cherry on top, which in no way affects the rest of the very delicious chocolate sundae that is Tesla. It might, however, cause TSLA to remain volatile short term depending on how important the market deems the cherry to overall appeal of the chocolate sundae?

Sorry to nitpick, but it’s recently come to my attention that I am not clear enough in my writing. So I will now hold myself and everyone else to the absurd standard of even a goat will understand.

What do you consider near-term? Given the turbulence in the world, I wouldn't be surprised to see FCA make a modestly-sized crater, starting on May 5 when it announces earnings.

 

[FrankSG]

Has there been consensus on this? Specifically, do we interpret the $345M as FCA payments to Tesla in Q1 as part of the pooling agreement? I was going to try to reverse-engineer the pooling deal.

It doesn't explicitly say in the 10-Q, but what I'm assuming is the break down of tax creds from Q1 is:

-About $135M in recurring creds similar to last few quarters.
-An additional ~$200M from the FCA deal.

Obviously other things could be going on, but this is what I'm assuming for now and basing my model off of going forward, while keeping in the back of my mind that the assumption could be wrong.

 

[Mader Levap]

Show me where any of those people are suggesting safety and health should be ignored.

Assumption is that, like with politicians wanting to prematurely open economy and being fine with rising risk of death of your grandparents and people in general due to overwhelmed healthcare, these guys are same. It is easy to sacrifice something that you don't care about. Profits are more important than human life and all of that.

I consider "masks and social distancing can serve as effective measures without the need for extreme shelter-in-place orders" empty platitudes. Some jobs simply cannot be done while observing social distancing rules.

 

[Unpilot]

It must be get close to 11.