Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[ZeApelido]

I get into this with my co-workers all the time. They look at tsla stock price "ooh that's too much , no way, i'll wait till it hits under $400". And when it goes to $350's like recently, "ooh, i'll wait till it goes under $300". Well congrats you just missed out on 2x'ing your money in a month, much less 10x'ing in 5 years.

instead, hey look, the etf JETS is cheap, i'll spend $3k or $5k on that, hey disney(DIS) is cheap, wow i'll get another $2k of that.

It may seem expensive but they need to realize Tesla is the safest bet of any comoany to 5x, 10x, and 20x their current market cap

 

[Steve m]

It’s a dynamic situation, when the facts change we should be able to change our minds.
And if we access wrongly we can still adjust course. Nobody here has perfect insight.
The macro picture is disruptive and most are clueless on the path forward.
If revenues are slow to recover, it’s not clear how the stock price holds.

If the facts had change such as to justify an 8 to 1 multiplier then you should be able to state what those facts were..

For example, a dog took a dump on the left side of my driveway... Oh my god panic panic sell sell sell Tesla is going to drop to half..... Oh wait another dog took a dump on the right side of my driveway. Never mind everything is going to be fine TSLA is going to double.

Now with that info a reader can decide if the reasoning is rational and usable or not.

By the way the above is not investing advice.

 

[LJS22]

TSLA is making an early run for it.

Edit: And rats. Jinxed it. xD

We shall bring out the cybertruck to break these 790 and 800 walls. Nothing stops greatness!

 

[RobStark]

https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2020/05/06/congress-auto-industry-aid/

Congress is preparing another bailout for "auto" industry. Doesn't seem Tesla is on the list.

There is nothing in that article to suggest Tesla is being excluded,

Again, the Congressional delegations of California and Nevada would not be doing their jobs if Tesla were to be excluded from an auto industry relief package. I doubt that level of incompetence.

 

[Unpilot]

I have been eyeballing some 800 dollar edible hats lately.

 

[feigen66]

There is nothing in that article to suggest Tesla is being excluded,

Again, the Congressional delegations of California and Nevada would not be doing their jobs if Tesla were to be excluded from an auto industry relief package. I doubt that level of incompetence.

Seeing how Newsom let Alameda sabotage the Fremont factory, I am not that confidence.

 

[kelly]

Decisions are best made when having a complete picture. Some adults here were mislead in the past because of bad information. The point is to help us all find the truth.

What part of "Not an advice" did these adults not understand?

And since you have mentioned twice now that people "were mislead because of bad information," I don't recall anyone reporting that. Wasn't you, was it?

 

[Mo City]

The post you quoted in your response may not have been your intended post to respond to (that has happened before), but that post does have a link:



Admittedly, @UCF3 didn't elaborate on why he concluded what he concluded from the link, but there is a link there. So it could be that you're looking for elaboration on why he concludes from the article why this should help TSLA. In which case a question would advance the conversation, rather than a declaration that doesn't help us understand this dynamic.

Duh, I read the link and it does not support his point at all.

Can we end the nattering and move on to productive discussion?

 

[LJS22]

The truth of the stock market is...if you want to make slow gains in a 5-10 year period your odds are good. If you want to make money quick then you are going to learn an expensive lesson.

 

[jerry33]

There is nothing in that article to suggest Tesla is being excluded,

Again, the Congressional delegations of California and Nevada would not be doing their jobs if Tesla were to be excluded from an auto industry relief package. I doubt that level of incompetence.

It depends on what they think their job is. If it's to support fossil fuels, which it appears to be then...

 

[pyromatter]

 

[Khamul]

It's an hour and forty minute interview (not gonna happen).

Care to provide a summary? TIA.

I don't have time to summarize the whole interview, and I can't recall all the details - I have a really rotten short term memory - but here's a couple things I do recall:

Alex has been following TSLA for many years - 10-15? Can't recall. Anyway, the first many years his customers/investors would completely ignore Tesla, but the last year or two they have become much more interested, and are starting to take it very serious.

It's impossible for an analyst to concentrate on just one company, due to the risk, so they have a portfolio of 20+ companies they follow. While Tesla could keep analysts employed full-time, they just don't have time to keep up with everything that happens.

Alex has a model that he inputs data in. A lot of the data on Tesla, especially Tesla Energy, does not fit into the model and/or are too complex and/or liable to change rapidly. It's not that he doesn't think that Tesla Energy can't become a big part of Tesla, but he can't fit it into his model.

In general, he's very bullish on Tesla, but he also has to be credible to his customers, so he can't take into account Elon's goals of 20 million cars by 2030, for example; there's too high risk that something is going to change - like what if robotaxies become a thing, what then?

He doesn't see much competition - new upstarts won't have the "protection" Tesla had, where others basically ignored them and let them do their things. Legacy automakers are tied to their old ways, and will have many difficulties changing around.

Elon's recent tweets doesn't matter much to him - the occasional tweetstorm is included in his model (or at least his analysis), and in this case he saw it as intended to influence Newson and co.

Alex spend a lot of time in China, but not recently, for obvious reasons, but he's bullish on Teslas situation there. The native automakers are very dependent on subsidies, and while Tesla might sell a few more cars with higher subsidies, their cars are so good that they will sell anyway, while the chinese cars are lacking. He doesn't see high risk in china punishing Tesla in retaliation for Trumps actions toward them - it'd be a complete, utter 180 degree turnabout if they did.


The first comment on the video has timestamps, if there's a particular segment that's of interest.

 

[Steve m]

Tesla China sees 1k Model 3 reservations daily after Labor Day celebration

Chinese buy Teslas faster then they can be built..

Damn demand problem again

 

[JRP3]

Wasn't you, was it?

No, I saw what was going on from the beginning. Some who bought into the hype have admitted it. Poor decisions influenced by giving undeserved credibility. A few of you seem to be arguing for allowing misleading posting to go unchecked. That should never happen.

 

[capster]

I have followed Tesla since 2013 and bought my first shares at $100 and have since acquired more along the way. I am long and Hodl-ing …..One day I'll get a Tesla – maybe even from share profit!

For 6 years through the Model S motor whining; the Model X delays and hubris; the Model 3 painful ramp-up and all the other excitements and dramas, I have gone onto TMC Forums on a daily basis for information; intense discussion; wise comments and so on.

I, like many others, was sad to see Factchecking and Karen leave (and some others along the way) but I hung in there as there was usually something valuable.

Sadly I now find TMC to have dropped to a level that is often petty; personal; picky; trite and banal. It feels more like lazy social media now with endless worthless and personal comments. The nit-picking about the Model Y gets just irritating. Following the Munro teardown, it is clear there is a fantastic vehicle in there. If one goes to a brilliant restaurant, clearly misaligned cutlery or poor service is 'unacceptable' but does it warrant public venting and shaming?

I do wonder if these posters aren't just dressed up trolls....Take it up with Tesla by all means but does it really make you feel good to air this so publicly and to sound so petty? Real first world problems!

Of course there are still gems on TMC but those are now fewer so I will stop reading every day. I will return infrequently and if there is any serious Tesla news I'll return for a rain check. I thought the general response to Elon over the last few weeks has been as unmeasured and unwelcome as Elon's comments. Some were just way over the top and often by posters whom I'd grown to respect.

I feel part of the problem maybe that Tesla is now more mainstream and the posters are no longer the pioneering crowd but the general disgruntled and negative public – many original posters anticipated this change long ago...…

Maybe Corona and lockdown has got to people and we're all cabin-fever mad and self feeding. But to assist me getting through this time, I'm going to go cold turkey on TMC for a while. I'll leave those of you who enjoy bitching and scrapping and moaning to get on with it.....

And how much @Sunlight have you personally shined here in this thread?

I’m not saying that people should chatter for the sake of it, just that it’s easy to complain — especially during the challenging times you note.

Another approach besides "Hey, I’m outta here cause I’m not getting as much golden wisdom as I used to for free and to which I feel I’m entitled because [insert jejune rationale]," is to learn something useful you could then add to the conversation.

Not that I’ve made a great number of posts, but I do try to contribute something worthwhile when I do post.

 

[Artful Dodger]

I have been eyeballing some 800 dollar edible hats lately.

... and we got a real gumfight goin' inta da Close.

EDIT: The latest GF3 drone video by WuWa shows INCREDIBLE progress on construction. FIVE structures going up simultaneously. Wowers!

How long until GF3 has higher daily production than Fremont? And remember for the purposes of TSLA, its gonna be Fremont + GF3 = Production.

Cheers!

 

[StealthP3D]

There is nothing in that article to suggest Tesla is being excluded

Hmmmm....Then when they were talking about using incentives to juice car sales, why did they use the metaphor "prime the pump"?

Now had they said "spark new sales" or "supercharge sales".....but no, it was "prime the pump".

 

[LN1_Casey]

Hmmmm....Then when they were talking about using incentives to juice car sales, why did they use the metaphor "prime the pump"?

Now had they said "spark new sales" or "supercharge sales".....but no, it was "prime the pump".

The model Y has that new heat pump, and it needs to be primed before it operates.

 

[Steve m]

Alameda County Commissioners can be recalled.

http://www.acgov.org/rov/documents/Guide-Recall-v2.pdf

 

[RobStark]

Seeing how Newsom let Alameda sabotage the Fremont factory, I am not that confidence.

The downside for Newsom of authorizing Tesla to open is if Tesla becomes a hotspot for coronavirus. He doesn't want to risk taking the blame.

What is the downside for Congress critters of getting Tesla included in the automotive relief package?

There will just be pissed off constituents and their families if the fail to bring home the pork.